112 Scarcity and Surfeitwhole group, triggering 'preventative' killing of the perceived aggressors; an
interpretation which each group sees as borne out by memories of 1972.
Secondly, concepts of democracy have become inextricably linked to the
ethnic calculus, severely constraining options for an end to military rule. As
Reyntjens laments about the Arusha agreement, which "institutionalised eth-
nicity as an important political variable through the introduction of quotas
and the practice of alternation [of leadership along ethnic lines], ... in the
Burundi demographic context no solution is possible as long as ethnicity
remains the only factor of political str~cturing."'~ The conflation of Hutus
with the political majority and Tutsi with the political minority, were there a
democratic system, remains deeply ingrained in the peace negotiations.
Thirdly, ethnicity has also shaped the regional dynamics of the conflict.
Hutn rebels from Rwanda and Burundi, who live in the same refugee camps
in the DRC and Tanzania, are fighting together and in each other's domestic
conflicts. Alliances between Burundi rebels and other fighting groups in the
DRC have also revolved around ethnic categories.
Refugees
The hundreds of thousands of refugees who are spread out in the entire Great
Lakes region because of ethnic repression and massacres have created a
dynamic that fundamentally shapes each new outbreak of violence. Refugee
camps are used as training and recruitment camps for rebel militias, and as
rear bases for attacks on the refugee home countries. FDD, FLN and
Palipehutu members all grew up in extreme conditions of scarcity and chron-
ic insecurity in such camps, explaining some of the motivation to return
home, even using force. This process has a strong regional dimension.
Burundian refugees in camps in Tanzania and the DRC have formed alliances
with Rwandan refugees and local groups in DRC. Refugees and exiles who
have managed to go further afield, some to developed countries, provide
funding for rebel groups.
The question of refugees also poses a central problem for the peace
process. Their possible return to Burundi raises issues of land distribution, the
return of property and resources taken from them during the violence and a
paucity of jobs and resources in general. One of the main issues that triggered
a return to violence in 1993 was the expected massive return of Hutu refugees.
Conflict Resolution
We have analysed the history and underlying causes of the war that has been
raging in Burundi since 1993. But what are the prospects for peace? Given
our analysis that there are two conflict levels - firstly the resource and access