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A clash, a crunch and a crisis

Daniel Franklin: diplomatic editor, The Economist

The return of nuclear brinkmanship

IN 2021 THE world will have an important new international treaty. The Treaty on the
Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) commits parties not to develop or host such
weapons. Launched in 2017 and so far signed by 84 countries, it will become law 90
days after 50 of those signatory states have ratified it. On October 24th 2020 Honduras
became the 50th ratifier, triggering the countdown to the treaty’s entry into force on
January 22nd.

But far from marking a new era of optimism for controlling nukes, this will be a sign of
mounting alarm that restraints are being dangerously weakened. The world’s nuclear
powers have no intention of signing the new treaty. A year of nuclear nervousness is in
prospect, including a clash, a crunch and, all too possibly, a crisis.

The clash will come at the five-yearly review conference, or RevCon, of the Nuclear Non-
Proliferation Treaty (NPT). That was meant to happen in New York in 2020, marking
the treaty’s 50th anniversary, but it was pushed to 2021 because of covid-19. A new