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Balkan shrinkage

Tim Judah: Balkans correspondent, The Economist

Emigration and low birth rates are taking their toll

MOST EUROPEAN countries will carry out a census in 2021, and for many of them the
results will be easy to predict. It is a different matter in the Balkans.

Ever since the fall of communism and the end of the bloody Yugoslav wars that followed,
people in the Balkan region have been having fewer children and many people have
been emigrating. This exodus has been aided by labour-hungry parts of Europe like
Germany making it easier for citizens of non-EU countries to get work permits. The fact
that no one knows how many have gone and how many remain is causing problems for
the Balkan countries’ planners.

North Macedonia has not had a census since 2002. Since then its statistical office has
dutifully been making projections based on the country that it used to be. The
statisticians estimate that there are 2.08m people in North Macedonia—but the real
figure could be as low as 1.5m. In some countries, such as Bulgaria, the figures are more
up to date, but whether the numbers are reliable or not, the trends are the same. The