Anon

Multiple Linear Regression 61

TAbLE 3.5 Monthly Data for 10-Year Treasury Yield, Expected Inflation (%), and
Real Rate (%), November 1965–December 2005

Date

10-Yr.

Treas.

Yield

Exp.

Infl.

Real

Rate Date

10-Yr.

Treas.

Yield

Exp.

Infl.

Real

Rate Date

10-Yr.

Treas.

Yield

Exp.

Infl.

Real
Rate
1965
Nov
Dec

4.45

4.62

1.326

1.330

2.739
2.757
1966 1969 1972
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

4.61

4.83

4.87

4.75

4.78

4.81

5.02

5.22

5.18

5.01

5.16

4.84

1.334

1.348

1.358

1.372

1.391

1.416

1.440

1.464

1.487

1.532

1.566

1.594

2.780

2.794

2.820

2.842

2.861

2.883

2.910

2.945

2.982

2.997

3.022

3.050

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

6.04

6.19

6.3

6.17

6.32

6.57

6.72

6.69

7.16

7.1

7.14

7.65

2.745

2.802

2.869

2.945

3.016

3.086

3.156

3.236

3.315

3.393

3.461

3.539

2.811

2.826

2.830

2.827

2.862

2.895

2.929

2.967

3.001

3.014

3.045

3.059

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

5.95

6.08

6.07

6.19

6.13

6.11

6.11

6.21

6.55

6.48

6.28

6.36

4.959

4.959

4.953

4.953

4.949

4.941

4.933

4.924

4.916

4.912

4.899

4.886

2.401
2.389
2.397
2.403
2.398
2.405
2.422
2.439
2.450
2.458
2.461
2.468
1967 1970 1973
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

4.58

4.63

4.54

4.59

4.85

5.02

5.16

5.28

5.3

5.48

5.75

5.7

1.633

1.667

1.706

1.739

1.767

1.801

1.834

1.871

1.909

1.942

1.985

2.027

3.047

3.050

3.039

3.027

3.021

3.015

3.004

2.987

2.980

2.975

2.974

2.972

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

7.80

7.24

7.07

7.39

7.91

7.84

7.46

7.53

7.39

7.33

6.84

6.39

3.621

3.698

3.779

3.854

3.933

4.021

4.104

4.187

4.264

4.345

4.436

4.520

3.061

3.064

3.046

3.035

3.021

3.001

2.981

2.956

2.938

2.901

2.843

2.780

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

6.46

6.64

6.71

6.67

6.85

6.90

7.13

7.40

7.09

6.79

6.73

6.74

4.865

4.838

4.818

4.795

4.776

4.752

4.723

4.699

4.682

4.668

4.657

4.651

2.509
2.583
2.641
2.690
2.734
2.795
2.909
3.023
3.110
3.185
3.254
3.312
1968 1971 1974
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

5.53

5.56

5.74

5.64

5.87

5.72

5.5

5.42

5.46

5.58

5.7

6.03

2.074

2.126

2.177

2.229

2.285

2.341

2.402

2.457

2.517

2.576

2.639

2.697

2.959

2.943

2.937

2.935

2.934

2.928

2.906

2.887

2.862

2.827

2.808

2.798

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

6.24

6.11

5.70

5.83

6.39

6.52

6.73

6.58

6.14

5.93

5.81

5.93

4.605

4.680

4.741

4.793

4.844

4.885

4.921

4.947

4.964

4.968

4.968

4.964

2.703

2.627

2.565

2.522

2.501

2.467

2.436

2.450

2.442

2.422

2.411

2.404

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

6.99

6.96

7.21

7.51

7.58

7.54

7.81

8.04

8.04

7.9

7.68

7.43

4.652

4.653

4.656

4.657

4.678

4.713

4.763

4.827

4.898

4.975

5.063

5.154

3.330

3.332

3.353

3.404

3.405

3.419

3.421

3.401

3.346

3.271

3.176

3.086

(continued)