dynasties, marginalize democratic procedures, exclude other élites from
decision-making, and provide no opportunities for change are vulnerable. In
times of crisis such states have to resort to repression and the external sup-
port of foreign powers, alienating moderate political opposition and extend-
ing the appeal of revolutionary action in the absence of alternative forms of
politics. States that are highly interventionist economically (in terms of
capital formation, ownership of assets, and economic regulation) are also
vulnerable, since they attract criticism for economic as well as political
failures. All aspects of society become politicized and all social classes
are potential victims of state mismanagement (Parsa, 2000, pp. 11–14). Pre-
revolutionary Iran, Nicaragua and the Philippines were all vulnerable
because of the political exclusiveness of their regimes and their unsuccessful
interventionism. External support from the USA and reliance on military
repression failed to save them. Moderate opposition was weakened or elimi-
nated in Iran and Nicaragua, which radicalized other social elements, espe-
cially students and the clergy. In the Philippines moderate political
opponents were tolerated and able to limit the impact of revolutionary
change to the political realm (thus not producing a socialrevolution).
Shanin was influenced by Wolfe’s comparative study of the major social
and political upheavals of the twentieth century fought with peasant sup-
port: the Mexican revolution of 1910, the Russian revolutions of 1905 and
1917, the Vietnamese revolution, the Algerian liberation struggles of the
1950s, and the Cuban revolution of 1958. Though Wolfe studied revolu-
tions, his analysis distinguishes between the causes of peasant rebellions
and uprisings, and the conditions which are needed to turn such events into
factors contributing to revolution: the transition ‘from a movement aimed at
the redress of wrongs, to the attempted overthrow of society itself’. Though
peasants initially rebel to redress wrongs, ‘the iniquities against which they
rebel are but, in turn, parochial manifestations of great social dislocations.
Thus rebellion issues easily into revolution, massive movements to trans-
form the social structure as a whole’ (Wolfe, 1968, pp. 294, 302).
Revolutions in agrarian societies have been associated with the develop-
ment of capitalism and the commercialization of agriculture (see also
Shanin, 1971, pp. 249–51; Rosen, 1975, p. 15). As labour, land and wealth
are turned into commodities the peasant’s fragile equilibrium is threatened.
Politically the advent of capitalism precipitates another crisis – in the exer-
cise of power. Traditional power-holders are undermined by groups associ-
ated with commodity production and the sale of labour (Wolfe, 1968,
p. 282; see also Zagoria, 1974). A political vacuum is created when those
with economic power have yet to obtain political legitimacy and those with
244 Understanding Third World Politics