Politics and Civil Society in Cuba

The Cuban Revolution Today: Proposals of Changes, Scenarios, and Alternatives 59

advancing, despite the important victories and processes of consolida-

tion of leftist governments in Latin America, and in which the alterna-

tive is either to be increasingly incorporated into the international and

regional economy or to remain on the margins of history. This new

perception tends to favor in Cuban optics with more force than ever

before, and this points toward a definitive solution to the dispute with

United States without abandoning the essence of the nation.

In synthesis, a total lifting of the blockade does not seem to be pre-

dictable in the short term. Nevertheless, the economic and political

stability of the country could lead the United States to modify its hos-

tile policy and even lift the blockade in the years ahead. Some addi-

tional factors could foster this tendency: fear of a crisis of migration,

the practically unanimous condemnation of the blockade by the inter-

national community in UN resolutions; the persistent rejection by

Latin America, the EU (the main commercial partners of Cuba since

1994), and Canada of this anti-Cuban policy; and the growing rejec-

tion of this policy in the United States as damaging to the North

American people and much of its business community, which opposes

its exclusion from a sure, nearby market with numerous other advan-

tages.^40

Will Socialism in Cuba Survive?

It is obvious that the model of Cuban socialism has survived up to the

present because it has managed to avoid being deformed to the same

degree as the “real socialism” that crumbled. The Cuban Revolution is

the result of a long struggle for sovereignty and equality and has deep

historical roots. The leadership has maintained an ethical attitude and

has been able to preserve broad consensus through continuing con-

tact with the masses in the most critical situations.

40. An April 2009 CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll showed that 64 percent of
    Americans surveyed thought that the United States should lift its travel ban on Cuba,
    while 71 percent thought that the United States should reestablish diplomatic relations
    with the island nation.