Scarcity and surfeit : the ecology of Africa's conflicts

Spilling Blwd over Water? The Case of Ethiopia 295

Table 9: Contribution to the Nile'93

Catchment 1 Tnbutan l~nnwlconhibv(icn~lI FkodDeriodRb) 1

I Ethiopion highlands I Blue Nile [Abby) I 59.0 I 68.0 I

outside its borders. The fear that a hostile power in the upper reaches of the
Nile might sometime in the future 'block' water flows downstream led
European colonial powers and Egyptian leaders to seek different means of con-
trolling the Nile and to coordinate the development of water resources through-
out the basin.'94
For instance, the construction of the High Dam at Aswan in Egypt was pri-
marily geared to ensure security against the consequences of unreliable
annual flow of the Nile and the need for securing control over the water sup-
ply of the Nile by the downstream states.'95 The Dam fragmented use plans
and development strategies in the Nile Basin with no involvement of the
other upstream countries or consideration of their national development
interests, including Ethiopia.
There is no comprehensive agreement on the use and allocation of Nile
waters to date. The bilateral agreement concluded between Egypt and Sudan
in 1959, otherwise known as the 1959 Nile Waters Agreement, allocated the
entire flow of the Nile to the two downstream states to the exclusion of the
upstream riparian states.
The current unbalanced allocation of Nile waters is unlikely to persist into
the future. Ethiopia is faced with increased population pressure, and conse-
quently is increasing its demand for the use of the Nile waters to meet its
development needs, including improving rural livelihoods in the Ethiopian
highlands. The importance of using the Nile waters for irrigated agricultural
production in Ethiopia is considered of crucial priority in order to mitigate
uncontrolled environmental degradation and recurring drought and famine
in Ethiopia over the past several decades. Growing demands for Nile waters
by the different basin states has fuelled competing demands, leading to ten-
sion and potential conflicts should an agreement not be reached.
The growing population, particularly in Ethiopia, is increasing demands
for Nile waters. The total population of the Nile Basin countries in 1995 was

I

Equaloriol lakes

Sobt (8oreobl

Alhm ITekeuiel

E!ahrd-JeSel

[Uppei While Nilel , I I

14.0

13.0

5.0

22.0

14.0 5.0