line state is transferred to an expanded ASEAN in conflict with
China, this would presumably commit ASEAN to the defence of
Vietnam, Laos and Burma. It is unlikely, however, that ASEAN would,
or could, respond to a threat from China to any of these three coun-
tries, yet failure to act would place both ASEAN’s credibility and
solidarity in question. The second point is that the consensus approach
of ASEAN presents both a weakness and a strength in dealing with
any crisis involving China. Though consensus for a concerted policy
would make it more compelling, this will always be more difficult to
achieve with ten than with six members. Consensus would confront
China with a unified response that could severely embarrass Beijing,
but China could exploit differences within ASEAN to divide members
and prevent consensus. In an extreme situation, ASEAN could even
disintegrate.
A common criticism of ASEAN is that it has failed to develop
the institutional basis for a unified regional grouping of states, in the
way that the European Union has. Nor is there any organisation to
promote ASEAN security, apart from the amorphous ASEAN
Regional Forum. Some of this, usually Western, criticism carries with
it an edge of irritation: why can’t Southeast Asians be more like Euro-
peans? But there are good reasons for the ASEAN approach. How to
accommodate the growing power of China will be the most important
challenge ASEAN will face into the new millennium. ‘Accommo-
dation’ is the key word, for given the strategic vulnerability and very
different international relations cultures of the mainland Southeast
Asian states, any attempt to contain, or even ‘constrain’, China would
almost certainly divide ASEAN.
The ASEAN ten will do all in their power not to provoke China.
What they want is to both slow and ease the changing power balance.
They want the United States to remain a powerful presence, serving as
a balancing force in the regional power equation, and have made this
known; but they do not want to be part of any balance-of-power coali-
tion. At the same time, they also want to make room for China. No
Future directions