the times | Monday January 3 2022 25
Leading articles
EU agrees to a wholesale renegotiation, has even
prompted talk of the suspension of the entire trade
deal. It is clear that Brexit will not be done until a
settlement is reached over the protocol.
Meanwhile, there has been scant evidence so far
of the benefits of Brexit. Mr Johnson, in a new year
message, was reduced to boasting about the return
of the crown stamp on pint glasses. Although the
government says that Britain has signed 72 trade
agreements, 70 of these extended existing EU
deals. The one new deal, signed last month with
Australia, is expected to bring economic benefits
of £2.3 billion by 2035, the equivalent of 0.08 per
cent of GDP. A deal agreed in principle with New
Zealand will bring gains of 0.01 per cent of GDP. A
deal with the United States is nowhere in sight.
Instead, the US has yet to lift tariffs on British
exports of steel and aluminium, as it has for the
EU, apparently as a way of exerting pressure on
Mr Johnson over the Northern Irish protocol.
Disappointment over Brexit is now creating
tensions within the government. Before his resig-
nation as the cabinet minister responsible for rela-
tions with the EU, Lord Frost laid bare his frustra-
tion at the lack of progress in diverging from its
rules, long regarded by Brexiteers as one of the
chief benefits of Brexit. “If we continue to followEU rules behind our tariff wall but with a smaller
market, we will not succeed,” he warned. Yet the
reality is that there is little demand from business
for divergence, which they fear will lead to in-
creased costs and further loss of access to the EU
market. Meanwhile, there is public resistance to
easing rules in areas such as employment rights or
genetic engineering.
Not surprisingly, public attitudes towards Brexit
have shifted over the past year. A clear majority
now say that it is going worse than they had
expected, including 40 per cent of Leave voters.
Fourteen per cent think it is going well.
That leaves Mr Johnson facing tough choices if
he is to win back public confidence in his flagship
policy. Does he take the opportunity provided by
Lord Frost’s departure to pursue a more
constructive approach? If so there are certainly
useful gains that could be made, building on the
current deal, including a veterinary arrangement,
improving access to the European market for
services and securing participation in EU science
programmes. Or does the prime minister bow to
pressure within his own party to commit further
to regulatory divergence and scrapping the proto-
col? If so, the economic pain is likely to get worse
before it gets better.estimates suggest that a typical household’s bills
will jump by about £500 per year. As the cost of a
warm night in rises, so too will the price of an even-
ing out. VAT for hospitality, which has been
temporarily reduced during the pandemic, will
return to the standard rate of 20 per cent. Mean-
while, national insurance will rise by 1.25 percent-
age points and a freeze on income tax thresholds
will begin.
These changes will bite just as the campaign for
the local elections, to be held on May 5, reaches its
zenith. Boris Johnson’s future could hang on the
Conservatives’ performance in that poll, which is
the prime minister’s chance to show that his lead-
ership is still a vote-winning elixir for the party
even after a string of embarrassing news involving
No 10. The prime minister may well be tempted to
spend his way into voters’ good books in advance,
not least because he has explicitly tied his political
reputation to living standards. Addressing the
Conservative Party conference last year, he boast-
ed that there would be no return, on his watch, to
the “same old broken model” of low wages and low
growth. Political pressure to ease the burden isalready building. Over the weekend several
Conservative MPs wrote a letter urging the gov-
ernment to reduce VAT on energy bills. This
would be one way to target support at those most
affected by energy price rises; ministers could also
look at the eligibility and generosity of the warm
homes discount scheme, a payment towards the
bills of the neediest households. There will be calls
for more radical intervention, too. The chancellor
will no doubt have a fight on his hands to defend
the rate of universal credit, which he brought back
to pre-pandemic levels in October after a tempo-
rary uplift.
