the times | Saturday October 17 2020 2GM 7
News
When Britain was about to enter its
lockdown in March Boris Johnson was
explicit: the government would “follow
the science” to fight the pandemic.
A few months later, with debate
raging over how to ease restrictions,
there was less talk about following
science and more of being guided by it.
With the country facing another
widespread economic shutdown with
no clear end date, the emphasis has
changed again.
Cabinet ministers, normally loyal
backbench MPs and even those around
the prime minister have begun ques-
tioning “the science” and are increas-
ingly distrustful of those whose advice
was once seen as gospel.
“We’ve begun to hate the scientists,”
said one Tory MP who has supported
the government on all the votes on re-
strictions. “You’ve got these guys on
Sage briefing journalists, going on the
telly saying the PM must bring in a
national lockdown. Why are they
allowed to do that? You are either part
of the team or you’re not. You can be an
independent scientist and say what you
like. You can’t be part of Sage and go on
telly saying they need to do this.”
Another said: “The only reason
[Chris] Whitty and [Sir Patrick] Val-
lance are calling for harsher measures
is they’re shitting themselves over the
public inquiry. They don’t want to face
questions on whether their advice was
the reason for 10,000 deaths.”
Downing Street insists that Mr John-
son has faith in Sage and the chief med-
ical and scientific officers. However,
there is irritation at the assertive way
the scientific advisers are pushing their
preferred course of action.
“Leaking is not well received by gov-
ernment — especially when it comes
from advisers promoting their own
interpretation of events,” one cabinet
minister said. “There is huge sympathy
for the position the prime minister is in
doing this incredibly difficult balancing
act. It is unhelpful if one side of the ar-
gument is leaking aggressively and say-
ing we are all doomed.
“You have to remember that [going
back to March] the scientists’ most
gloomy prognostications never hap-
pened. That must affect the confidence
in ‘the science’ now.”
Downing Street was blindsided last
month when Sage’s suggestion of a
national circuit breaker to control the
virus’s spread was leaked before many
people in No 10 had heard about it.
“Sage, in terms of briefing to the
press, is out of control,” one person
close to No 10 said. “If you have a seri-
ous briefing with Sage it will probably
leak within hours. You start to question
people’s motives. As soon as you are sit-
ting across from someone and you’re
thinking, ‘Are they telling me that
because they want me to know it or
because that’s what they want to brief
out?’, you’ve got a serious problem in
relationships. Ministers are question-
ing what they’re being told.”
There is also concern that the scien-to be tested at Heathrow next week
rules apply to the vast majority of
arrivals, with only about 40 countries
on the UK’s quarantine-free “travel
corridor” list.
Ministers have committed to testing
arrivals as part of a plan to reopen inter-
national travel, with detailed proposals
to be released early next month. It is
likely that travellers will initially have a
test after isolating for seven days,
potentially halving the existing two-
week quarantine period.
However, the government has also
proposed trial projects with countries
in which people will self-isolate and
take a test before they board a flight to
the UK. Strongly favoured by airlines
over tests on arrival, this would require
some form of common health “pass-
port” to log results. CommonPass,devised by a Swiss-based non-profit
foundation, has already been tested by
Cathay Pacific on flights between Hong
Kong and Singapore.
Next week, it will be employed by
passengers flying with United Airlines,
the US carrier, on the flight between
Heathrow and Newark. Several dozen
volunteers will be tested at Heathrow’s
dedicated testing facility which is run
by Collinson, a medical services firm.
The results will be uploaded to the
system alongside border question-
naires filled out by passengers.
CommonPass confirms a traveller’s
compliance with US border require-
ments and generates a QR code that
can be scanned by airline crew and bor-
der officials.
Staff from US Customs and BorderProtection and the US Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention will
observe the project and record how
easy it is to use.
Mark Burgess, process improvement
director at Heathrow, said: “For some
time now Heathrow has been calling
for the creation of a common inter-
national standard and cross-border
pilots as these could help governments
across the world and the industry to un-
lock the benefits of testing in aviation.”
A spokeswoman for the Department
for Transport said: “We are consulting
closely with partners from the aviation,
travel, healthcare and testing sectors as
well as the devolved administrations to
develop measures as quickly as possible
to support the recovery of the travel
sector.”News
PM tells Burnham
EDDIE MULHOLLAND/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGESTories now doubt
scientists they
pledged to follow
tists are using, or being used by, Labour.
Sir Keir Starmer is known to have had
confidential briefings from Sage mem-
bers before calling for a full national
lockdown. “They should know it just
makes it more difficult for Boris to do it
because it looks like he is following
Starmer,” one adviser said.
However, scientific advisers are
exasperated, too. Since Sage called for
tough action a month ago, the govern-
ment has issued work-from-home
advice that has largely been ignored,
and introduced a “rule of six” that actu-
ally relaxed restrictions on meeting
indoors. “A lot of these measures have
been useless”, one senior scientist said.
Advisers have been calling for more
support for people told to isolate by
contact tracers, after surveys showed
that people were going to work out of
financial necessity. There are fears that
the NHS Test and Trace system has
missed its moment to stay on top of the
pandemic and is unlikely to catch up
with spiralling infections. News that
some consultants working for the
scheme have been paid £6,250 a day
have added to disillusionment among
academics who are not paid for advis-
ing the government.
“If I added up all the hours I and
others have spent advising the govern-
ment and if we had been paid at these
rates, then we could all retire to the Sey-
chelles. No, we could buy the Sey-
chelles,” Professor Stephen Reicher, of
the Independent Scientific Pandemic
Influenza Group on Behaviours, said.
Critics of Sage have demanded that
there be greater economic input into
decision-making to balance the models
created by specialists. Some Sage mem-
bers, uncomfortable at the influence
they wield, have made the same point
themselves. Some advisers are framing
their arguments in economic terms.
If cases continue to increase, at some
point they will exceed NHS capacity,
the argument goes. If people die in hos-
pital car parks there will be no other
choice but another protracted national
lockdown. “The economy suffers badly
if the whole thing gets overwhelmed
and that’s when you end up having to do
more extreme measures,” one key
figure said.
Matt Hancock, the health secretary,
told MPs this week: “Delayed action
means more deaths from Covid, more
non-Covid deaths, and it means more
economic pain later, because the virus
comes down slower than it goes up. We
should stop it going up in the first place.
Unless we suppress the virus, we can-
not return to the economy we had.”
With lockdown-sceptic Conserva-
tive MPs becoming increasingly vocal,
the Treasury resisting closures of key
economic sectors and northern mayors
rebelling over Tier 3, there are no short-
ages of audience for this message. And
although several cabinet members
have concerns about how scientists are
dictating the politics they do not have
many better ideas.
“If you ask people in the cabinet indi-
vidually whether they are pro-lock
down you find most people are worried
about the economic consequences,”
one senior minister said. “But when you
say to them, ‘If you were prime minister
what would you do’ most say ‘If I was
being told by one side that if I get this
wrong I’ll be responsible for tens of
thousands of deaths I’d be following the
path the prime minister is following.’ ”Both sides are irritated
as serious leaks take a
toll on trust, Oliver
Wr ig ht, Chris Smyth
and Eleni Courea write