Human Development Report - Croatia 2008 Agriculture^129The 2007 drought also caused economic damages
reaching beyond the agriculture sector. Shortages of
both grain and corn resulted in increased food prices.
Retail prices of milk, bread, eggs, and meat all rose fol-
lowing the Government’s announcement that there
was just enough wheat to meet domestic demand
and there was a corn deficit of up to 300,000 metric
tonnes.^70 To try to stabilise the local market, the Gov-
ernment imposed a tariff of EUR 108 per tonne on
corn exports.^71
8.3.4. Potential impacts of future climate
change on agriculture in Croatia
While current damages due to climate variability are
estimated at 0.6% of GDP, or 9.3% of the GVA gener-
ated by the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector,
the scale of damages could get worse in the future.
Climate models predict a further decrease in precipita-
tion, and the Government expects that climate change
will cause crops in Croatia to suffer from water short-
ages, notably in the fertile region of Slavonia.^72 Most
climate change models predict an increase of drier
summers and extreme heat waves and droughts. For
this reason, an increase in the frequency of extreme
weather events may be the most serious potential im-
pact on agriculture from climate change. However, in
addition to the frequency of extreme weather events,
there may also be an impact from the change in the
average temperatures, the average precipitation rates,
and overall changes in climate.
The potential impact of changes in the averages of
climate variables (long-term climate change) on the
Croatian agricultural sector is largely unknown. The
forecast for climate change in Croatia is not optimistic,
and negative climate trends are predicted to worsen.^73
As discussed in Chapter 3, the various climate change
scenarios for Croatia envisage significant temperature
increases, regardless of the season, as well as decreas-
es in precipitation.
The First, and then the Second, Third and Fourth (com-
bined) National Communications of the Republic of
Croatia to the UNFCCC detailed significant expected
climate change impacts on agriculture (See Box 8-1)- some beneficial, others not. However, much more
information and analysis will be necessary in order to
actually transform these generalized statements into
predictions about specific crops, the economic im-
pacts of climate change, and to identify actions that
will lead to adaptation.
Except for a series of closely-related studies,^74 the im-
pacts of climate change on crop yields have not been
quantified in Croatia. This work focused on the effects
of climate change on maize development and yield in
the central part of Croatia. The results of these stud-
ies correspond quite closely with those obtained for
western Hungary.^75 This sort of research is necessary
to better understand the relationship between cli-
mate and agriculture (See Box 8-2 for more informa-
tion). The results showed:
A shorter growing season (30-36 days in 2050 and 34-
44 days in 2100);
A reduction in grain production (3-8% in 2050 and
8-15% in 2100); and
No significant difference in the yield of biomass (range
between -2% and +2%).
Climate models
predict a further
decrease in
precipitation, and
the Government
expects that
climate change
will cause crops
in Croatia to
suffer from
water shortages,
notably in the
fertile region of
Slavonia