Bloomberg Businessweek - USA (2020-11-09)

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◼ ELECTION Bloomberg Businessweek November 9, 2020

CodeofFederalRegulations).They

wonsupportforreformoffederalsen-

tencingguidelines—arare bipartisan

measure.TheygainedSenateconfir-

mationofthreeconservativeSupreme

Courtjusticesandmorethan 200 other

federaljudges. They raisedmilitary

spending,reducedenvironmentalpro-

tections,throttledbackimmigration

andasylum—inparticularfromMuslim

nations—streamlineddrugapproval,and

eliminatedthetaxpenaltyfornothaving

healthinsurance.

Trumpwasn’tabletoachieveevery-

thinghe wanted.Onlya fraction of

thepromisedborderwallisbuilt,and

Mexico isn’tpaying forit.American

troopsarestillinAfghanistan.There’s

beennobiginfrastructurebill,even

thoughbothpartiessaytheywantone.

And he’spromiseda “phenomenal”

replacementfor theAffordableCare

Actsomanytimeswithoutdelivering,

it’sbecomea standingjokeevenamong

fellowRepublicans.

Roughlyspeaking,theTrumpterm

startedstrongand finishedweak.“I

wouldsaythatsomeofthebiggestpos-

itiveeffecthehadwasliterallyrightat

thebeginning,”when“businesspeople

picked up theiranimal spirits,”says

Hubbard, the Columbiaeconomist.He

says Trump wascorrecttopushChina

harder than hispredecessorshaddone

but erred by tryingtodoit alone,pulling

out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership

talksandthenlevyingsteelandalumi-

numtariffsnotonlyonChinabutalsoon

Canada,Mexico,andEurope.Hubbard

givesTrumpespeciallypoormarksfor

hisresponsethisyeartotheeconomic

damagedonebythepandemic.Hesays

theWhiteHouseleftit toCongressto

drafttheCoronavirusAid,Relief,and

EconomicSecurityAct, poorlyexecuted

thePaycheckProtectionProgram,and

quixotically pushedfor a postpone-

mentofpayrolltaxdeductionsthatbig

employerslargelyignored.

“IwouldgiveTrump,intermsofhis

economicperformance,a mixedgrade

froma businessstandpoint,”saysNathan

Sheets,whoservedasundersecretaryfor

internationalaffairsinObama’sTreasury

Departmentandis nowchiefeconomist

ofPGIMFixedIncome.“Probablyinthe

B,B−range.”

Biden,if elected,won’tfindthings

anyeasier.First,there’sthestrugglefor

thesouloftheDemocraticParty.Then

there’sRepublicanopposition.Mitch

McConnellsaidin2010,“Thesinglemost

importantthingwewanttoachieveis for

PresidentObamatobea one-termpresi-

dent,”andhehasn’tgottenmorecooper-

ativesince.Evenif Democratsdomanage

to take the Senate, which appears

unlikely,Republicans willbeableto

blockmuchoftheBidenagendaunless

Democratskillthefilibuster.AndBiden,

a longtimesenatorwithdeeprespectfor

thebody’straditions,seemsunlikelyto

pushfora changeintherules—unless

theRepublicanshepledgestoworkwith

drivehimtoit.

Bidenpromiseshe’dreverseTrump’s

visarestrictions,reinstateprotections

againsthousing discrimination that

Trumpsuspended,toughengunlaws,

andbuildonObamacarebyaddinga

publichealthinsuranceoption.

Butheisn’tthatfarapartfromTrump

onsome otherkeyissues,including

rebuildingtheU.S.manufacturingbase

andrelationswithChina,whichmay

bethemostimportantmatter,foreign

ordomestic,fortheU.S.foryearsto

come.Therearedifferences,tobesure:

Bidenwouldlikelybemorepredictable

thanTrumpwithrespecttoChinaand

workthroughestablishedmultilateral

1789 2020

80%

60

40

20

0

TURNOUTTHROUGH

U.S. HISTORY

Shareofvoting-eligiblepopulationthatvoted

Presidentialelection Midtermelection

DATA: UNITED STATESELECTIONSPROJECT. 2020 ISPRELIMINARY

1900

organizations, such as the World Trade

Organization and the United Nations.

On the other hand, he’d almost certainly

confront China on human-rights issues—

in its Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous

Region, for one—that were of little inter-

est to Trump.

Biden’s first test, even before taking

office, would be his ability to help con-

gressional Democrats cut a deal with the

GOP on coronavirus relief. Bloomberg

Economics calculated on Nov.  4 that,

assuming Biden wins, the package

could be $2 trillion if Democrats control

the Senate—but only $500  billion or

so if Republicans maintain control, as

appears likely. Whatever happens with

the vote count, it feels like we’re in for a

long four years. �Peter Coy

A COMEBACK

FOR GOP

WOMEN

▶ The Republican Party will look a

little less male in the next Congress

At least 30 Republican womenwill

make their way to Congress come

January,potentially surpassing a record

set in 2006. As of Nov. 4 there were 12

Republican women in races that hadn’t

yet been called. The mini-swell will add

a sliver of gender diversity to a party

overwhelmingly run by White men. (By

contrast, the 117th Congress will have

at least 96 Democratic women.) “There

is no doubt about it. Last night was

truly the night of Republican women,”

tweeted New York Representative Elise

Stefanik, who runs a PAC to get more

Republican women elected.

Going into the election, it was all but

certain the GOP’s female delegate count

would grow. That feat alone wouldn’t

have been too impressive—the party

lost female representation in 2018,leav-

ing 13 women in the House and7 inthe

Senate. Still, its candidates didbetter