41where citizens let their guard down and open their
mouths, such as bars, restaurants, and nightclubs.
Switzerland, where one superspreading event was
linked to a yodeling session, has banned perfor-
mances by amateur choirs.
Even with closures of limited scope, for the final
quarter of 2020, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. fore-
casts a contraction of euro area gross domestic
product of 2.3%, following a 12.7% rebound in the
previous three months. Europe may already be on
its way to a double-dip recession.
For people working in the hospitality or tour-
ism industries, a disastrous year has just become
worse. Enterprises that may have survived the first
wave by downsizing, using government payroll sub-
sidies and running down cash reserves, are facing
what may be the terminal blow, even if they can
access government support.
“We can’t stay above water with what we’re get-
ting,” says Husseyin Guleryuz, who owns a cafe
called Estate Coffee in Berlin’s trendy Kreuzberg
district. “I still want to thank the government for
all the help it’s trying to provide to help us stand on
our feet, but our existence is threatened if this con-
tinues.” He says that while he employed six people
before the pandemic, he can now afford only one.
A lack of tourists and work-lunch customers has left
him strapped for cash for months, and the closures
that started on Nov. 2 could be the final straw.
The difference with lockdown 2.0 is that factories
and non-hospitality businesses are largely allowed
to continue to operate. The calculation is that even
though the restrictions will hurt, the damage won’t
beofthesameorderofmagnitude.France’sfinance
minister,BrunoLeMaire,estimatesthecurbswill
causeoutputtosink15%belownormallevels,com-
paredwitha 30%hitinthespring.
Forthoseestablishmentsnotundernewrestric-
tions,thesenseofemergencyduringthislockdown
maybelesspronounced.VDMA,a bodythatrep-
resentstheGermanmachineryindustry,saysthat
whileNovemberwillbe“threatening,”thesector
cangoonmuchasbefore.AnOctobersurveyof
purchasingmanagersshowsthemanufacturingsec-
torfirmlyexpanding.
ClaasKGaAmbH, a maker of tractors and
combine harvesters based in western Germany,
says it’s used lessons from supply chain inter-
ruptions in the spring to make sure production
won’t be interrupted now. “Despite new restric-
tions, we have good orders for our products now,
and all we need to do is to make sure that we can
work to meet that demand,” spokesman Wolfram
Eberhardt says.
Even with such optimism, “lockdown light” is still
a risky strategy for governments. Restaurants, bars,
and catering companies are big employers, and clo-
sures have knock-on effects on suppliers and others.
Politicians are signing off on financial aid
packages to compensate owners of affected busi-
nesses for losses and to keep workers on payrolls.
Germany is offering to cover as much as 75% of
the revenue an establishment got in the same
month last year as part of a €10 billion ($11.6 bil-
lion) package announced at the end of October.
Even relatively cash-strapped Italy is readying▲ Restaurateurs in Paris
will be able to offer
only takeaway during
November▼Quarterlychange in
grossdomestic product
France
Germany15%0-1 5
Q3’19 Q4 ’20
FORECAST