The Economist October 9th 2021 45
Middle East & AfricaIntothediplomaticwildernessAbiy against the world
A DDIS ABABA
Ethiopia is losing friends and alienating alliesI
t was oneof the grandest ceremonies
that Meskel Square had ever witnessed.
Part military parade, part cultural jambo
ree, the spectacle in the heart of the Ethio
pian capital, Addis Ababa, was so lavish
that one might have mistaken it for the in
auguration of a president or the crowning
of a monarch.
In fact, the focus of the pomp was Abiy
Ahmed, Ethiopia’s prime minister. He
came to power when his predecessor re
signed amid massive protests in 2018. Al
though the early months of his tenure in
volved mending relations with the opposi
tion and signing a peace deal with Eritrea
(for which he won a Nobel prize in 2019),
his rule has since been marred by ethnic
unrest, a slowing economy and a devastat
ing civil war in the northern state of Tigray.
The event on October 4th marked the start
of his first full fiveyear term as prime min
ister, following elections in July.
The ceremony was in part a riposte to
those questioning Abiy’s legitimacy, above
all the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front
(tplf), which once called the shots in the
country and is now at war with the centralgovernment. “We have reached a new era,”
Abiy told cheering crowds (pictured), one
in which power “emanates only from the
genuine voice of the people via the ballot
box”. But the voice was somewhat muffled
by an opposition boycott and the decision
to call the election off in a fifth of districts
because of violence. Small wonder that
Abiy’s Prosperity Party won more than 90%
of the seats contested.
The show was also aimed at an interna
tional audience. Relations between Ethio
pia and many Western countries have sunk
to their lowest point in decades. Last
month America said it would slap sanc
tions on officials involved in the war in Ti
gray if the parties (which also include Eri
trean troops fighting alongside Ethiopianforces) did not start talks or allow food to
reach those cut off by the government’s
blockade of the state. Martin Griffiths, the
un’s humanitarian chief, warned on Sep
tember 29th that hundreds of thousands
could starve. Abiy’s response was to expel
seven senior unofficials, accusing them of
“meddling” in Ethiopia’s affairs.
In his speech Abiy declared that Ethio
pia would never submit to foreign pres
sure. In the past such prickly talk typically
masked a great degree of pragmatism, as
Ethiopia attempted to win friends and gain
international influence. For instance, it
championed igad, a regional bloc, and
contributed more peacekeeping troops to
the unthan almost any other country. It al
so cultivated close ties with China and
America, becoming the latter’s eager ally in
its “war on terror”. Ethiopia enjoyed such
clout in Washington that when it invaded
Somalia in 2006 to topple an Islamist gov
ernment, America joined in.
The picture now is very different. Abiy’s
decision to cosy up to Eritrea’s dictator, Is
saias Afwerki, has divided igad. Ethiopia’s
relations with Sudan have soured, leading
to border clashes. Even more spectacular is
the falling out with the West. Barely a week
goes by without a rally against alleged for
eign interference, or a statement by a se
nior official denouncing “foreign ene
mies”. A stream of conspiracy theories
floods state media: that America is supply
ing tplffighters with druglaced biscuits,
for example, or that unagencies are smug
gling weapons. In August the government→Alsointhissection
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