The government should not abandon all fiscal
discipline in the hope of an electoral reward in
May. That would do little for the Tories’ reputation
as competent stewards of the economy, or indeed
as a party of low tax. The prime minister does need
a plan, though, for how to shepherd those on low
incomes through some difficult months. Worst of
all would be to insist in the first instance that the
storm must be weathered, only to yield, under pol-
itical duress, to calls for new public spending com-
mitments in the final moments before polling day.exasperated. It is not difficult to see why one’s
nearest and dearest might have misgivings about
these intrepid pursuits, particularly in light of
Casey’s decision to sell all his worldly possessions
before the journey. Locals whose help he has
sought to enlist are just as befuddled. Casey has
struggled to find guides willing to join him on his
trek, which often involves wading against the cur-
rent of the river.
Yet there is an irresistible romance in adventure
for adventure’s sake. Many great explorations of
the past were motivated by a lust for land, trade or
treasure. Modern explorers, by contrast, have littlehope of enriching themselves. Instead, they scale
peaks, cross oceans and wade through rivers in
pursuit of that sense of wonder that can only be felt
and inspired by those who do what no one has
done before. Like astronauts or great athletes, they
force their bloody-minded determination against
the frontiers of human endeavour.
In Casey’s case, those frontiers are proving a lit-
tle more stubborn than expected. When he set off
in 2015 he thought the journey would take him
two years. The timescales have slipped, but he is
now a mere 300 miles from the source of the river.
He hopes to reach it in April. Godspeed.Tough Choices
Support for the government’s EU policy is at a low ebb after a bumpy first year
for Britain’s new deal with Brussels. Regaining it will be a delicate balancing act
When Boris Johnson agreed a trade deal with the
European Union late on Christmas Eve in 2020 he
insisted that it created no new barriers to trade and
delivered on his promise to “Get Brexit Done”. Yet
it quickly became apparent that the prime minis-
ter was not being entirely truthful. Businesses
have since been hit by many new regulatory
checks, the latest of which took effect on New
Year’s Day, with more to follow this year. Exports
to the EU, which slumped 40 per cent last January,
were still 15 per cent below 2019 levels by the end
of the year, compared with a 7 per cent fall in
exports to the rest of the world. The Office for
Budget Responsibility forecasts that Brexit will
lead to a 15 per cent decline in trade with the EU
over the medium term compared with what would
have been otherwise expected.
Nor did Mr Johnson’s deal get Brexit done in the
sense that it brought an end to seemingly endless,
acrimonious negotiations with the EU. Instead,
relations with the bloc have deteriorated amid a
series of rows over vaccines, fish and the Northern
Irish protocol. Relations with Britain’s two closest
neighbours, France and Ireland, are at their lowest
in recent memory. The dispute over the protocol
in particular, which the government is threaten-
ing to repudiate by triggering Article 16 unless theImpending Squeeze
Household budgets are under growing pressure from inflation and tax rises
Few crises can be predicted many months in
advance. Much of the art of government is in how
policymakers adapt and respond to the unexpect-
ed. Yet the acute pressure on household budgets
that will build in the first months of this year is
already foreseeable, as are the attendant eco-
nomic and political risks. The government needs
a plan for how to see them off.
Inflation is high already, with consumer prices
having risen by 5.1 per cent in the year to Novem-
ber. Much of this was driven by the soaring whole-
sale price of gas and electricity. The Bank of
England tried to calm inflation with a small inter-
est rate rise last month, but there is only so much
that monetary policy can do to contain price pres-
sures driven by the vagaries of global energy
markets. Pay, meanwhile, is struggling to keep up.
Growth in real earnings was already grinding to a
halt in the final months of last year and real wages
are expected to fall for most of this year.
