20 TheEconomistNovember 7th 2020
1I
n the earlydays of the covid-19 pan-
demic doctors were befuddled by a pecu-
liar phenomenon: some patients ill
enough to be admitted to hospital seemed
at first to respond well to treatment, recov-
ering almost enough to be discharged, be-
fore suddenly deteriorating again. Europe
is now recapitulating that sad trajectory on
a continental scale.
When the initial onslaught of covid-
threatened to swamp their intensive-care
wards back in spring, many European
countries implemented lockdowns that
greatly constrained all sorts of activity.
Case numbers duly dropped, covid wards
began to empty and in time the restrictions
were eased. In the summer that followed
infections started to inch up without caus-
ing a great deal of alarm. Then, in October,
the epidemic exploded again (see chart 1 on
next page). Today cases are doubling across
the continent every two weeks—a rate of
growth not far short of that seen in March.The sudden upturn shows the night-
marish realities of exponential growth at
work. At low caseloads you can put up with
two-week doublings for a while. But once
an outbreak becomes appreciable, a month
that sees four-fold growth is like a kick in
the teeth—and still leaves you expecting
twice as many cases as you have today in a
fortnight’s time.
Belgium is learning this the hard way.
Its hospitals, which doubled their inten-
sive-care capacity in preparation for a sec-
ond wave, were nevertheless half full by
October 26th; they are expected to run out
of beds by November 6th. Before their re-
cently announced lockdowns France and
Switzerland looked set to follow by mid-
November. Scientists advising the British
government showed it modelling suggest-
ing that, in the absence of something like a
lockdown, the National Health Service
would reach breaking point in December,
when the number of covid patients wouldexceed the “surge capacity” in the field hos-
pitals set up in the spring.
As the scope of the incipient disaster
has dawned on them, ashen-faced leaders
have told their citizens that they have little
choice but to reimpose lockdowns of va-
rious sorts. By November 5th, 20 countries
had shut gyms, restaurants, museums and
other public venues, introduced curfews,
banned people from going out for non-es-
sential business or all of the above. France
has gone furthest, forbidding all social
gatherings and clamping down on sorties
outside the home for anything but food,
medicine or schooling. But even Sweden,
champion of a light-touch approach, called
for new curbs on November 3rd, limiting
the size of groups in restaurants and dis-
couraging meetings between households.
In general, the most striking difference
between these measures and those of the
spring is that most schools and universi-
ties are staying open. The second most
striking is that this time it is winter, not
summer, that is coming, with all that
means for the inhospitality of outdoors ac-
tivity and the stir-craziness of being
cooped up.
In terms of buying time, these lock-
downs are unlikely to be as successful as
the first round, during which restrictions
were stronger and the people locked down
less weary of restrictive precautions. ThisThe relapse
Many countries in Europe are returning to some sort of lockdown. This time they
will have to do better when they emergeBriefing Covid-19 in Europe