The Economist - USA (2022-02-12)

The Economist February 12th 2022 Asia 31

ThePhilippinepresidentialelection

Bloodfeuds

M

issingfromtheofficialstartofcam paigning,onFebruary8th,werethe songanddanceperformancesthatusual ly signal the launch ofPhilippine elec tions.Missingtoowasanysenseofsus pense. Polls put Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcossofaraheadofothercandidatesfor presidentthatheseemscertaintowinthe voteonMay9th.OpinionsurveysinDe cemberandJanuarybothgavehimwellov erhalfthetotalvote.Whywastegoodmon eyonrazzmatazz? Although few Filipinos reallybelieve thatsuitabilityforpoliticalofficerunsin theblood,manycertainlyvoteasif it does. Twoofthethreemostrecentpresidents, BenignoAquinoandGloriaArroyo,were theoffspringofpreviousones.RodrigoDu terte,thefoulmouthedincumbent,isan exception.ThepopularityofMrMarcos, thesonofthelatepresidentofthesame name,isa returntoform.Heisparticularly attractivetoyoungervoters,whoseemei therunconcernedaboutorunawareofthe recordoftheolderMarcos,a dictatorwho ruled forovertwodecades andwasde posedonlyaftera popularuprisingin1986. TheyoungerMrMarcostriestomaintain hisappealbyavoidingthesubjectofhisfa ther’sregimealltogether. YettheprospectofanotherMarcosin Malacañang,asthepresidentialpalaceis known, enragesmany othervoters who seemtobelievethatunsuitabilityforpolit icalofficealsorunsintheblood.Detec tives are investigating one suspected threattokillMrMarcos.Morelawfulef fortstokeephimoutofthepresidential palaceareunderway,too.Twosetsofpeti tionsto stop him contestinghave been submitted to the Commission on Elec tions.TheyarguethatMrMarcos’srecord as a convicted criminal—he was found guiltyoffailingtosubmittaxreturnswhen hewasa provincialgovernor—disqualifies himfrompublicoffice. Acommitteeofthecommissionreject edone setofpetitions. Thepetitioners have appealed to the commission as a whole.A separatecommitteedisbandedin disarray before rulingon theother set. Thatcommitteeisduetobereformedwith newmembers.Whateverrulingsareeven tuallyhandeddown,eitherthepetitioners orMrMarcoswillappealagainstthemin theSupremeCourt. Inthemeantime,thecommissionhas startedprintingballotforms,withMrMar

M ANILA Anabsolutemajoritymaynotbe enoughforFerdinandMarcosJrtowin

PropertypricesinNewZealand

Quarter-acre

heartbreaker

I

f there isone subject thatanimates New Zealanders more than rugby or pan demic restrictions, it is the cost of housing. Homeownership has been a national ob session ever since the British, a people no toriously obsessed with claiming title to piles of bricks, first colonised the Pacific islands. Emigrants left draughty terraced homes for the “Kiwi dream” of a “quarter acre block”. That fantasy has become increasingly difficult to realise. The aver age home in Auckland, the commercial capital, now costs NZ$1.4m ($935,000), 35 times the median income. Auckland is at the centre of a house price boom that is roiling the country. Low interest rates and lashings of fiscal stimu lus have sent prices soaring everywhere. But even by those standards New Zealand’s recent gains look stratospheric. Last year its house prices rose by more than a quar ter, according to CoreLogic, a business which tracks them. Relative to incomes, New Zealand has the world’s sixthmost expensive houses. House prices are “un sustainable”, warns the central bank, which acted in November to restrict lend ing to people with smaller deposits. This is compounding a housing crisis which has worried Kiwis for decades. New Zealand is “a housing market with an econ omy attached”, says Shamubeel Eaqub, an independent economist. Adjusted for in flation, its house prices rose by 256% be tween 2000 and mid2021, compared with 64% in America and 110% in Britain. A chronic shortage of affordable homes has forced families to sleep in tents and cars. “The situation in New Zealand is dire,” says Matthew, a 52yearold who does not have a home (he declined to use his surname). This is bad news for the prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, and her Labour party. When she was first elected in 2017 she made lofty pledges to give Kiwis cheap houses. “We can make home ownership possible again,” she promised in a speech which has aged like milk. Since then, the number of applicants waiting for public housing has more than quadrupled to over 24,000. More than half of those are Maori, the country’s indigenous people, who make up just 17% of its population, says Ronji Tanielu of the Salvation Army, a Christian charity. Last year New Zealand’s Human Rights Commission launched an inquiry into the “right to a decent home”, piling pressure on Ms Ardern.

Hergovernmenthasnotalwayshelped itself.Itpromisedin 2017 toerect100,000 affordablehousesthrougha schemecalled KiwiBuild.BylastMayithadslappedup only1,000.Thetargethasbeenabandoned. Anattempttohouseroughsleepershas alsobackfired.Thegovernmenthaspaid motelownerstoconverttheirroomsinto “emergencyaccommodation”.Asa result, saysMrTanielu,“Theyareshovingsingle mums next to gang membersand drug dealers.”Matthewnotes,“Therearea lotof peoplewholikethesituation.Ifyouwant tobuymeth,gointoemergencyhousing. Butif thatisnotyourinterest,it’sa danger oussituation.” Lastyearhewasshuffledbetween 29 motelsandboardinghouses.Ninemonths later,hedecideditwasa moremiserable experiencethanbeinghomeless.Heleftto liveinaparkwhereatleasttherewasa beach,a showeranda barbecue,hesays. Hehassincefounda placethroughLife wise,a charity. MsArdernarguesthatthegovernment is“pullingeveryleverwehaveavailableto us”. Ithasintroduced measuresto curb speculationandboostsupply.Ithasclosed taxloopholesandtightenedrulesontax ing investors who flip their properties withintenyears,upfromfive.It isfunding councils to buildinfrastructurefor new developmentsandhasconstructedmore than 6,500publichousingunits.In De cemberitpassedradicalreformstoplan ninglaws,whichwillfreeuplandandal lowownerstobuildeasilyintheirback yards.Nootherpostwargovernmenthas donesomuchtoreformthehousingmar ket,saysMrEaqub,“Butthesearethings thatwilltakeyearstocometofruition.” The moveshave notsatisfied voters. MoreadultsinNewZealandnowrentthan owntheirhouses,saysMrEaqub.Sincethe countryhasmostlybeenfreeofcovid19, theexpenseofhousingisKiwis’biggest gripe:overhalfofthemnowlistitastheir topconcern,accordingtoIpsos,a pollster. TheirfaithinMsArdernissliding.Thatis thedangerofpromisingmiracles.n

SYDNEY The government is scrambling to cool an overheated housing market

Through the roof Real house prices, Q1 2000=100

Source:OECD

350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2110200090801970

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