backing the ussr 2.0Backing Putin
While indicating they were generally less likely to participate in
elections, ethnic non- Russians said they were about as likely to
vote for Putin as president as were ethnic Russians (Figure 6.2).
Among ethnic non- Russians who said they voted in the 2012
presidential election, some 71 per cent said they voted for Putin
- slightly more than among the ethnic Russians, with 67 per
cent. Stated willingness to vote for Putin if elections were held
at the time of the survey in May 2013 declined, but at about the
same rate between the sub- samples. Some 47 per cent of ethnic
non- Russians and 50 per cent of ethnic Russians from among
those who said they would vote in 2013 opted for Putin. These
percentage- point differences in 2012 and 2013 voting preference
between sub- samples were not statistically significant. The decline
in the number of respondents willing to vote for Putin from 2012
to 2013 was statistically significant among ethnic Russians and
non- Russians alike – indicating no systematic difference in voting
preferences.
We should note that ethnic non- Russians were more likely to
abstain from voting in 2012. In the NEORUSS surveys, more than
43 per cent of ethnic non- Russians said they did not vote in 2012,
compared to some 30 per cent of ethnic Russians. The difference
is statistically significant and may indicate latent tensions between
Putin’s government and Russia’s ethnic minorities – assuming
that not voting is an expression of alienation or grievances.^16
However, this issue hardly poses a political threat to the
Kremlin. First, the scale of estimated non- participation was low.
It was certainly nowhere near the scale of the Crimean Tatars’
boycott of the ‘referendum’ on Crimean independence that was
set barely two weeks following the Russia- led military takeover
of the peninsula in March 2014 – a boycott, which despite ten-
sions, failed to stop the Russian annexation. Second, the finding
actually indicates that even if they develop grievances against the
regime, Russia’s ethnic minorities are more likely to express them
by withdrawing from politics, not by marching on the Kremlin.
Third, the difference on the intent to vote in 2013 between
non- Russians and ethnic Russians was not statistically significant