284 Scarcity and Surfeit
the Afar pastoralists through a decree that all illegal weapons should be sur-
rendered to the administrati~n.'~~ Limited demobilisation of the Afar popula-
tion has increased their vulnerability to other armed groups, not least the
Somali Issa, who, it is suggested, may well receive arms illicitly from
Somalia.lSs Somalia, it is explained, is a state which remains in pursuit of an
expansionist policy that in the past has attempted to attain parts of the Awash
Valley to form a Greater Somali nation.
Conflict, therefore, is set to continue for the near future as pressure to con-
trol land and natural resources increases. In particular, commercial interests
will grow as the exploitation of land and resources is encouraged to generate
much-needed government revenue and local income. Many resources that are
currently only being used for small-scale local and national use have the
potential to be exported regionally and internationally. Indeed, it is suggest-
ed that there are large, actual or potential mineral resources, such as gold in
the Adola of Borana, natural gas in the Ogaden, salt mines in the Afar, or
soda ash in the Rift Valley.lSG Gold, for example, has already been the source
of local conflict in the south of the country around Omo. The Surma peoples
in the lowlands regularly ambush highland peoples who have come to the
area to pan, collect and return gold to the cities for sale. It seems likely that
these resources, including water, will become the source of greater competi-
tion and conflict as Ethiopia develops infrastructure to utilise and exploit
resources, supported by investments from overseas business interests.
RegionalisationThe ongoing regionalisation process has benefited certain ethnic groups
through recognition and support for dominant parties in a certain area. For
example, the Afar and Somali dominate their so-named federal states.
However, it may also affect the allocation of resources at the expense of cer-
tain ethnic or religious groups, and thereby lead to the politicisation and
mobilisation of identity. Indeed, because regionalisation has occurred along
ethnic lines, it is likely that certain groups who currently are not fairly repre-
sented or have little power to influence critical decision-making processes
will remain marginalised and vulnerable to exploitation by more politically
powerful groups.
Within the Afar regional government, groups such as the Kerreyu and
Argoba are barely represented. Changes in distribution of land with the
recently defined regions between Somali and Oromiya regions have escalat-
ed ethnic conflict in the Borana area (specifically between the Somali clans
in Liben and Arero wards in the Borana lowlands). As Alem Hadera Abay
imparts: "The ethnic-based regionalisation and mapping of administrative
regions has created or added more tension to what is a conflict-prone part of
Ethiopia."lS7