Leaders 11B
y the timeit began,earlyona gloomygreymorningonFeb
ruary 24th, the onslaught against Ukraine ordered by Rus
sia’s president, Vladimir Putin, had acquired a sickening inev
itability. Yet nothing about this war was inevitable. It is a conflict
entirely of his own making. In the fighting and the misery that is
to come, much Ukrainian and Russian blood will be spilled. Ev
ery drop of it will be splattered on Mr Putin’s hands.
For months, while Mr Putin had remained in seclusion,
amassing roughly 190,000 Russian troops on the borders with
Ukraine, the question had been: what does this man want? Now
that it is clear he craves war, the question is: where will he stop?
To hear Mr Putin on the eve of the invasion, he would like the
world to believe that he will stop at nothing. In his battle speech,
recorded on February 21st and released as he unleashed the first
volleys of cruise missiles against his fellow Slavs, Russia’s presi
dent railed against “the empire of lies” that is the West. Crowing
over his nuclear arsenal, he pointedly threatened to “crush” any
country that stood in his way (see Briefing).
Early reports, some unconfirmed, only underlined the scale
of his ambition. There had been speculation that Russia’s presi
dent might be satisfied with control over Donetsk and Luhansk,
regions of eastern Ukraine containing small, Russianbacked
enclaves that were the object of lastminute diplomacy. But all
that has crumpled in the face of a vast assault.
The reports said that Russian land forces had
crossed from the east, heading for Kharkiv,
Ukraine’s second city; from the south, heading
from the Crimea towards Kherson; and from
Belarus to the north, heading for Kyiv, the capi
tal. It was unclear in what strength they were
moving. But Mr Putin seemingly covets all of
Ukraine, just as American and British intelli
gence reports had claimed all along. In acting, he has set aside
the everyday calculus of political risks and benefits. Instead he
is driven by the dangerous, delusional idea that he has an ap
pointment with history.
That is why, should Mr Putin seize a large swathe of Ukraine,
the gatherer of the lands will not stop to make peace at its bor
ders. He may not invade the natocountries that were once in
the Soviet empire, at least not at first. But, bloated by victory, he
will subject them to the cyber attacks and information warfare
that fall short of the threshold of conflict.
Mr Putin will threaten nato in this way, because he has come
to believe that nato threatens Russia and its people. Speaking
earlier this week, he raged at the alliance’s eastward expansion.
Later, he decried a fictitious “genocide” that he says the West is
sponsoring in Ukraine. Mr Putin can’t tell his people that his ar
my is fighting against their Ukrainian brothers and sisters who
gained freedom. So he is telling them that Russia is at war with
America, nato and its proxies.
The abominable truth is that Mr Putin has launched an un
provoked assault on the sovereign country next door. He is ob
sessed with the defensive alliance to its west. And he is tram
pling the principles that underpin peace in the 21st century. That
is why the world must inflict a heavy price for his aggression.Thisstartswithmassivepunitivesanctionsagainst Russia’s
financial system, its hightech industries and its moneyed elite.
Just before the invasion, when Russia recognised the two repub
lics, the West had imposed only modest sanctions. It must not
hesitate now. Even though Russia has set out to build a fortress
economy, the country is still connected to the world and, as the
initial 45% fall in Russia’s stockmarket suggests, it will suffer
(see Finance & economics section).
True, sanctions will harm the West, too. Oil prices soared
above $100 a barrel on the invasion. Russia is Europe’s main sup
plier of gas. It exports metals like nickel and palladium and
along with Ukraine it exports wheat. All of that will present pro
blems at a time when the world economy is struggling with in
flation and supplychain glitches. And yet, by the same measure,
the fact that the West is prepared to suffer for sanctions sends Mr
Putin the message that it cares about his transgressions.
A second task is to reinforce nato’s eastern flank. Until now,
the alliance has sought to live within the pact signed with Russia
in 1997, which limits nato operations in the former Soviet bloc.
nato should rip it up and use the freedoms that creates to garri
son troops in the east. That will take time. Meanwhile nato
should prove its unity and intent by immediately deploying its
40,000strong rapidreaction force to the frontline states. These
troops will add credibility to its doctrine that an
attack on one member is an attack on all. They
will also signal to Mr Putin that the further he
pushes in Ukraine, the more likely he is to end
up strengthening nato’s presence on its bor
der—the very opposite of what he intends.
And the world should help Ukraine defend
itself and its people. They will bear the burden
of the suffering. Only hours into the war came
the first reports of military and civilian deaths. Volodymyr Ze
lensky, the president, called on his compatriots to resist. They
must choose how and where to repel Mr Putin and his armies
and proxies, should he install a puppet government in Kyiv.
natois not about to deploy troops to Ukraine—rightly so, for
fear of a confrontation between nuclear powers. But its mem
bers should give Ukraine assistance by providing arms, money
and shelter to refugees and, if need be, a government in exile.
Some will say that it is too risky to challenge Mr Putin in these
ways—because he has lost touch with reality, or because he will
escalate, miscalculate or hug China. That would itself be a mis
calculation. After 22 years at the top, even a dictator with an
overdeveloped sense of his own destiny has a nose for survival
and the ebb and flow of power. Many Russians, unclear about a
crisis that has come from nowhere, may be unenthusiastic
about waging a deadly war against their brothers and sisters in
Ukraine. That is something the West can exploit.
Accommodating Mr Putin in the hope that he will start to be
have nicely would be more dangerous still. Even China should
see that a man who rampages across frontiers is a threat to the
stability it seeks. The freer Mr Putin is to advance today, the
more determined he will be to impose his vision tomorrow.And
the more blood will be spilled in finally getting him to stop.nRussia’s president has launched an assault on his neighbour. History will judge him harshlyWhere will he stop?