the transition the military have been able to negotiate immunity from prose-
cution for human rights violations (Fitch, 1998, p. 162). It is not easy to
find new missions for the military which do not undermine their profession-
alism and exclusion from politics, such as UN peacekeeping rather than
combating crime.
Political developments confronting the new civilian government will also
be significant. Of particular importance are factors which distract govern-
ments from the reform of civil–military relations, such as hyper-inflation
and other economic crises which undermine public confidence in the civil-
ian authorities. Excluding the military from civilian governmental roles
may be made difficult by confrontations with revolutionary movements
and/or organized crime (as in Colombia) that make it difficult to avoid using
the military in policing activities.
There has nevertheless been some success in newly democratizing coun-
tries in reforming civil–military relations. Norms of military professional-
ism and civilian control have become more widely diffused and accepted.
Military leaders have learned that attempts to govern have been destructive
for the armed forces. Civilian politicians recognize that their interests lie in
a professionalized, a-political military. Popular support for an end to exces-
sive military budgets, abuses of human rights, and military involvement in
economic enterprises has grown. Coupattempts might occur, but are less
likely to be successful in newly democratized countries with a reasonable
level of economic development. Huntington was even prepared to specify
the cut-off points: ‘Countries with per capita GNPs of $1,000 or more do
not have successful coups; countries with per capita GNPs of $3,000 or
more do not have coupattempts’ (1995, p. 15).
Conclusion
Many of the factors associated with military intervention, particularly social
and economic variables, have also figured in attempts to understand the
context of political instability within which military coupsmay occur.
Military intervention is by no means the only form of political instability.
Communal violence, separatist movements and ethnic conflicts can escalate
into civil war and create prolonged instability. This more general and wide-
spread picture of instability is the subject of a later chapter. The present
chapter has identified the circumstances surrounding military interventions
in Third World politics in order to explore how successful explanations of
the phenomenon have been. An understanding of military intervention is
192 Understanding Third World Politics