The Economist February 19th 2022 23
BritainTheConservativePartyOld dudes
B
oris johnson did not promise to be a
great prime minister. He knew many in
the Conservative Party loathed him. But he
came into office in July 2019 after sweeping
a Tory leadership contest with a simple of
fer: that only he could rescue the party
from an existential crisis.
That spring the Brexit deal crafted by
his predecessor, Theresa May, had been re
jected three times by Parliament. The party
had split, paralysing business in the House
of Commons. Its vote share collapsed to
single digits, cannibalised by the Brexit
Party. The prospect of Jeremy Corbyn, La
bour’s farleft leader, governing at the head
of an unwieldy coalition loomed.
What might follow seemed the stuff of
Tory nightmares: nationalisations and tax
raids; another referendum on Europe; per
haps one on Scottish independence, too.
Mr Johnson’s campaign slogan promised
nothing more than shortterm survival:
Deliver Brexit, Unite the country, Defeat
Corbyn. d.u.d.—perhaps not a perfect ac
ronym for an election campaign, Mr Johnson joked in his acceptance speech. But
easily improved with an e: “Dude! We are
going to energise the country.”
What he would give for some energy
now. A series of parties in Downing Street
during covid19 lockdowns has crippled
his premiership. He is being investigated
by the Metropolitan Police. Labour has en
joyed poll leads since early December that,
if replicated in a ballot tomorrow, would
see it becoming the largest party in a hung
parliament. Worse, polls show Mr Johnson
trailing Mr Corbyn’s successor, Sir Keir
Starmer, as the more capable prime minis
ter. It is the first time the Tories have been
behind on this metric since 2008 (see chart1 on next page). Mr Johnson has the worst
approval ratings since John Major in 1994,
according to polling from Ipsos.
Mr Johnson has sought to relaunch his
government with a small reshuffle. He
promises to tackle healthcare backlogs.
Tory mps are weighing whether to oust
him. Yet his party’s problems will persist
beyond the reboot. The disunity he prom
ised to banish in 2019 will confront any
successor. It is exhausted by 12 years in of
fice, rebellious and riven by factions.
The Conservative Party has always been
a broad coalition: from the landowners
and urban middle classes of the Victorian
era, to the wets, dries and “shits” (as some
dubbed its authoritarian wing) of Margaret
Thatcher’s. But these competing causes
and traditions were subordinated to the
task of running the country. “The Conser
vatives have always prided themselves on
being a party of government,” wrote An
drew Gamble, a political scientist, in “The
Conservative Nation” in 1974. Despite a Ba
bel of conflicting voices, the party “is re
nowned for its unity and cohesion, the ab
sence of factions in its ranks, and loyalty to
its leaders”. What he termed the “politics of
power”—running the state—took prece
dence over the “politics of support”—
pleasing the electorate.
Fifty years on the Conservative Party re
mains superb at winning elections. Mr
Johnson did indeed save it from catastro
phe: a new Brexit agreement was signed,Even if the Tories switched leader, they would struggle to govern effectively→Alsointhissection
27 Thefreepressv privacy rights
27 ThejoysofEssex
28 Evidence-freemedicine
29 Bagehot: State shrinkflation