Encyclopedia of Environmental Science and Engineering, Volume I and II

ENERGY SOURCES—ALTERNATIVES 321

A favourable combination for the energy economies of

industrial countries would be:

1) A far-going electrification of railroad.

2) An increased portion of transport and traffic on

electrified railroad.

3) Electrification of road traffic by electric-driven

cars (battery cars).

As an electric-driven car with battery at present can drive

about 200 miles, it can be suggested that for long-distance

traffic the railroad should be used and for city traffic the

electric car. For trips which by all means cannot be made

by electrified railroad nor by electric cars, the conventional

motor car should be available (as far as possible by rented

cars). This combination would extend the world stock of

crude oil, but for the transport sector it would mean a great

change. Also the vehicle industry should help to carry this

energy alternative. To bring “The Problem of Transport” into

a favorable relationship to the above-mentioned 3-cornered

problem energy/economy/ecology, it is unavoidable that, to a

great extent, overland air traffic must be replaced by electri-

cally-driven high speed trains travelling at 250 to 300 miles

per hour. Environmental problems will make this development

unavoidable.

Energy Strategies^33

State and regional energy authorities in many countries bear

the responsibility to bring about fundamental alterations of

the energy economy, the ultimate object of which is to assure

an adequate supply of clean, low cost, safe, and depend-

able energy. In general it can be assumed that population

and national economies will continue to expand but that the

extent and nature of this growth is as difficult to forecast

as it is to accurately determine energy demands over a long

period.

There are, as explained before, numerous alternative tech-

nical, and ecological economic solutions to these problems,

comprising different priorities in the research and develop-

ment of new energy systems, the choice of various primary

energy sources, and the application of particular energy con-

servation and transport technologies. Further, non-technical

elements of planning and shaping the energy economy lie in

the enactment of tax, subsidy policy, and pricing.

The three main aspects of energy planning are as follows:

1) The problems presented by energy economies

should not be considered in isolation. Rather,

because of their central importance to the whole

of a country’s economy, these problems must

be treated as sub-systems, interacting with

other components in the economic nexus, such

as technological concepts and environmental

factors.

2) The energy system is mapped in a model.

Depending upon the particular questions the model

is to answer, three broad methods may be corre-

spondingly applied: optimization models (linear

programming, dynamic programming); simulation

models; input/output analysis.

3) The model is mathematically designed for com-

puter analysis. Interdisciplinary working groups,

representing several scientific fields, are required

to develop the model because of the complexity of

the systems to be mapped and the many different

areas to which the model’s elements and subsys-

tems belong.

This modelling method serves to furnish the basis for ratio-

nal choices about energy supply as an integral part of a

national (or regional) economy. After thorough investiga-

tion of the interrelation between the energy economy, the

national economy and the environment, the knowledge of all

technical and economic facts and influences as well as alter-

native possibilities will be given into formulated computer

programs and become the foundation for long-term energy

planning. The programs can simulate alternative strategies,

check the effects of measures adopted, and make quantitative

statements and forecasts about the energy economy. Figure 8

shows a simplified flow-chart of an energy model used for

national energy studies.

In Figure 9 are shown the different steps from the inven-

tory of energy resources with own sources, trade, and sources

provided by trans-border energy transfer.

RESULTS

DATA

BASE

ENERGY

DATA

BASE

SIMULATION

MODEL

OPTIMIZATION

MODEL

DATA BASE

MANAGEMENT

INPUT–OUTPUT

MODEL

TECHNOLOGICAL

AND COST DATA

MARCO-ECONOMIC

MODEL

DEMANDANALYSIS

TECHNOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC

ANALYSIS

ENERGY FLOW

FIGURE 8 General flow-chart of the energy model.

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