The Economist - UK (2019-06-29)

46 The Americas The EconomistJune 29th 2019

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1

by Edelman Canada, a consultancy,

showed that just 24% of the “informed

public”, a group that comprises about a

sixth of the population, and 16% of the

“mass population” thought the system was

working for them. Almost three-quarters

of both groups think they are being treated

unfairly and a majority want change.

The Conservatives have done a better

job than the Liberals of showing that they

care about these anxieties. Last month Mr

Scheer, a bland but affable former Speaker

of the House of Commons, laid out an eco-

nomic plan that was light on ideas but

heavy on empathy. “The economic indica-

tors might say one thing. But the human in-

dicators say something entirely different,”

he said. He would be the prime minister for

“the people who just need a break”. That

will come from modest tax cuts. He also

promised to make unspecified spending

reductions to narrow the budget deficit (ex-

pected to be 0.9% of gdpthis year).

On health care and the environment,

the Liberals seem to have the electoral

edge. They swiped from the New Demo-

cratic Party, a more leftish outfit, the no-

tion that government should subsidise

prescription drugs. A proposal for “phar-

macare”, made by a government-appointed

commission this month, comes too late for

Parliament to legislate before the election.

But it is well in time for the Liberals to dan-

gle the idea in front of voters. They have not

yet made clear which drugs would be cov-

ered, how much the benefit would cost or

who would pay for it.

In a battle between greens and suppor-

ters of the oil industry, which generates a

fifth of Canada’s exports, Mr Trudeau has

tried to strike a balance. On June 18th the

government approved an additional pipe-

line to run alongside the 1,150km (715-mile)

Trans Mountain pipeline from Alberta to

the west coast. The government bought the

project last year for C$4.5bn after its owner

tired of delays caused by opposition from

environmental and indigenous groups. At

the same time, it is trying to meet its com-

mitments under the Paris climate agree-

ment, in part by requiring provinces to set a

price on carbon emissions.

Partisans on both sides have lambasted

Mr Trudeau. After the government ap-

proved the pipeline expansion Elizabeth

May, leader of the Green Party, which could

win votes from the Liberals, called it a “cyn-

ical bait-and-switch”. Albertans focus on

the pipelines Mr Trudeau has blocked (one

going east, the other west) rather than the

one he approved. A few days after the Trans

Mountain decision, Parliament passed a

law changing the rules for assessing the en-

vironmental impact of such projects. Jason

Kenney, the recently elected Conservative

premier of Alberta, called the decision a

“flagrant violation” of provincial rights and

vowed to challenge it in court.

Both Mr Kenney and Doug Ford, Ontar-

io’s Progressive Conservative premier

since June 2018, killed their provincial car-

bon-pricing schemes (in Ontario’s case, a

cap-and-trade system). They are fighting in

court the national tax, which is imposed on

provinces that do not have plans that pass

muster with the federal government.

Conservative provincial governments

will also attack the Liberals’ pharmacare

plan. They object in principle to expanding

the role of government, especially in areas

such as health care, in which provinces

share responsibility with the federal gov-

ernment. Mr Ford made Ontario’s pharma-

care plan less generous as part of an auster-

ity programme, which he says is needed to

cut the province’s debt and deficit.

The chaotic administration of Mr Ford,

the brother of Toronto’s late crack-smoking

mayor, Rob Ford, may be Mr Trudeau’s best

hope of winning. Ontarians are enraged by

Mr Ford’s spending cuts, which include

sacking 400 health-care workers. He even

cancelled Canada Day (July 1st) celebra-

tions at Queen’s Park in Toronto, site of On-

tario’s legislature. His unpopularity is dim-

ming Conservatives’ prospects in the

province, which elects 121 of the 338 mps in

the House of Commons. It will be the chief

battleground in the election.

Early polls predict little. At this point in

2015 the New Democrats were ahead (they

came third). Mr Trudeau is planning anoth-

er come-from-behind victory. He is betting

that most Canadians will understand the

need for compromise on the environment

and will give him credit for a strong jobs

market, generous public benefits and

avoiding a trade bust-up with the United

States. He will be scanning the Canadian

sky for rainbows. 7

Rainbow collision

Source:Nationalpolls *ToJune21st

Canada, general-election polling, %

Selectedparties

0

10

20

30

40

50

2015 16 17 18 19*

Justin Trudeau takes office

Green

Liberal

Conservative

New Democratic

V

illavicencio, a shabbycity of half a

million people, considers itself the

gateway to los llanos, Colombia’s eastern

plains. Now and for the next few months

few people will be passing through it. Mud-

slides since May have blocked the main

highway, the Vía al Llano, which connects

the city to Bogotá, Colombia’s capital,

86km (53 miles) away (see map). More rocks

and mud threaten workers trying to un-

block the road, along which two-thirds of

domestically produced goods are trans-

ported. Colombia’s government says this

could take up to three months.

This has cut off from the rest of the

country a region of 1.7m people which pro-

duces much of Colombia’s oil and food.

Residents of Villavicencio and the sur-

rounding plains are beginning to feel the

consequences. Potatoes, garlic and eggs

have become scarce in grocery stores.

Shoppers hunt through produce bins to

find the few tomatoes and carrots that have

not rotted. More than 90% of hotel reserva-

tions in the plains region, newly popular

with tourists, have been cancelled. Bistro-

nomy, Villavicencio’s fanciest restaurant,

ran out of Club Colombia, its most popular

beer, on a recent evening. The politicians

and landowners who dine there had to set-

tle for Andina, a new brew.

Goods can get through on two smaller

toll roads, but these are not fully paved.

Some farmers have sold their products at a

loss to pay the cost of shipping to Bogotá,

which has jumped by 40%. Rice growers

VILLAVICENCIO

A blocked road cuts the plains off from the rest of the country

Colombia

Lost llanos

Villavicencio

Major

roads

Bogotá

COLOMBIA

Los llanos

Vía al Llano

Andes

200 km

Source: Invías

Roads closed

by landslides