In China’s view, occupations of Spratly islands by other countries
constitute provocative attempts to encroach on Chinese territory.
Given the humiliation of previous loss of territory to European powers
and Japan, not to mention Taiwan, this is a highly sensitive issue with
domestic political implications. Arguably, therefore, China’s response
has been measured and restrained. It has asserted its rights by estab-
lishing a presence only on unoccupied reefs, and has not attempted to
seize any island or reef from another claimant by force. This restraint
has been designed to preserve a peaceful regional environment for eco-
nomic development, but only by shelving the sovereignty question.
With respect to sovereignty, Beijing’s restraint can be interpreted in
two ways: either as establishing a basis of trust on which to negotiate a
settlement of rival claims; or as a temporary strategem to buy time for
China to pursue its military modernisation program, with a view to
seizing the remaining islands from a position of strength once it is in a
position to do so.
As China has shown no inclination to pursue the former path,
ASEAN countries fear the latter. How likely is this? Here several
factors must be considered. The first set is internal and political,
including inter-service rivalry in the People’s Liberation Armed Forces
(the Navy would have a stronger voice if it were responsible for
capturing and defending the Spratlys), and inter-factional differences
within the CCP (which might lead one to play the nationalist card).
China is increasingly turning to nationalism to fill the ideological
vacuum left as communism becomes irrelevant, and that is a worry for
the region. Increasing population and environmental degradation may
also impact on China’s Spratly policy. Beijing needs new energy
resources if it is to raise living standards and expand the economy.
Then there are external factors. These include unilateral moves by
claimant states to exploit resources that the Chinese believe are right-
fully theirs, or direct interference by a major power (the US, or
possibly Japan). In the meantime, the major factor preserving the
status quo remains the American military presence.
A Short History of China and Southeast Asia