Human Augmentation SIP

Annex A – Project methodology

Influence factors

1 Military needs 8 Security vulnerability 15

Technological

challenges –

physics

22

National

laws and

regulation

29

First

responders/

civilian rescue

services

2 Social drivers 9 Natural vulnerability 16 National politics 23

International

laws and

regulations

30 Diversity

3 Commercial interests 10 Research and development 17 Governance 24 System safety 31 Physical capabilities

4 Health care 11 Resources 18 Geopolitics 25

Security

(information

technology

and cyber)

32 Cognitive capabilities

5 Well-being 12 Cost 19 Culture 26 Support 33 Emotional capabilities

6 Demography 13 Acceptance 20 Religion 27 Individual drivers 34 Senses

7 Technological progress 14

Technological

challenges –

energy

21 Ethics 28 Financing 35 Morality

Table A.1 – Influence factors

Key factors

In the second step, the influence factors were subjected to a cross-impact analysis to

identify the important drivers. The process distilled the influence factors down to 14 key

factors (these can be found in Figure A.7 below). The definitions of the key factors were

sharpened during this process and four to six projections were made to each key factor.

Each projection explored how a key factor could develop in a given direction over a

30-year time horizon. This important step requires good knowledge in the respective

specialist area and enough creativity to allow an exploration of the unknown. The

projections form the backbone of the scenarios that have been developed.

Figure A.7 – The 14 key factors

Health care Military needs System safety Commercial interests Technological progress

Cost Technological challenges

International laws and

regulations

Acceptance National laws and

regulations

Research and development Individual^ drivers

Ethics Governance