Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics: Applied Econometrics

112 Metastatistics for the Non-Bayesian Regression Runner After writing down the problem this way, he then observed that if he w ...

John DiNardo 113 low sciences, there is a great deal of interest in “natural experiments.” Put another way, one wants to try to ...

114 Metastatistics for the Non-Bayesian Regression Runner The same is true for pairwise mutually exclusive events so, for exampl ...

John DiNardo 115 This too could form the basis of a theory of probability, but it is one we choose not to adopt because it seems ...

116 Metastatistics for the Non-Bayesian Regression Runner prototype for what we have in mind: HTHTHT...HT... In such an example, ...

John DiNardo 117 “collective” is beyond our scope, it is important to acknowledge that there can be “legitimate” disagreements a ...

118 Metastatistics for the Non-Bayesian Regression Runner As when we encountered Expected Utility, viewing probability as a devi ...

John DiNardo 119 Then there is the “conditional” version of the law of total probability: as before, let theAjbe mutually exclus ...

120 Metastatistics for the Non-Bayesian Regression Runner 3.4.7 Reasoning or estimating with Bayes’ rule? Not surprisingly, Baye ...

John DiNardo 121 0 5 10 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 θ α = 1, δ = 1 α = 0.5, δ = 0.5 α = 2, δ = 10 α =10, δ = 2 α = 15, δ = 15 α = 95, δ = 95 ...

122 Metastatistics for the Non-Bayesian Regression Runner 0 50 100 150 200 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 x Very informative prior Less informa ...

John DiNardo 123 0 5 10 Posterior Distribution 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 x 0 5 10 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 x Very informative prior Less informativ ...

124 Metastatistics for the Non-Bayesian Regression Runner to make a statement about apopulationfrom a “random sample”: Preamble ...

John DiNardo 125 First, let’s illustrate the problem. In experiment A, the question is: “How often would we expect to see 9 blac ...

126 Metastatistics for the Non-Bayesian Regression Runner There are several points to make about these “experiments” from a non- ...

John DiNardo 127 blood from an experimental rock. In many such cases, we will not be able to put any proposition to a “severe te ...

128 Metastatistics for the Non-Bayesian Regression Runner There exist many discussions of this problem. Our discussion follows S ...

John DiNardo 129 What the results of the experiment would do to a non-Bayesian’sbeliefsis a separate matter, but it is clear tha ...

130 Metastatistics for the Non-Bayesian Regression Runner The usual set-up begins with a “null hypothesis” and an “alternative h ...

John DiNardo 131 3.5.5 What should “tests” do? The previous discussion has attempted to be clear about why the “probabilities” o ...