322 e lusive v ictories
Nothing Bush said about Iraq by this point registered with the
American people. Throughout his last two years, the president’s
approval ratings remained below 40 percent. Th e public had soured on
its limited investment in Iraq; even the continuing signs of progress in
curbing violence and the sharp reduction in American casualties did
not improve the citizenry’s view. For a time it appeared the war might
again be an issue in the 2008 election. Republican John McCain, who
had been an early and outspoken advocate of increasing the number of
U.S. troops in Iraq, hoped to convert the good news into political gain.
Voters did not respond, however, leaving his opponent, Senator Barack
Obama (an early foe of the war) free to focus on other issues. Th e fi nan-
cial crisis that struck in September 2008 turned the contest decisively
into a referendum on domestic issues.
Final Reckoning
Th ree-plus years after George W. Bush left offi ce, the fate of Iraq still
hangs in the balance. Th e American combat role has concluded, the last
troops departing at the end of 2011. But Iraq continues to suff er from
endemic, low-level violence that periodically threatens to escalate. For
example, in March 2011 a possible clash between Kurds and Arabs in
Kirkuk resulted in a deployment of U.S. troops to calm tensions.
Henceforth it will be up to the Iraqis to resolve such disputes. Many
Iraqis fear the American departure will open the fl oodgates to new
sectarian violence.
Elsewhere across the Arab world, early 2011 saw widespread popular
uprisings, with dictators toppled in Tunisia and Egypt and massive
demonstrations in Libya, Syria, Jordan, Bahrain, Yemen, and elsewhere.
In none of these places did the protestors evoke Iraq as a model for the
political and social reforms they sought. Ironically, during Bush’s last
years, American military leaders and policy makers admitted privately
they would be relieved to see the emergence of an American-leaning
Iraqi strongman along the lines of Hosni Mubarak, Egypt’s now-
deposed dictator. Prime Minister Maliki may yet fi t the bill: in 2011 his
security forces repressed youthful Iraqi protestors seeking to bring the
spirit of reform to their country. Events plainly have bypassed any
vision of a democratic Iraq ushering in a new era in the Middle East.