The Economist - USA (2021-01-30)

TheEconomistJanuary 30th 2021 35

1

M

ost palestiniansare probably too

young to remember when their presi-

dent, Mahmoud Abbas, took power in

2005. He was elected to a four-year term,
      the first of two permitted by law. He never
      got round to holding another vote, yet he
      remains in charge, having served four
      times his mandate. Amazingly, he could
      soon win another term.
      On January 15th Mr Abbas announced
      the first elections in the occupied territo-
      ries in more than 15 years. Many Palestin-
      ians were understandably sceptical. Call-
      ing for new elections is something of an
      annual tradition for Mr Abbas, who turned
      85 in November. They never happen. In-
      creasingly autocratic, Mr Abbas is loth to
      risk his grip on power.
      Perhaps he is more serious this time.
      Against the grain of years past, he has fixed
      dates for the elections, with a parliamenta-
      ry ballot in May and a presidential one in
      July. But even if they happen they are un-

likely to bring sweeping change: Mr Abbas

could be the only viable candidate for pres-

ident. His announcement does not reflect a

desire for fresh faces or a new direction.

Instead, it is a gesture to the new presi-

dent in Washington. The Palestinians had a

hard time with Donald Trump, to say the

least; relations with America have not been

this bad since the 1980s. Mr Abbas is eager

to start anew with Joe Biden. Yet he is likely

to be disappointed with the new adminis-

tration, which has neither the time nor the

inclination to wander down the cul-de-sac

of Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy. In his ef-

fort to court the Americans, Mr Abbas may

simply illustrate how bereft of ideas he is.

Three out of four Palestinians support

his call for elections. But they are not terri-

bly enthusiastic about their choices. A sur-

vey conducted in December by Palestine’s

leading pollster found that 66% of the pub-

lic want Mr Abbas to resign. He would prob-

ably lose a race against Ismail Haniyeh, the

leader of Hamas, the militant Islamist

group that controls Gaza. It may not field a

candidate, though. The group’s experiment

with governance has been a disaster. Under

blockade by Israel and Egypt, Gaza is an

open-air prison where 2m people live in

miserable conditions. Better to have Mr Ab-

bas as a foil than to be responsible for the

West Bank as well.

There are few other credible challengers

for the throne. Despite his advanced age,

Mr Abbas has not designated a successor,

and occasionally cuts down rivals within

his nationalist Fatah party. The only name

that excites voters is Marwan Barghouti, a

prominent member of Fatah who would

probably romp home to victory. But he

would have to run from inside a jail cell. Mr

Barghouti was convicted of murder by an

Israeli court for organising attacks during

the second intifada, or Palestinian upris-

ing, and is serving multiple life sentences.

As for parliament, it has been defunct

for more than a decade, owing to a dispute

between Hamas and Fatah. Asked who they

The Palestinians

To the polls

DUBAI AND JERUSALEM

Will a call for elections shake things up in the Holy Land?

Middle East & Africa

36 Stiflingcriticswithsextapes

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