The EconomistFebruary 13th 2021 Middle East & Africa 472
1CriticsoftheDabaibafamilybelieveit
willuseitsinfluencetohogcontractsand
increaseitswealth.“He’lltrytogetasmuch
ashecan,”saysaunofficial,referringto
AbdulHamid.Others,though,likenhimto
Rafiqal-Hariri,thebusinessmanwholed
and rebuilt Lebanonafter its long civil
war—andwhoalsowasdoggedbycorrup-
tionallegations.
GeneralHaftarandmilitialeadersinthe
westencouragedtheirrepresentativeson
theforumtochoosethewinninglistbe-
causetheyreckoneditwouldmakefora
weak administration. It will certainly
struggletopersuadethewarlordstogiveup
theirarms.Itmayalsohavetroublewin-
ning overLibyans inthe east,many of
whomdistrustthenewprimeministerbe-
causehecomesfromthewesterncityof
Misrata. Abdullah al-Thani, head of the
easterngovernment,saysheiswaitingfor
instructions from the old parliament,
whichsitsintheeasterncityofTobruk.
The foreignpowerspaylip-serviceto
thepoliticalprocess,buttheyignoredthe
un’s deadlineofJanuary23rdtowithdraw.
TurkeywantstomaintaininfluenceinLib-
ya.In 2019 it signeda dealwiththegnathat
supposedlygivesTurkeytherighttodrill
foroilandgasinwatersoffGreekislands.It
viewsMrDabaiba,whohasbusinessinter-
estsinTurkey,asanally.
Russia,meanwhile,wantstopreserve
its accessto airbases and ports facing
nato’s underbelly.It dispatchedmoremer-
cenariestoLibyashortlyafterthenewgov-
ernmentwasvotedin.Anditcontinuesto
helpGeneralHaftardighis“Maginotline”,
a fortifiedtrenchrunningfromSirteinto
thedesert.Thatwillnotmakethenewgov-
ernment’sjobanyeasier. 7T
he narrowwaters separating the Ara-
bian peninsula from the Horn of Africa
have never served as much of a moat.
Goods and people routinely cross. Iran and
the United Arab Emirates (uae), in particu-
lar, are increasingly active in the Horn.
Tensions between them rose after the uae
established diplomatic ties with Israel last
year, a move that Iran furiously con-
demned. A string of recent arrests shows
how the rivalry between the two is adding
volatility to an already unstable region.
In recent weeks Ethiopia arrested 15
people for allegedly plotting to attack the
uae’s embassies in Ethiopia and Sudan.The authorities said that those arrested
were working for a “foreign terrorist
group”, but did not say which. Around the
same time Sweden said it was holding two
men, a Swede and an Eritrean, on suspicion
of planning a terrorist offence in an un-
named foreign country. Western intelli-
gence sources say the arrests were linked
and Iran was behind the planned attacks.
That would be nothing new for Iran. It
has a history of plotting attacks in Africa,
often unsuccessfully. Western spies be-
lieve it may be looking for soft targets so
that it can retaliate against its rivals, name-
ly America, Israel and the Gulf states.
Iran is destabilising the Horn in other
ways, too. Since 2013 un experts have
voiced concerns to the Security Council
about a flow of weapons from Yemen and
Iran into Somalia. In recent years as many
as four shipments every month have been
arriving. Western and local forces have in-
tercepted several boats heading for Soma-
lia and Yemen, loaded with weapons made
in Iran or North Korea. Some of these arms
may go to al-Shabab, a Somali jihadist
group. Others may be destined for Houthi
rebels in Yemen. Last June, for instance,
Saudi Arabia seized a dhow carrying anti-
tank missiles and thousands of assault ri-
fles made in Iran on their way to Yemen via
smuggling networks in Somalia.
In January al-Shabab released a video
commemorating its attack last year on an
American air base in Manda Bay on Kenya’s
coast. Its fighters can be seen carrying Ira-
nian-made rocket launchers. But they are
also carrying rifles stolen from the Somali
army—originally supplied by the uae.
From 2014 to 2018 the uaetrained part of
Somalia’s army. But the countries fell out
after Somalia resisted Emirati pressure to
cut ties with Qatar following a dispute be-
tween the Gulf states. Somalia, for its part,
was angry with the uaefor making deals
with Somaliland, a breakaway region.
Nowadays the uaeis more active in Eri-
trea and perhaps Ethiopia. It has provided
weapons to Eritrea’s army in defiance of aunarms embargo. And it has used an air
and naval base in the port city of Assab to
launch air strikes in Yemen. That base,
claim Ethiopian rebels, has also been used
to launch drone attacks against them. Eri-
trea is fighting alongside Ethiopia’s gov-
ernment against the Tigrayan People’s Lib-
eration Front (tplf), the ousted rulers of
Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region.
Iran and the uaeare not the only Middle
Eastern powers operating in the Horn. Is-
raeli journalists have long reported the ex-
istence of secret Israeli intelligence facili-
ties in Eritrea, which occupies a strategic
position, overlooking the Bab al-Mandab
strait at the mouth of the Red Sea.
Is any of this good for the Horn? Soma-
lia’s fragile attempts at state-building were
set back earlier this month, when presi-
dential elections were indefinitely de-
layed. Ethiopia, meanwhile, is at risk of
splintering into warring ethnic groups.
The region needs outsiders to douse these
flames. Instead, many are fanning them. 7Gulf rivalries are spilling into
north-eastern AfricaThe Horn of AfricaAdding to the
chaos
SAUDIARABIAERITREAKENYAQATARBAHRAINOMANYEMENUAESUDANETHIOPIA SOMALIAThe IRAN
GulfArabian
SeaINDIAN
OCEANBabal-MandabRed
SeaTigrayHouthisRiyadhAddis
AbabaMogadishuAl-Shabab attack areaDJIBOUTISmuggli
ng
route500 kmSocotra
Somaliland (Yemen)AssabJeddahPort SudanI
n the lawless eastern parts of the
Democratic Republic of Congo, nomads
and sedentary folk often clash. Cattle-rear-
ing groups rub up against crop-growers
over access to land. In the absence of a
strong state, disputes can quickly turn viol-
ent. By contrast another type of nomadism
obsesses the population in Gombe, the
wealthy core of Congo’s capital, Kinshasa:
that of elected officials.
Few politicians are loyal to ideas or peo-
ple. Instead they head for the best grazing.
“The Congolese politician is the most un-
stable human ever to exist,” says Félix Mo-
mat Kitenge, until recently a government
minister. “He will change with the breeze.”
Others call it, in French, transhumance pol-
itique(political nomadism).
On January 27th several hundred mem-
bers of Congo’s parliament put on their
metaphorical walking boots and took a
hike. They left the majority political group-
ing, the Front Commun pour le Congo
(fcc), which is affiliated with Joseph Ka-
bila, Congo’s president until 2019. Most
joined two of the largest opposition parties
in supporting a new majority called the
“Sacred Union” set up by Félix Tshisekedi,
who has been president for the past two
years. The prime minister, Sylvestre Ilunga
Ilukamba, an ally of Mr Kabila’s, resigned.
So did his ministers, including Mr Momat.KINSHASA
Félix Tshisekedi cuts free of his
would-be puppetmasterCongolese politicsThe president
pounces