The Economist - USA (2020-10-17)

76 The EconomistOctober 17th 2020

Economic data

Gross domestic product Consumer prices Unemployment Current-account Budget Interest rates Currency units

% change on year ago % change on year ago rate balance balance 10-yr gov't bonds change on per $ % change

latest quarter* 2020† latest 2020† % % of GDP, 2020† % of GDP, 2020† latest,% year ago, bp Oct 14th on year ago

United States -9.0 Q2 -31.4 -5.3 1.4 Sep 0.7 7.9 Sep -1.8 -15.3 0.7 -103 -

China 3.2 Q2 54.6 1.7 1.7 Sep 3.5 3.8 Q2§ 1.8 -5.6 3.1 §§ 10.0 6.74 4.9

Japan -9.9 Q2 -28.1 -6.4 0.2 Aug nil 3.0 Aug 2.5 -10.6 nil -8.0 105 3.1

Britain -21.5 Q2 -58.7 -9.5 0.2 Aug 0.8 4.5 Jul†† -1.7 -18.2 0.3 -39.0 0.77 2.6

Canada -13.0 Q2 -38.7 -5.8 0.1 Aug 0.7 9.0 Sep -2.1 -13.0 0.6 -94.0 1.31 0.8

Euro area -14.7 Q2 -39.4 -8.4 -0.3 Sep 0.3 8.1 Aug 2.2 -9.2 -0.6 -11.0 0.85 7.1

Austria -14.3 Q2 -38.2 -6.4 1.4 Aug 1.1 5.0 Aug 1.0 -7.4 -0.4 -21.0 0.85 7.1

Belgium -14.4 Q2 -40.2 -8.1 0.9 Sep 0.4 5.1 Aug -1.6 -9.6 -0.3 -18.0 0.85 7.1

France -18.9 Q2 -44.8 -10.2 0.1 Sep 0.7 7.5 Aug -1.0 -11.3 -0.3 -12.0 0.85 7.1

Germany -11.3 Q2 -33.5 -5.8 -0.2 Sep 0.5 4.4 Aug 5.4 -7.2 -0.6 -11.0 0.85 7.1

Greece -15.3 Q2 -45.4 -8.5 -2.0 Sep -1.0 16.8 Jul -2.9 -7.5 0.8 -69.0 0.85 7.1

Italy -18.0 Q2 -42.8 -10.4 -0.5 Sep nil 9.7 Aug 2.6 -11.6 0.7 -35.0 0.85 7.1

Netherlands -9.4 Q2 -30.0 -6.0 1.1 Sep 0.9 3.8 Mar 5.3 -5.4 -0.5 -21.0 0.85 7.1

Spain -21.5 Q2 -54.3 -12.6 -0.4 Sep -0.1 16.2 Aug 0.5 -12.3 0.1 -4.0 0.85 7.1

Czech Republic -10.8 Q2 -30.4 -6.6 3.2 Sep 2.8 2.8 Aug‡ -1.3 -6.6 1.0 -28.0 23.2 1.0

