The Economist - USA (2020-11-21)

42 Middle East & Africa The EconomistNovember 21st 2020

2 pia’s ten ethnically based regional states.

Thousands of Amhara militiamen, mostly

farmers with rusty Kalashnikovs, have

marched towards Tigray. They are fighting

alongside the federal army to push Tigray-

an forces out of disputed towns near the

state border. The involvement of these re-

gional militias in a country as divided as

Ethiopia is a recipe for ethnic bloodletting.

Possibly hundreds of civilians, many of

them Amharas, were hacked to death with

machetes and knives in Mai Kadra, accord-

ing to Amnesty International. Some wit-

nesses said that forces loyal to the tplf

were responsible for the killings, though

Amnesty was unable to confirm this. Ti-

grayan refugees fleeing into Sudan told

Reuters that they had been attacked by peo-

ple from Amhara. As many as 36,000 peo-

ple have sought refuge in Sudan.

Fears of an ethnic conflagration have

been heightened by the harassment of Ti-

grayans in the national capital, Addis Aba-

ba, and elsewhere. Many Tigrayans in the

security services or civil service have been

told not to come in to work. Possibly hun-

dreds have been detained. Some 200-300

Tigrayan soldiers serving in Ethiopia’s

peacekeeping force in Somalia have been

disarmed. People boarding international

flights leaving Addis Ababa are being asked

to show local ids, which typically reveal

ethnicity. Tigrayans are turned back and

told they may not leave.

Both sides to the conflict may have

hoped it would be over quickly. After the

tplf ordered its troops to fire the first

shots, it described the war as an act of “an-

ticipatory self-defence”. Abiy’s govern-

ment insists it is involved in a policing op-

eration aimed at “enforcing the rule of law”.

Although Ethiopian forces say they are

marching on Mekelle, few think they will

easily subdue Tigray, whose fighters may

wage a guerrilla war from the hills.

Bad blood and a lack of trust between

the two sides will hamper efforts to end the

fighting through talks. The tplf, which

called the shots in the federal government

for almost 30 years, has yet to come to

terms with its dethroning in 2018 after

massive protests brought Abiy to power.

After his appointment, Abiy sidelined the

tplfand began removing Tigrayans from

state institutions, in particular the army

and intelligence agency.

Tensions worsened when the central

government postponed elections earlier

this year, citing covid-19. The tplfaccused

Abiy of flouting the constitution in order to

stay in power and went ahead with its own

regional election in September. The federal

government deemed it illegal and slashed

federal funding to the region. The tplf

called this a “declaration of war”.

Two weeks into the actual war, the tplf

seems a little less keen on fighting it. De-

bretsion has called on the African Union

andtheuntocondemntheEthiopianof-

fensiveandsayshewantstalks. Buthealso

insistsonAbiy’shead,saying:“Wewillnot

negotiatewiththiscriminaltyrant.”Abiyis

nolessintransigentandsayshewillnot

talkuntilthetplfhasbeendefeatedand

disarmed.Andsothefightingcontinues. 7

SOMALIA

SOUTH

SUDAN ETHIOPIA

UGANDA KENYA

SUDAN

DJIBOUTI

ERITREA

RedSea

Gulf

ofAden

Addis

Ababa

Asmara

Amhara Afar

Tigray

Mekelle

Alamata

MaiKadra

300 km

“L

ivestock theft has been around

since Biblical times,” says Herkie Vil-

joen, a farmer on the outskirts of Bethle-

hem, a suitably named town in the Free

State. But in recent years it has reached un-

godly proportions. Standing next to a huge

map of the province he points to small red

circles with black dots that represent sto-

len animals. In some places it looks as if the

farms are covered in poppy fields.

In South Africa 218,000 farm animals—

cows, sheep or goats—were taken in the 12

months to March, up from 180,000 five

years earlier. The total loss was worth about

900m rand ($60m) in each of the past two

years, around twice as much as the annual

black market value of poached rhino horn.

Losses this year will probably be even high-

er, as the economic effects of the pandemic

make it harder to earn a lawful living.

A few decades ago pilferage was “for the

pot”. Today 87% of cases involve criminal

syndicates, says Willie Clack of the Univer-

sity of South Africa. Gangs act differently in

different places. In parts of the Free State

and neighbouring KwaZulu Natal thieves

often load cows onto lorries, then cross

into Lesotho. Inside the mountain king-

dom, which is encircled by South Africa,

syndicates rebrand cattle before taking

them back across the border, for sale at auc-

tion or to abattoirs. It is like laundering

cars, but with cows instead of Porsches.

Livestock theft can be seen through a ra-

cial lens. The victims of the largest heists in

the Free State are white Afrikaners who run

big farms. Perhaps one-fifth of farm mur-

ders in the province—allegedly including

the high-profile killing of Brendin Horner,

a 21-year-old farm manager‚ on October

1st—are related to syndicates. Yet the vic-

tims in most cases of theft are black small-

holders. As they own fewer animals, single

incidents can ruin entire livelihoods.

Whites and blacks are both victims of a

sclerotic criminal-justice system. There

are dedicated Stock Theft Units within the

police but they are siloed and poorly fund-

ed. A lack of arrests and prosecutions

means there is “no deterrence”, argues Roy

Jankielsohn, the leader of the opposition

Democratic Alliance in the Free State. After

the murder of Mr Horner, Bheki Cele, the

national police minister, pledged that he

would investigate livestock syndicates.

“I’ve seen the stock-theft figures—it’s hell,”

he said, adding that if police were found

taking bribes they would have to swap their

blue uniforms for orange jumpsuits.

In the meantime farmers are protecting

themselves. For as is often the case in

South Africa, people who can afford to do

so are finding private solutions to public-

sector problems. Mr Viljoen’s “command

centre”, which is funded by 450 local farm-

ers, uses 65,000 cctvcameras to look for

rustlers. Farmers are also deploying drones

and gps-tagging to find purloined stock.

Yet such measures can only go so far.

After visiting the command centre your

correspondent heads to the Caledon river,

which marks the border with Lesotho,

passing two empty chairs where soldiers

are meant to keep watch. Donkeys and

cows quench their thirst while children

joyfully splash back and forth from one

country to another. “You see!” a young boy

cries out. “There’s no border!” 7

BETHLEHEM

Stealing animals is becoming more

common—and more sophisticated

Cattle rustling in South Africa

Where’s the beef?

Cows without borders