the times | Wednesday February 16 2022 11News
Russia is now a more capable military
power than at any time since the disso-
lution of the Soviet Union, with billions
of pounds invested in modernising its
forces, experts have said.
James Hackett, editor of The Military
Balance, an in-depth assessment of mil-
itary capabilities that is published each
year, said that in the early 1990s Russia
suffered from a reduction in defence
procurement, with many projects
shelved. However, after the conflict
with Georgia in 2008 Russia invested
in modernising its military, with tanks
and heavy artillery systems upgraded
and its naval forces transformed.
Figures released alongside the
publication of this year’s assessment
showed that Russia’s total defence
budget — which includes military
housing, social spending and pensions
— came to $62.2 billion (£46 billion),
up from $57.3 billion in 2016. Fenella
McGerty, senior fellow for defence eco-
nomics at the International Institute
for Strategic Studies, which publishes
The Military Balance, pointed out that
in real terms Russian defence spending
had fallen over that time frame, from
$60.8 billion to $55.7 billion.
Dr John Chipman, director-general
of the institute, said that concerns over
Russia’s military capabilities and poss-
ible actions in recent years had been
“important in motivating European
states to increase defence spending”.
European defence spending grew by
4.8 per cent in real terms last year, the
fastest pace recorded for any region.
The assessment said European coun-
tries had “turned a corner in terms of
their defence spending since Russia’s
annexation of Crimea in 2014 and sub-
sequent military intervention in east-
ern Ukraine upended the continent’s
security landscape”.
It also said “concern over Chinese
and Russian military developments
was driving regional as well as wider
international military developments”.
The UK overtook India to become
the third largest defence spender,
according to the assessment of 171
countries. The UK’s defence budget forlast year was $71.6 billion, with only the
United States ($754 billion) and China
($207.3 billion) spending more. Russia
was fifth, behind India.
Chipman said Russia’s armed forces
were different to those that fought the
short war with Georgia in 2008. Its
troops are now mostly contract person-
nel, not conscripts, while its weapons,
including its nuclear arsenal, “are on
the whole more modern”. He added: “Its
cruise missiles can strike from ranges
over 2,000km.”
He said Russia had effective mobile
air defence systems and an increasingly
modern air force, adding: “Less progress
may have been made in modernising
army equipment, but Russia’s ground
manoeuvre capabilities are nonethe-
less superior to those of Ukraine.”
In reference to the tensions with
Ukraine, Chipman said Russia had a
“wide range of tools at its disposal”
when it came to attacking the country,
including cyberattacks. He said that
rather than a full-scale invasion consid-
ered possible by the West, there were
probably enough troops present to con-
duct a “more limited ground opera-
tion”, including seizing eastern regions.White House creates ‘tiger
team’ to prepare game plan
David Charter WashingtonThe White House has assembled a
“tiger team” of officials and experts to
prepare responses to various scenarios,
including a full-scale invasion of
Ukraine and “asymmetrical attacks”
using unconventional weapons and
tactics.
The team has held two “table-top”
exercises, each lasting several hours,
with the goal of preparing the US to act
quickly to whatever Russia decides to
do.
Officials said the team consisted of
experts from organisations including
the National Security Council, the
State Department, Homeland Security,
the Office of the Secretary of Defence
and the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
The team was assembled by Alexan-
der Bick, the director for strategic
planning at the National Security
Council, who helped to devise the US
strategy to defeat Islamic State.
“Our hope is still that there’s a diplo-matic path to avoiding all of this so we
never have to use the playbook,”
Jonathan Finer, deputy national secur-
ity adviser to President Biden, told The
Washington Post. “But this is all about
making sure we are ready to go if and
when we have to be.”
Among the tiger team’s main con-
cerns is a false Russian narrative that it
is Ukraine and the West preparing to
launch an attack in eastern Ukraine.
The team has helped to drive the
aggressive release of western intelli-
gence to deny Russia the element of
surprise and to counter disinformation.
The two table-top exercises were run
in December. An NSC official said: “It’s
one thing to consider each of these
problems — energy, sanctions, military
posture — in isolation. It’s quite
another to put them all together and
execute a plan on all of them.
“What I saw over the course of this
planning exercise was, including at the
most senior levels, lightbulbs go on
about the way the pieces fit together.”photographs from the defence ministry. In the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, left, pro-Russian forces stand readyNews
Years of investment
leave Putin with a
modern lethal force
Larisa Brown Defence Editor Forces compared
Source: IISS Military Balance 2022Russia UkraineCombat
troops
Reserves
Main battle
tanks
Artillery
Attack
submarines
Nuclear
submarines
Combat
aircraft
Attack
helicopters
Aircraft
carriers
Frigates196,900,
8581,
00124001900,2,000,
2,4,
20111,399116RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY PRESS SERVICE; ALEXANDER ERMOCHENKO/REUTERSto impose sanctions of its own
businesses were hit by a
ransomware attack that US
intelligence said was carried out by
REvil, a cybercrime gang
operating out of Russia. Although
the gang was not thought to be
linked to the Kremlin, hackers are
often forced or enticed into
working with Russian security
services.
President Putin warned
President Biden in December
that further sanctions against
Russia would lead to “a
complete rupture of
relations”. A Kremlin
official said targeting
Russia with new
sanctions would be a
mistake “which our
descendants will latersee as a huge one”. Tensions
between Russia and the US have
already led to a ban on the
American embassy in Moscow and
its consulates from hiring Russian
citizens. The US said last year it
had no choice to but to close down
consulate services, meaning
Russians are forced to travel
abroad to apply for US visas.
Moscow could also target
western media outlets. A BBC
correspondent was expelled
from the country last year,
while Russia recently
ordered Deutsche
Welle, the German
media outlet, to shut
down its operations
in the country
after RT, the
Kremlin-funded
TV channel, was
banned from
broadcasting in
Germany.fellow at the American Enterprise
Institute, wrote in an article for the
Defense One website.
Even if Russia did not impose a
formal ban, it could still make life
difficult for airliners. “Every one of
those operations requires advance
clearance and that’s not always
routinely granted. If things got
serious some of those requests
could just go unanswered,” Robert
Mann, an analyst, told Reuters.
Even though Russia earns large
fees from overflights, US airlines
have expressed fears that Moscow
could choose to disrupt
connections to Asia and the
Middle East from North America.
New sanctions against Russia
could also provoke cyberattacks on
western infrastructure. Suspected
Russian hackers have in the past
successfully targeted Ukrainian
electricity supplies, as well as a
Norwegian food producer. Last
year hundreds of AmericanPresident Biden was
warned of a rupture
in relations with
Russia in December