The Econmist - USA (2021-10-30)

64 Middle East & Africa The Economist October 30th 2021

Israel

Bibi’s long bye-bye

T

he parallel-universe politics that

played out in Jerusalem this month

wereunusual,evenfora holycityfullof

surprises.IntherealJerusalemonOctober

10th,NaftaliBennett,Israel’sprimeminis­

ter (pictured), was glad­handing Ger­

many’soutgoingchancellor,AngelaMer­

kel,bywelcominghertoa specialsession

ofhiscabinet.IntheotherworldlyJerusa­

lem,MrBennett’spredecessor,Binyamin

Netanyahu,washoldingcourtwithJared

KushnerandIvankaTrump,theson­in­law

anddaughterofAmerica’s ex­president,

DonaldTrump,andMikePompeo,hislast

secretaryofstate.Itwasasifthevideohad

beenwoundbackto 2020,beforevoters

evictedthemallfrompower.

InofficeMrNetanyahuandMrTrump

embracedeachother.Outofpower,they

stillcastshadowsoverthepoliticsoftheir

countries.MrTrumprailsagainstthesup­

posedly “stolen” American election of

2020.MrNetanyahuacceptstheresultof

theIsraelivotethisyear,butregardsMr

Bennettasillegitimate.The faithfulstill

addressMrNetanyahuas“primeminister”.

HisLikudpartyremainsthelargestin

parliament,whereasMrBennettpresides

overa crazy­quiltcoalitionofeightparties,

stretchingfromlefttorightandincluding

anArabIslamistfaction,Ra’am.But,forall

itsoddness,thecoalitionhasprovenmore

solidthanmany expected whenit took

powerinJune,andhaschangedthetoneof

Israelipolitics.“ItellAmericansit’slike

post­Trump.It’sdecompression,”saysMe­

ravMichaeli,theLabourPartyleaderand

transport minister. “The craziness has

gone.Thatinitselfmakesahugediffer­

ence.Peoplearebreathingagain.”

IfMrNetanyahucastshimselfasthe

proto­Trump,thenthenewcoalitionmay

offeranantidotetohispolarisingpopu­

lism.Thatit representsa widespectrumof

Israelisocietymayofferanewmodelof

consensuspolitics.

Butfirstitmustsurvive.Thecoalition

willsoonfaceitssternesttest,overthe

budget.Israelhas nothad onein three

years.Withatwo­seatmajority,thegov­

ernmentisvulnerabletothewhimsofany

ofitsmembers.If thebudgetisnotadopted

by November 14th an election will be

called.Sofartherehasbeensurprisingly

littlebrinkmanship,though.Ithelpsthat

MrBennetthasmoneytodistribute:the

economyisgrowingandultra­Orthodox

partiesarenotinthecoalitiontodemand

bigsubsidiesforreligiousinstitutions.

Withabudgetinhand,thecoalition

willbehardtounseatbeforethenextbud­

getdeadlinein2023.Removingit wouldre­

quire 61 votesfora newprimeministeror

anelection,butMrNetanyahucanmuster

only53.ThebalanceisheldbyArabparties

thatareunlikelytosidewithhim.Under

thecoalitiondeal,MrBennettissupposed

tomakewayintwoyears’timeforYairLa­

pid,leaderofthecentre­leftYeshAtidpar­

tyandthearchitectofthegovernment.

MrBennetthasturnedfromright­wing

gadflytocentristproblem­solver.Hehas

gambled, seemingly successfully, on

boosterjabstoavoidanotherlockdownto

containthepandemic.OnOctober27ththe

government adopteda law to breakthe

monopolyoftheultra­Orthodoxrabbinate

onissuingkoshercertificates.Aboveall,it

isseekingtoimprovethelotofArabciti­

zensaftercommunalviolenceinMay.It

haspassedlegislationallowingthousands

ofillegallybuilthomes(mainlyofBedouin

families)tobeconnectedtotheelectricity

grid.Thebudgetallocatesmoremoneyfor

Arabneighbourhoods.Abroad,thegovern­

mentisworkingtopatchuprelationswith

EuropeancountriesandAmerica’sDemo­

craticPartythatwerefrayedunderMrNet­

anyahu. Ithasopened embassiesinthe

UnitedArabEmiratesandBahrain.

Nevertheless, MrNetanyahu remains

thecountry’smostcapablepolitician.He

hasdominatedpubliclifeformuchofthe

pastquarter­century,notonlyasthecoun­

try’slongest­servingprimeministerbutal­

soasa formidableoppositionleader.

Mr Bennett’s coalition survives through

an act of amnesia: its parties set aside the

most divisive issue, the question of Pales­

tinians  living  under  occupation.  This  has

proven  easier  done  than  said.  Years  of

bloodshed  and  disenchantment  have

created a consensus. The left concedes that

there  is  little  support  for  the  creation  of  a

Palestinian  state;  the  right  acknowledges

that  annexing  the  whole  West  Bank  is  be­

yond  reach.  So  Palestinians  are  left  in  a

patchwork of autonomous zones. 

This  pact  might  break.  Another  Gaza

war could compel Ra’am to withdraw. The

Biden administration’s attempt to re­open

an  American  consulate  in  Jerusalem  to

serve  Palestinians  may  prompt  the  defec­

tion  of  right­wingers.  Military  conflict

with  Iran,  which  Israel  is  threatening,  is

fraught with risks (see previous page). 

On  the  day  he  was  ousted  in  June,  Mr

Netanyahu confidently promised that “we

will be back soon.” But lately he seemed to

concede that the government could last its

full term, telling loyalists that Likud could

be back in power “in two weeks or another

three and a half years”.

Can  Mr  Netanyahu  wait  that  long?  At

the age of 72, being leader of the opposition

holds  little  attraction.  Well­paid  speeches

and directorships beckon. But as a member

of  the  Knesset  (Israel’s  parliament)  he  is

forbidden from making money other than

his parliamentary salary. He faces the hefty

legal cost of defending himself from sever­

al  charges  of  fraud  and  bribery,  which  he

denies.  Yet  giving  up  his  seat  would  re­

move  his  aura  as  a  prime­minister­in­

waiting, which may affect the dynamics of

his trial. Already challengers are emerging

within Likud.

By  staying  on,  Mr  Netanyahu  provides

the glue that holds the government togeth­

er. “We’re not happy with a lot of the poli­

cies,”  says  one  coalition  member.  “But  as

long  as  Netanyahu  isonthe  scene,  we’ll

stick together. No onewantsto be blamed

for allowing him back.”n

J ERUSALEM

As Binyamin Netanyahu’s shadow recedes, Israel’s new coalition is surpassing

expectations. But a crucial vote looms

The anti-Bibi