The Washington Post - USA (2021-12-25)

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 25 , 2021. THE WASHINGTON POST EZ SU D3

The Browns’ Week 15 game against the Las Vegas Raiders was moved

to Monday because of a coronavirus outbreak, and Cleveland nearly

pulled out a win behind third-string quarterback Nick Mullens. The Browns

rallied for a one-point lead late in the fourth quarter, but the Raiders won it

with a field goal as time ran out. The loss was heartbreaking for the

Browns, who could have jumped into first place in the AFC North with a win

but instead fell into last place in the division and into 12th place in a tightly

packed conference. The Browns are alive, but a loss at Green Bay

combined with other results this week could eliminate them from playoff

contention....

Thanks largely to Taylor, Indianapolis leads the NFL at 5.2 yards per

carry. Meanwhile, the Arizona defense allows 4.6 yards per run, which

ranks 27th. There’s a lot on the line for Taylor, who has topped 140 yards

rushing in three of his past four games and is making a case to be in the

MVP conversation. Indianapolis enters the weekend in the AFC’s first wild-

card spot, but it has the same record as four other AFC teams.

The Cardinals have been pedestrian when playing in the desert, where

they are 3-3 (opposed to 7-1 on the road). That one road loss came last

week in Detroit, a stunner of a result for an Arizona team that had been

the first in the NFL to reach 10 wins. The Cardinals have lost four of their

past seven games and have the Rams breathing down their necks. Both

are 10-4 and tied atop the NFC West, but Arizona maintains the tiebreaker

thanks to its division record.

— Cindy Boren

The second Saturday of NFL games this season offers Aaron Rodgers

and Jonathan Taylor the chance to burnish their MVP credentials.

Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers go first, hosting the Cleveland

Browns. In the nightcap, Taylor’s Indianapolis Colts face the Arizona

Cardinals.

Fittingly for a season that has been so competitive, all four teams have

plenty at stake. The Browns and Colts are in the thick of a crowded AFC

wild-card race, and the Cardinals are trying to fight off the Los Angeles

Rams atop the NFC West. The Packers clinched the NFC North title last

week and have the league’s best record, but they still have work to do to

secure the NFC’s No. 1 seed.

4:30 p.m. Cleveland at Green Bay » Fox, NFL Network

8:15 p.m. Indianapolis at Arizona » NFL Network

Green Bay became the first team to qualify for the playoffs, securing its

third consecutive NFC North title under Coach Matt LaFleur with a win

Sunday over Baltimore. Rodgers reached a milestone with his

442nd career touchdown pass, tying Brett Favre’s franchise record in

45 fewer games, on 1,730 fewer attempts and with 193 fewer

interceptions. Are there any real weaknesses on the Packers? Special

teams remain a concern (as much as anything is a concern as long as

Rodgers’s pinkie toe holds up), but otherwise Green Bay has the inside

track to the NFC’s No. 1 seed with a home game against the Vikings and a

road game against the Lions on tap in the final two weeks.

TODAY’S NFL TV GAMES

BY NEIL GREENBERG

The smart money is always on a

quarterback to win the NFL’s MVP

award. After all, a passer has won

the honor 44 times since 1957 and

in each of the past eight seasons.

However, this year Indianapolis

Colts running back Jonathan Tay-

lor is making a case to be the first

running back to win the award

since Adrian Peterson in 2012.

Taylor leads the league in yards

from scrimmage (1,854) and

touchdowns (19), and he put on a

clinic against the New England

Patriots during the Colts’ 27-17 win

last Saturday night. Taylor rushed

for 170 yards on 29 carries, includ-

ing a game-clinching 67-yard

touchdown just before the two-

minute warning in which he

reached a top speed of 22.1 mph,

the fastest speed by a ballcarrier

this season. It was such a stunning

performance that teammates

were quick to add him to the MVP

conversation.

“There’s no question,” Colts

linebacker Darius Leonard said.

“What he’s doing now in the NFL,

there’s absolutely no question

that he’s the MVP.”

