The Economist - USA (2022-01-29)

4 TechnologyQuarterlyDefencetechnology TheEconomistJanuary29th 2022

itaryofficer,putitlastyear,“You’vegotan

abilitytoseeandanabilitytohitatrangethat

hasneverexistedbeforeinhumanhistory.”

Suchabilitiesarelikelytomattera lotinsome

sortsofset­piececonflict.InthewarsAmerica

hasactuallybeenfighting,warsagainstinsur­

genciesarmedwithimprovisedexplosivede­

vices(ieds)andthelike,theyhaveprovedless

ofa help.

Now Azerbaijan, a decidedly non­great

power,hadachieveda similarsortofcapabili­

tyfarmorecheaply.Similardoesnotmean

trulycomparable:a betterarmedandprepared

adversarymighthaveeasilyseenthemoff.Butthata smallwarin

theCaucasus provided portentsof a“transparent battlespace

[whichis]effectivelyonegiantsensor,”asSirMarkputit,wasstill

aneyeopener.

Telecommunications—semaphore,thentelegraph,thenwire­

less—havebeenlettingspotterstellshootersoftargetstheshoot­

erscannotseeforcenturies.Butthemodernnotionofcreating

“killchains”froma rangeofsensorstoa rangeofshootersonthe

flyiswidelytracedtothe1970s.ThatwaswhenSovietmilitary

theoristsbegantotalkofwhattheycalledthe“reconnaissance­

strikecomplex”—anetworkedsysteminwhich,forexample,a

fighterjetmightfunneldataona targetit couldnotattackitselfto

a cruisemissilefiredfroma warshipwhichcould.

Phoningit in

Fortheculminationofsuchthinking,considerAmerica’sf-35. As

wellassneakingpastairdefencesanddroppingprecisionguided

munitionsonthemandothertargets,thisstrikeaircraftalsogath­

ersscadsofinformationforothersandfunctionsasa giantflying

router,channellingdatatoandfromnearbyaircraft,otherforces

intheareaandcommanders whomaybehalfa worldaway.

Thereconnaissance­strikecomplexhasthuscomeofage.“To­

day this cycle—reconnaissance­fire­defeat—is literally tens of

seconds,”boastedMajor­GeneralVladimirMarusin,thenRussia’s

deputychiefofgroundforces,in2015.Stillmorespeedmaybe

availablequitesoon;hypersonicmissilesandspeedoflightweap­

onssuchaslaserbeamsandmicrowavesarealltherage.

Inpractice,thetimeithastakenRussiangunstoactondata

fromRussiandronesduringtheconflictinUkraine’sDonbasre­

gion,theconflicttowhichGeneralMarusinwasreferring,hasnot

comedownquiteasfarasitmight.Butitisshortenoughtomake

lifeonthereceivingendeverharder.WhenMickRyan,a major­

generalwholedAustralia’sdefenceacademyuntilDecember,says

that,“Theabilitytolinksensorstocommandersandtoweapons

over the last 20­30 years has profoundly

changedourconceptionoftimeonthebattle­

field,”itisthefightingintheDonbasheis

thinkingof.IntheGulfwar,orforthatmatter

alongtheHoChiMinhtrail,therewasoften

mostofanhourbetweenbeingspottedand

beingonthereceivingendofanartillerybar­

rageorairstrike.Now,saysGeneralRyan,“If

wethinkwe’vebeenspotted,wehavetenmin­

utes—andif we’renotgone,we’redead.”

Astechnologiesgetmoreaffordablethey

spread.Bayraktar, Turkey’s tb 2 maker, has

plentyofcustomersforitsdrones(seemap).

Moreimportant than thechange in who uses suchsystems,

though,maybehowtheyareused.Havinga fewdronesallowsyou

toreplacea fewplanes.Havinga lotofdronesallowsyoutodo

thingsthatwerenotpreviouslypossible,suchasestablishing

widerangingandpersistentsurveillancesystems.Anddevelop­

mentsoutsidethemilitarysuggestthatthetrendtowardsthings

gettingsmaller,cheaperandmorenumeroushasa longwaytogo.

Overthepastdecadesmartphoneengineershavebeenmaking

a widerangeofsensorssmallerandlessenergy­intensivewiththe

sortofwellresourcedzealonlyanindustrywithrevenuesinthe

trillionscancommand.A $1,000phonecomesnotjustwitha pa­

noplyofcameraspointedinvariousdirectionsandworkingatva­

riouswavelengthsbutalsowithoneormorephotometers,barom­

eters,accelerometers,hygrometers,magnetometers,gyroscopes

andmicrophones.Italsoboastsradioantennaethatpickupsig­

nalsfromnavigationsatellites,nearbyBluetoothaccessories,pay­

mentterminals,Wi­Finetworksandeven,nowandthen,mobile­

phonetowers.

Aremarkableamountoftheprocessingpowerthosesensors

andnetworksneedsitsrightthereinthephone.Moreistobe

foundinthecloud,whereitcanbefedintoartificialintelligence

(ai) systemswhichplotthebestroutetotakeinthisevening’straf­

fic, translatefrom Serbian to Portuguese andrecognise your

friendsinpictures.

Appliedbeyondthephonethesecontinuouslyimprovingtech­

nologiesmakeallsortsofwizardrypossible.Theyhave,forexam­

ple,hugelyexpandedwhatcanbedonewithsmall,cheapsatel­

lites,aswellaswithciviliandrones.Andtheycannowbebuiltin­

toartilleryshells,orintobattledress,orjustscatteredaroundthe

combatzones.“I’mgoingtohavetothinkveryhardabouthowI

cangettowithinthreekilometresofanobjective,”saysa British

infantryofficerwhorecently completedanexerciseinvolving

cheap,off­the­shelfcameratechnologycapableofrecognisinghu­

mansatlongranges.

Thisreportlooksatthe“intensecompetitionbetweenhiding

andfinding”thesetechnologiesaremakingpossible,toborrowa

phrasefromthenew“operatingconcept”forBritain’sarmedforc­

esannouncedin2020.It examinesnewlyaccessibleandnewlyaf­

fordablewaysofseeing, andatwaysforthedatathuscollectedto

bebroughttogetherandunderstood.Italsolooksatthestealth,

electronicwarfare,cyber­attacksandotherdeceptionwhichhid­

erscanusetostayhidden.

Cometogether

These changes have tactical implications. The trend towards

transparentbattlespacesmayseebasicmilitarytenetsrethought.

Officersdrilledintheimportanceofmassingtheirforcesinorder

toconcentratetheirfirepowerwillbelearningtofightinsmaller,

more dispersed units. “Mass potentiallycan be aweakness,”

warnedGeneralSirNickCarter,Britain’sthenchiefofdefence

staff,reflectingonthelessonsofNagorno­Karabakh.

Thesamemaybetrueofmanoeuvre—aprinciplewhich,like

thatofmass,militarythinkersholddear.“Theseco­evolvingcon­

cepts,tactics,andcommercialandmilitarytechnologiesareonce

Morocco

Tunisia

Libya

Niger

Qatar

Tu r ke y

Iraq Turkmenistan

Britain

Hungary

Latvia

Bulgaria

Serbia

Albania

Pakistan

Oman

Ethiopia

Nigeria

Azerbaijan

Ukraine Kazakhstan

Poland

Turkish Bayraktar

drones, Jan 2022

Operators

Shown interest/

negotiating

Source: @infantmilitario

Telegram channel

“Our conception

of time on the

battlefield has

changed profoundly ”

— General Mick Ryan