214 Scarcity and Surfeit
small administrative islands, southern Sudan has remained in a time warp
characterised by social and technological stasis.
Sudan's overall population recorded a sharp dive during the 17 years
under the Mahdi, but has grown steadily since. Kelly's inference that the
Dinka grew faster than the Nuer during the post-Mahdi period is predicated
on the logic that they lived close to most major river ports and administration
centers. And though most of the Nuer remained isolated on the periphery,
census data from the 1930s indicates a steady increase in their population
densities, corresponding to their increase from 247 000 to 460 000 in the
short span of 25 years up to the1950~.~'
Differentials in cattle and cultivation between the Nuer and Dinka
remained relatively constant according to empirical data on cattle per capita
from the 1950s. Among the Bor district southern Dinka there was a cattle per
capita ratio of 1.66, whereas the Lou Nuer had 2.26 cattle per capita42.
Barbour observes that " In the central part of the region [the Southern Clay
Plains] the supply of grain barely suffices for subsistence even in the good
years, and when conditions have been bad imports from central Sudan are
necessary, paid for by the sale of cattle".43 More recently, the Nuer have
imported from three to six hundred metric tons of grain in years of short-
age~.~~
Cycle Two: Nuer-Dinka violence
In the absence of detailed information on the grass-roots impact, we can
assume the Anyanya rebellion - the second cycle in the north-south conflict
- halted whatever limited progress was realised in the south until it ended
with the Addis Ababa Accord in 1972. The following period witnessed an
impressive spurt in infrastructural and social development, until the resump-
tion of hostilities by the SPLA in 1983 - the third and still unresolved cycle
in the conflict.
The prominence of elites from Equatoria in the leadership of the Anyanya
indicates that most pre-independence education occurred in the ecologically
stable band spanning the two provinces bearing that name. Many refugees
displaced by the war came from the same population. Individuals from the
younger generation of these refugees subsequently benefited through educa-
tion and exposure to outside contacts. Equatoria has been relatively less
affected by the current war. The SPLA captured western Equatoria and a por-
tion of eastern Equatoria during the early phase of the war. The government
retook Torit and surrounding areas, and most of eastern Equatoria remains
under government control.
Dinka defectors from the military and elites provide the core leadership of
the SPLA/SPLM. During the peak of its military success the movement also
incorporated many affines from the Shilluk, Nuer, and groups in Equatoria.