Taylor is having a magnificent

season — he is 233 yards from

scrimmage ahead of Los Angeles

Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp,

who ranks second, and two touch-

downs ahead of Los Angeles Char-

gers running back Austin Ekeler

— but there’s a big difference be-

tween a stellar season and an MVP

campaign. Taylor is behind the

pace set by the past two running

backs to win the award — Peter-

son and LaDainian Tomlinson in

2006 — in yards per game from

scrimmage. He’s also scoring at a

lower pace than Tomlinson in

2006 and Shaun Alexander in

2005, another MVP winner at run-

ning back. That doesn’t disqualify

Taylor from contention, but it

does provide some context into

what a winning campaign looks

like for a running back.

The downfall of Taylor’s MVP

case is simply that he is not as

valuable as you would assume.

Consider what “most valuable”

means. It means adding more val-

ue than any other player on the

field, and for running backs that is

extremely difficult.

The most straightforward way

to evaluate value is to look at how

many points a player is responsi-

ble for above and beyond what we

would expect from an average

player in the same situation, also

known as expected points added.

For example, we would expect a

team looking at first and 10 at the

opponent’s 45-yard line to score,

on average, 3.3 points by the end

of its possession. If a play reached

the end zone, producing six

points, then that play would “add”

2.7 points. If the play resulted in a

turnover, it would cost a player

3.3 points.

Rushing plays, as a whole, cost

teams two points per game this

season, compared with a net gain

of a point per contest from pass-

ing plays, which is why running

backs, even those head and shoul-

ders above the pack at the posi-

tion, are not as valuable as those

players featured in the passing

game. To further prove this point,

rushing plays by quarterbacks,

whether by design or scrambling,

add 0.3 more points per game to a

team’s total, while rushes by run-

ning backs cost 2.5 points per

game.

Taylor has added 28 points of

offense to the Colts this season

after taking into account the

down, distance and field position

of each of his plays, per the web-

site TruMedia. Expected points

added aren’t available for Alexan-

der’s MVP campaign in 2005, but

in sum, Taylor’s production is a

mixed bag when compared to the

MVP seasons of Alexander, Tom-

linson and Peterson through the

first 15 weeks of their seasons.

Taylor’s numbers compare fa-

vorably to Peterson’s, but there is a

major narrative difference be-

tween their campaigns, namely

that Peterson had eclipsed

2,000 total yards by Week 15 and

finished within nine yards of the

NFL record for rushing yards in a

season. The perception of running

backs also has changed quite a bit

since. When Derrick Henry ran

for 2,027 yards and 17 touchdowns

in 2020, he didn’t receive any

votes for the MVP award. The

three players who did — Aaron

Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes and

Josh Allen — were quarterbacks.

Taylor is the most valuable run-

ning back of 2021 by a wide mar-

gin, according to expected points

added; Carolina’s Christian Mc-

Caffrey (16 points added) and

Washington’s J.D. McKissic (15)

have been the next-most-valuable

players at the position. But those

numbers pale in comparison to

other players in today’s pass-

heavy NFL.

Kupp (76 points added) and

fellow wide receivers Deebo Sam-

uel (62) and Justin Jefferson (58)

are significantly ahead of Taylor in

this metric, as are wideouts such

as Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams,

Christian Kirk, Mike Williams,

Mike Evans, Kendrick Bourne and

Tyler Lockett. You have to scroll

down to the 20th-most valuable

wide receiver, the now-injured

Chris Godwin, to find one who’s

not ahead of Taylor in expected

points added. Similarly, 11 quar-

terbacks — Rodgers, Matthew

Stafford, Justin Herbert, Ma-

homes, Allen, Kirk Cousins, Jim-

my Garoppolo, Tom Brady, Kyler

Murray, Teddy Bridgewater and

Derek Carr — surpass Taylor’s ex-

pected points added.

One reason Taylor doesn’t gar-

ner more expected points added is

his usage. He gets many of his

touchdown carries inside the

5-yard line (a league-high 26 car-

ries and 11 touchdowns in those

situations), but there are dozens

of running backs capable of

punching the ball into the end

zone from five yards out. James

Conner has 16 carries inside the

5-yard line, with nine going for

touchdowns — a higher scoring

rate than Taylor’s. In fact, Taylor’s

expected points added on rushes

within five yards of the goal line is

slightly negative (minus-0.1),

while the league as a whole is

slightly positive (plus-0.1).

