Understanding Third World Politics

strikes, peasant uprisings and urban riots was rounded off by a coup d’étatby
army officers. He points out that expectations of improvements began in
1922 with a grant of limited independence by the British, and continued with
industrialization and an increase in exports following the Second World War.
Expectations of continued progress were dashed between 1945 and 1951 by
a collapse in the world demand for cotton, unemployment among a third of
the work force, high inflation, humiliating defeat by the new state of Israel,
government corruption and shortages of wheat and oil. The promises made
by nationalist groups contribute to such problems when the anticipated ben-
efits of independence failed to materialize.
The current threat to political stability in Argentina fits this model. Relative
affluence seemed to be secured when hyper-inflation was brought to an end,
exchange controls abolished, state monopolies privatized, and the peso
pegged to the US dollar. However, this was suddenly threatened by a sharp
increase in the value of the dollar, making Argentinian exports dearer, with
deflationary consequences. This was exacerbated by the growing cost of serv-
icing the country’s international debts. A policy of ‘zero deficit’ was urged by
the IMF which has meant reducing the salaries and pensions of state employ-
ees by 13 per cent and cutting back on investment, further slowing economic
growth. Devaluing the peso was hugely to the disadvantage of the middle

230 Understanding Third World Politics

Expected needs

satisfaction

Actual needs

satisfaction

Intolerable gap between

actual and expected

satisfaction

Tolerable gap between

actual and expected

satisfaction

Revolution

Time

Needs

Figure 10.1 Needs satisfaction and revolution

SOURCE: Davies (1972), p. 137.