Advanced Automotive Technology: Visions of a Super-Efficient Family Car

TABLE 4-1: Forecast of Advanced Technology Penetration in the Base Case

(Percentage of new vehicle fleet)

Technology Subcompact Intermediate Coreract van Standard Pickup

2005 2015 2005 2015 2005 2015 2005 2015

Advanced HSLA bodies 31.4 33.5 29.0 31.1 18.6 31.8 21.4 36.6

HSLA + high-plastics body 13.0 25.3 12.3 24.4 0 14.5 0 16.2

High-aluminum body o 5.0^0 10.5^0000

Drag, CD= 0.31a 46.8 21.6 37.4 0 64.9 0 56.6 0

Drag, CD= 0.28a 45.0 48.9 61.6 61.6 35.1 69.8 43.4 61.5

Drag, CD= 0.25a o 28.9^0 38.4^0 29.7^0 38.5

5-speed auto/CVT 24.6 36.7 27.5 42.0 21.6 59.5 18.4 36.8

4-valve/cylinder 100.0 100.0 83.4 100.0 88.2 98.0 29.4 80.0

Variable valve timing 22.0 75.2 23.5 82.0 5.0 34.1^0 39.0

Lean bum o 4.0^000000

Tires CR= 0.0085a 40.0 43.8 45.3 46.0 57.5 37.1 73.5 20.0

Tires CR= 0.0075a 4.4 37.2 2.7 52.0 6.3 62.9 8.1 80.0

Low friction metal 98.4 79.1 100.0 72.9 96.0 95.0 100.0 92.8

components

Titanium/ceramic o 20.9 0 27.1 0 5.0 0 7.2

components

Accessory improvements 29.0 40.5 43.0 60.9 17.5 52.1 23.4 69.0

aValues are for cars, but equivalent reduction from base available for trucks.

KEY: HSLA = high-strength, low-alloy steel; CVT = continuously variable transmission; CD= drag coefficient; CR= rolling resistance
coefficient.

SOURCE: Energy and Environmental Analysis,

Office of Technology Assessment, June 1995, p.

Inc., “Automotive Technologies To Improve Fuel Economy to 2015,” prepared for the

10-18.

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