Stocks for the Long Run : the Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and Long-term Investment Strategies

five-year period, the British stock market was up 164 percent; the Swiss, 209 percent; German, 217 percent; Japanese, 288 percen ...

using portfolio insurance strategies tried to sell index futures to protect their clients’ profits that the futures market colla ...

dustrials decline by 10 percent before 2 p.m., the New York Stock Ex- change will declare a one-hour trading halt.^5 If the decl ...

such as real estate, for which daily quotations are not available. Others believe that not knowing the current price somehow mak ...

the Dow changed by more than 1 percent in two out of every three trad- ing days. Most of the periods of high volatility occur wh ...

280 FIGURE 16–3 Daily Risk on the Dow Jones Industrial Average ...

with aggregate profits negative, the equity market as a whole was trad- ing like an out-of-money option. THE VOLATILITY INDEX (V ...

In the early and mid-1990s, the Volatility Index sank to between 10 and 20. But with the onset of the Asian crises in 1997, the ...

RECENT LOW VOLATILITY As can be seen from Figures 16-3 and 16-4, volatility in 2005 and 2006 was among the lowest in history. Th ...

collapsed nearly 89 percent. During that period, there were 37 episodes when the Dow changed by 5 percent or more. Surprisingly, ...

THE ECONOMICS OF MARKET VOLATILITY Many of the complaints about market volatility are grounded in the be- lief that the market r ...

cumstances, a temporary drop in dividends (or earnings) during a re- cession should have a very minor effect on the price of a s ...

This does not mean that the markets are exempt from violent fluc- tuations. Since the future will always be uncertain, psycholog ...

This page intentionally left blank ...

17 CHAPTER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND INVESTING WITH THE TREND Many skeptics, it is true, are inclined to dismiss the whole procedur ...

Technical analysts,orchartistsas they are sometimes called, stand in sharp contrast to fundamental analystswho use such variable ...

and-sell signals are purely subjective and cannot be determined by pre- cise numerical rules. THE RANDOMNESS OF STOCK PRICES Alt ...

often quite predictable from one period to the next. Shouldn’t these pre- dictable factors make stock prices move in nonrandom p ...

CHAPTER 17 Technical Analysis and Investing with the Trend 293 FIGURE 17–1 Real and Simulated Stock Indexes Figure D Figure A Fi ...

no ability to distinguish actual from counterfeit data. The true historical prices are represented by charts b,d,e, and h, while ...