34 Chapter 2
prospects for 2010 are not very different (Vidal, 2009; 2010; Pérez,
2009; 2010). The rate of unemployment in 2008 was only 1.6 percent,
while in 1995 it was 7.9 percent. This could be explained as a result of
the social programs of the Battle of Ideas, which gave employment to
broad sectors of society. Nevertheless, it has been calculated that there
are now 1,300, 000 citizens underemployed and at risk of losing their
jobs. From October 2010 until March 2011 a half million will be
offered work in agriculture, construction, or other areas and the possi-
bility of developing a private enterprise. This will probably mean a lot
of social tension (Pérez, 2009: 22).
The economy of the island has suffered a succession of external
shocks: a drastic decline in the terms of trade (-38 percent in 2008),
mainly caused by increases in the prices of imported food and oil and
a 70 percent drop in the price of exported nickel; three hurricanes in
2008, with losses around US$10 billion; and, more recently, a financial
crisis that developed into a global economic crisis.
Since 2004, agreements with Venezuela that have provided the
opportunity to obtain external income from the export of profes-
sional services have had a significant impact on the scale of payments
and the growth of the Cuban GDP (Pérez et al., 2009; Sánchez, 2006).
Obtaining oil at lower prices in relation to the world market, receiving
payments for professional services, and a cooperation program that in
2010 will involve 285 projects mean that the relationship with Venezu-
ela is a key variable for the Cuban economy today.^16 The problem is
that the above-mentioned exports have begun to decline have not
been replaced by exports in other sectors of the economy, such as
industry and agriculture, which have been left far behind and with
very low productivity.^17
- Cuba receives 80,000 barrels of oil a day in exchange for more than 30,000 doctors,
medical personnel, and specialists in various areas such as education and sports. The
cooperation started in 2000 with 17 projects and US$ 30 million. By 2010 there were 285
projects and contracts amounting to US$3 billion (http://www.mre.gov.ve/index). - The sale of professional services has its limits, both external (a decline in demand
for and prices of these services due to the world economic crisis and lower oil prices)
and internal (negative effects on medical and other professional services in Cuba).