Households will be squeezed further by a suite
of policy measures soon to take effect. April will
be, by some margin, the cruellest month. The
energy price cap will rise sharply, and currentSpirit of Adventure
One man’s unique Amazonian voyage is to be celebrated for its sheer derring-do
Some may wonder why Pete Casey, a former
builder from West Sussex, would subject himself
to the perils and privations that come with his
attempt to become the first person to walk the
entire length of the Amazon river from sea to
source. After all, he has been ravaged by mosqui-
toes, threatened by shotgun-wielding members of
the Ashaninka indigenous community in Peru
and nearly drowned wading waist-deep through a
flooded forest in Brazil when the water level rose
unexpectedly (he survived after happening upon a
small sand island in the river, where he spent the
night). His family and friends are, for their part,UK: New Year’s Day bank holiday; final
match of the William Hill World Darts
Championship takes place at Alexandra
Palace, London (8pm).
The dormant winter
hedge is wreathed
in grey, appearing
from a distance
cobwebby and
ephemeral. It is the
final ghostly tracery
of last year’s goosegrass, reduced now to
skeins of papery vegetal matter that
disintegrate at the slightest touch. In spring
the stalks and leaves of this annual were
vigorous, sappy and clothed in hooks and
sticky burrs that tangled the hedgebank in a
net of green, but after months of sun, wind,
frost and rain, they barely exist. At the base
of the hedge fallen leaves are also
disintegrating to become this year’s soil.
Passing cars accelerate the process; though
far tougher, the leaves will not persist, as the
goosegrass has. melissa harrison
In 1980 Joy Adamson, conservationist and
author, was reported murdered in a Kenyan
game reserve. Her book Born Free (1960)
described her experiences raising lion cubs.
Greta Thunberg,
pictured, climate and
environmental activist,
19; Sarah Alexander,
actress, Jonathan Creek
(2013-16), 51; David
Atherton, conductor,
co-founder (1967) of the
London Sinfonietta, 78; Michael Barratt,
broadcaster, Nationwide (1969-77), 94;
Sir Geoffrey Bindman QC, human rights
lawyer, chairman, British Institute of
Human Rights (2005-13), 89; Eamonn
Butler, director and co-founder (1977) of the
Adam Smith Institute think tank, 70; Lord
(Robin) Butler of Brockwell, cabinet
secretary and head of the civil service
(1988-98), 84; Fran Cotton, England rugby
union player (1971-81) and founder (1987) of
Cotton Traders 75; Terry Deary, author, the
Horrible Histories series, 76; Dame Linda
Dobbs, judicial commissioner, High Court
judge (2004-13), 71; Mel Gibson, actor,
Braveheart (1995), and director, The Passion
of the Christ (2004), 66; Gavin Hastings,
rugby union player, Scotland (1986-95), 60;
John Paul Jones, co-founder of Led
Zeppelin, Stairway to Heaven (1971), 76; Sam
Laidlaw, chairman, Neptune Energy, chief
executive, Centrica (2006-14), 66; Admiral
Sir Michael Layard, second sea lord
(1993-95), 86; Anya Linden (Lady Sainsbury
of Preston Candover), ballerina, Royal
Ballet (1958-65), 89; Josie Pearson, discus
thrower, Paralympic gold medallist (2012),
and wheelchair rugby player, 36; Victoria
Principal, actress, Dallas (1978-87), 72;
Florence Pugh, actress, Little Women (2019),
26; Sir Michael Scholar, chairman, UK
Statistics Authority (2008-12), 80; Michael
Schumacher, racing driver, seven-time F1
world champion, 53; David Starkey,
historian, 77; Stephen Stills, singer-
songwriter, Buffalo Springfield and Crosby,
Stills, Nash & Young, 77; Mark Thurston,
chief executive, High Speed 2, 55; Hayley
Turner, jockey and TV presenter, 39; Justin
Webb, presenter, the Toda y programme,
BBC Radio 4, 61; Alex Wheatle, novelist,
Home Girl (2019), 59.
“It’s a delightful thing to think of perfection;
but it’s vastly more amusing to talk of errors
and absurdities.” Fanny Burney, novelist,
playwright and diarist, Camilla (1796)
Nature notes
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On this day
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