Denmark -7.6 Q2 -24.6 -4.0 0.6 Sep 0.4 4.9 Aug 9.1 -6.3 -0.5 -2.0 6.33 7.0

Norway -4.7 Q2 -19.0 -3.5 1.6 Sep 1.2 5.2 Jul‡‡ 1.8 -0.9 0.7 -51.0 9.19 -0.9

Poland -8.0 Q2 -31.1 -4.1 3.2 Sep 3.1 6.1 Sep§ 0.5 -9.3 1.3 -72.0 3.84 1.3

Russia -8.0 Q2 na -5.7 3.7 Sep 3.4 6.4 Aug§ 1.8 -4.3 6.2 -59.0 77.5 -17.0

Sweden -7.7 Q2 -29.3 -3.8 0.4 Sep 0.4 8.8 Aug§ 4.7 -4.1 nil 15.0 8.82 11.3

Switzerland -8.3 Q2 -26.1 -4.6 -0.8 Sep -1.1 3.3 Sep 9.8 -4.9 -0.5 15.0 0.91 9.9

Turkey -9.9 Q2 na -3.9 11.7 Sep 11.7 13.4 Jul§ -4.1 -5.6 13.2 -194 7.90 -24.8

Australia -6.3 Q2 -25.2 -4.5 -0.3 Q2 0.5 6.9 Sep 1.3 -7.6 0.8 -21.0 1.39 6.5

Hong Kong -9.0 Q2 -0.5 -4.2 -0.5 Aug 0.9 6.1 Aug‡‡ 4.4 -5.8 0.5 -89.0 7.75 1.2

India -23.9 Q2 -69.4 -8.5 7.3 Sep 5.2 6.7 Sep 0.9 -7.9 5.9 -77.0 73.3 -2.9

Indonesia -5.3 Q2 na -2.2 1.4 Sep 1.9 5.0 Q1§ -1.1 -7.1 6.8 -41.0 14,710 -3.9

Malaysia -17.1 Q2 na -8.0 -1.4 Aug -1.1 4.7 Aug§ 0.5 -8.0 2.7 -72.0 4.15 1.0

Pakistan 0.5 2020** na -2.8 9.0 Sep 9.0 5.8 2018 -1.3 -8.0 9.8 ††† -153 164 -4.7

Philippines -16.5 Q2 -48.3 -6.1 2.3 Sep 2.4 10.0 Q3§ 0.9 -7.9 2.9 -179 48.6 6.0

Singapore -7.0 Q3 35.4 -6.0 -0.4 Aug -0.4 2.8 Q2 18.5 -13.6 0.9 -81.0 1.36 0.7

South Korea -2.8 Q2 -12.0 -1.5 1.0 Sep 0.5 3.1 Aug§ 3.0 -5.8 1.5 2.0 1,147 3.3

Taiwan -0.6 Q2 -5.5 -0.2 -0.6 Sep -0.3 3.8 Aug 12.3 -1.5 0.3 -38.0 28.7 6.6

Thailand -12.2 Q2 -33.4 -5.9 -0.7 Sep -0.7 1.9 Aug§ 3.1 -6.3 1.1 -24.0 31.2 -2.5

Argentina -19.1 Q2 -50.7 -11.0 36.6 Sep‡ 41.7 13.1 Q2§ 2.2 -10.0 na -464 77.4 -25.0

Brazil -11.4 Q2 -33.5 -5.2 3.1 Sep 2.8 13.8 Jul§‡‡ -0.7 -15.7 2.1 -250 5.56 -25.7

Chile -14.1 Q2 -43.3 -5.6 3.1 Sep 2.6 12.9 Aug§‡‡ 0.2 -10.0 2.6 -17.0 798 -10.8

Colombia -15.5 Q2 -47.6 -7.7 2.0 Sep 2.6 16.8 Aug§ -4.6 -8.8 5.0 -78.0 3,845 -10.8

Mexico -18.7 Q2 -52.7 -9.1 4.0 Sep 3.4 3.3 Mar 0.4 -4.5 5.7 -101 21.3 -9.4

Peru -30.2 Q2 -72.1 -13.0 1.8 Sep 1.8 18.2 Aug§ -0.8 -9.0 3.3 -72.0 3.59 -6.4

Egypt -1.7 Q2 na 3.8 3.6 Sep 4.9 9.6 Q2§ -3.4 -9.4 na nil 15.7 3.5

Israel -6.8 Q2 -29.0 -5.0 -0.8 Aug -1.1 4.9 Aug 4.5 -10.2 0.7 -13.0 3.37 4.2

Saudi Arabia 0.3 2019 na -5.2 6.1 Aug 3.4 9.0 Q2 -4.7 -10.0 na nil 3.75 nil

South Africa -17.1 Q2 -51.0 -8.0 3.0 Aug 3.3 23.3 Q2§ -2.3 -16.0 9.4 120 16.5 -10.3

Source: Haver Analytics. *% change on previous quarter, annual rate. †The Economist Intelligence Unit estimate/forecast. §Not seasonally adjusted. ‡New series. **Year ending June. ††Latest 3 months. ‡‡3-month moving

average. §§5-year yield. †††Dollar-denominated bonds.