The oddsmakers are also skep-

tical of Taylor’s chances. He is

listed at plus-750 to win this year’s

award at the DraftKings sports-

book, with Rodgers (plus-125) and

Brady (plus-200) both significant-

ly ahead.

If Taylor had a serious chance to

be the MVP, he wouldn’t be of-

fered at close to double-digit odds

anywhere, especially not after his

stellar performance on national

television Saturday and his

11-game touchdown streak. Favor-

ites or near-favorites for these

awards tend to be offered at much

lower odds, especially this late in

the season. In 2012, Peterson was

the second choice Dec. 19 to win

the award and offered at 6-5 odds,

very close to quarterback Peyton

Manning, who was the favorite at

2-3.

This doesn’t take anything

away from how good Taylor has

been this season — he’s just not

worthy of the MVP award.

[email protected]

ANALYSIS

Taylor’s MVP bid runs into long odds

Not quite Taylor made

Taylor’s expected points average vs. recent RBs who won the MVP award.

THROUGH FIRST 15 WEEKS OF THE SEASON SCRIMMAGE YARDS TOTAL TD EPA

Shaun Alexander (2005) 1,740 24 n/a

LaDainian Tomlinson (2006) 2,110 31 +68.6

Adrian Peterson (2012) 2,023 11 +20.3

Jonathan Taylor (2021) 1,854 19 +28.3

AJ MAST/ASSOCIATED PRESS

The Colts’ Jonathan Taylor is well ahead of the other running backs, but in a pass-happy NFL, his metrics don’t stack up to other positions.

THEARON W. HENDERSON/GETTY IMAGES

The coronavirus has diminished the NBA’s schedule Saturday, but
Stephen Curry and the Warriors’ clash with the Suns is must-see TV.

The quality of Antetokounm-

po’s play has flown under the

radar a bit this season, in large

part because the defending

champions’ record is less gaudy

than it has been in recent years.

Still, the two-time MVP is averag-

ing 27 points, 11.6 rebounds and

5.8 assists, numbers matched

only by Hall of Famers Wilt

Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-

Jabbar, Oscar Robertson and El-

gin Baylor. Of course, this is the

fourth straight season that the

ultra-consistent Antetokounm-

po has hit those benchmarks,

too.

While some of his fellow stars

have seen their free throw at-

tempts dip because of the NBA’s

rule changes, Antetokounmpo

continues to plow his way to the

line more than 10 times per game.

His two-way physicality makes

him a strong candidate for both

MVP and defensive player of the

year.

Boston hasn’t enjoyed the im-

mediate turnaround it might

have hoped for after its offseason

front-office and coaching chang-

es. Under rookie coach Ime Udo-

ka, the Celtics rank 21st in of-

fense and 24th in assist percent-

age as their preexisting problems

with ball movement have lin-

gered. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen

Brown are back together after

the latter missed time with a

hamstring injury, but much of

their supporting cast is in the

protocols.

4. Dallas Mavericks (15-16)
   at Utah Jazz (22-9):
   10:30 p.m. on ESPN
   Verdict: Could get ugly.
   Doncic and Mitchell both love
   the big stage, and it’s a shame they
   won’t be able to duel. Instead, the
   focus will turn to the Jazz’s offen-
   sive machine, which has blown
   away teams and powered 17 dou-
   ble-digit wins. The gap in efficien-
   cy between Utah’s No. 1 offense
   (117.1) and the No. 2 Charlotte
   Hornets (112.7) is larger than the
   gap between the Hornets and the
   19th-ranked Philadelphia 76ers
   (108.9).
   The Mavericks are 3-7 without
   Doncic this season and rank 20th
   in offense under first-year coach
   Jason Kidd. With Kristaps Porzin-
   gis battling a toe injury and Tim
   Hardaway Jr., Maxi Kleber and
   Reggie Bullock all in the proto-
   cols with Doncic, Utah should
   have every opportunity to send
   fans to bed early.