Commodities

TheEconomist commodity-price index % change on

2015=100 Oct 6th Oct 13th* month year

DollarIndex

AllItems 127.5 128.1 -1.7 15.7

Food 103.9 104.7 3.7 9.9

Industrials

All 149.5 150.0 -4.9 19.8

Non-foodagriculturals 102.9 103.6 -8.5 10.7

Metals 163.3 163.7 -4.2 21.7

SterlingIndex

Allitems 150.0 150.6 -2.7 13.8

EuroIndex

Allitems 119.9 121.0 -0.8 8.7

Gold

$ peroz 1,913.0 1,891.6 -3.2 27.7

Brent

$ perbarrel 42.8 42.5 4.7 -28.3

Sources:Bloomberg; CME Group; Cotlook; Datastream from Refinitiv;

Fastmarkets;FT; ICCO; ICO; ISO; Live Rice Index; LME; NZ Wool

Services;Thompson Lloyd & Ewart; Urner Barry; WSJ. *Provisional.

Markets

% change on: % change on:

Index one Dec 31st index one Dec 31st

In local currency Oct 14th week 2019 Oct 14th week 2019

United States S&P 500 3,488.7 2.0 8.0

United States NAScomp 11,768.7 3.6 31.2

China Shanghai Comp 3,340.8 3.8 9.5

China Shenzhen Comp 2,290.4 6.6 32.9

Japan Nikkei 225 23,626.7 0.9 -0.1

Japan Topix 1,643.9 -0.2 -4.5

Britain FTSE 100 5,935.1 -0.2 -21.3

Canada S&P TSX 16,455.4 0.2 -3.6

Euro area EURO STOXX 50 3,273.3 1.2 -12.6

France CAC 40 4,941.7 1.2 -17.3

Germany DAX* 13,028.1 0.8 -1.7

Italy FTSE/MIB 19,607.7 0.9 -16.6

Netherlands AEX 572.0 3.1 -5.4

Spain IBEX 35 6,916.6 0.1 -27.6

Poland WIG 48,596.5 -3.2 -16.0

Russia RTS, $ terms 1,160.3 1.4 -25.1

Switzerland SMI 10,292.7 1.0 -3.1

Tu r ke y BIST 1,189.3 3.2 3.9

Australia All Ord. 6,387.4 2.4 -6.1

Hong Kong Hang Seng 24,667.1 1.7 -12.5

India BSE 40,794.7 2.3 -1.1

Indonesia IDX 5,176.1 3.4 -17.8

Malaysia KLSE 1,523.3 2.3 -4.1

Pakistan KSE 40,144.3 0.7 -1.5

Singapore STI 2,555.6 0.7 -20.7

South Korea KOSPI 2,380.5 -0.3 8.3

Taiwan TWI 12,919.3 1.4 7.7

Thailand SET 1,264.0 nil -20.0

Argentina MERV 47,295.3 5.7 13.5

Brazil BVSP 99,334.4 4.0 -14.1

Mexico IPC 38,025.7 1.6 -12.7

Egypt EGX 30 11,333.9 0.1 -18.8

Israel TA-125 1,413.8 2.0 -12.5

Saudi Arabia Tadawul 8,592.1 2.8 2.4

South Africa JSE AS 55,394.2 1.2 -3.0

World, dev'd MSCI 2,453.6 1.8 4.0

Emerging markets MSCI 1,135.6 2.5 1.9

US corporate bonds, spread over Treasuries

Dec 31st

Basis points latest 2019

Investment grade 171 141

High-yield 547 449

Sources: Datastream from Refinitiv; Standard & Poor's Global Fixed

Income Research. *Total return index.

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