5. Atlanta Hawks (15-16)
   at New York Knicks (14-18):
   Noon on ESPN
   Verdict: No Trae, no way.
   Atlanta has yet to reestablish
   its winning identity since its sur-
   prise trip to the 2021 Eastern
   Conference finals, and it’s unclear
   who will provide the necessary
   swagger on the road with Young
   sidelined. His absence will get
   most of the attention, but the
   Christmas opener also will suffer
   from the loss of Knicks guard
   Derrick Rose, who underwent an-
   kle surgery this week.
   After being banished from
   Coach Tom Thibodeau’s rotation
   this month, Kemba Walker had a
   season-high 44 points in a loss
   Thursday to the Washington Wiz-
   ards. Viewers will hope Walker
   and Julius Randle can get the
   Madison Square Garden crowd
   excited against a Hawks defense
   that has sagged to 24th in effi-
   ciency this year.
   [email protected]

James Harden, Jayson Tatum,
Donovan Mitchell and, perhaps,
Giannis Antetokounmpo, who
cleared the protocols Friday after
missing the Milwaukee Bucks’
past five games. Here’s a preview
of the five-game slate, ranked by
watchability considering the
many covid-related absences.

1. Golden State Warriors
   (26-6) at Phoenix Suns (26-5):
   5 p.m. on ABC

Verdict: Appointment viewing
This battle between the two
teams with the best records in the
league will be Saturday’s main
attraction, and there are plenty of
reasons to get hyped. For starters,
there’s Curry, the MVP favorite,
who set the NBA’s career three-
point record this month and then
poured in 46 points in a win over
the Memphis Grizzlies on Thurs-
day. “Vintage Steph,” Warriors
Coach Steve Kerr gushed. “That’s
about as good as it gets against a
very physical defense with great
size.”
Curry will face another big,
long and aggressive defense in
Phoenix, which has rebounded
from its 2021 Finals defeat in
spectacular fashion to win 25 of
its past 27 games. The Suns rank
second in defensive efficiency
thanks to a front line that in-
cludes imposing center Deandre
Ayton and versatile forward Mi-
kal Bridges, and Paul’s orchestra-
tion on offense was crucial in
weathering a recent hamstring
injury for Devin Booker. Remark-
ably, Phoenix is 99-34 (.744) since
the March 2020 shutdown, in-
cluding the Disney World bubble
and the 2021 playoffs, prompting
one rival coach to text this week
that the Suns are both “the best-
coached team in the NBA” and
deserving 2022 title favorites.

2. Brooklyn Nets (21-9)
   at Los Angeles Lakers (16-17):
   8 p.m. on ABC

Verdict: Give it a chance.
The Nets have claimed the
East’s best record thanks largely
to Durant, who has compensated
masterfully for Harden’s spotty
play and Kyrie Irving’s season-
long absence because of his un-
vaccinated status. Ravaged by
omicron, Brooklyn has had its
past three games postponed and
will have seven players, including
Durant, Irving and LaMarcus
Aldridge, in the protocols on
Christmas. The good news: Hard-
en was cleared Thursday and will
get the chance to go head-to-head
with James and possibly deal the
Lakers a loss in their first game at
the newly renamed Crypto.com
Arena.
Although they have avoided
postponements, James and the
Lakers aren’t in better shape than
the Nets. Coach Frank Vogel, Trev-
or Ariza, Kent Bazemore, Austin
Reaves and Avery Bradley all re-
main in the protocols, while all-
star forward Anthony Davis is
sidelined with a knee sprain. In
what appeared to be a sign of
James’s mounting frustration over
his own false-positive test result
and the Lakers’ revolving lineups
during their ugly four-game losing
streak, he posted an Instagram
meme that erroneously suggested
covid-19 was no different from the
common cold or flu.
To date, the Lakers qualify as
one of the season’s biggest disap-
pointments, with James forced to
play heavy minutes despite early-
season injuries, Russell West-
brook still struggling to find his
way and concerns about their
aging roster proving well-found-
ed. “The Lakers are going to have
a low seed,” ESPN analyst Jalen
Rose said this week. “I don’t see
this team winning the West. I
definitely don’t see this team win-
ning the championship, and
that’s with a healthy [Davis].”

3. Boston Celtics (16-16)
   at Milwaukee Bucks (21-13):
   2:30 p.m. on ABC

Verdict: Hit or miss.

NBA FROM D1

NBA’s holiday showcase

is a reduced-calorie slate

WIZARDS’ NEXT THREE

vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Sunday 6 NBCSW

at Miami Heat

Tuesday 7:30NBCSW,

NBA TV

vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Thursday 7 NBCSW

Radio: WTEM (980 AM)