The Economist - USA (2022-03-12)

The Economist March 12th 2022 BriefingThewarinUkraine 17

cept horrendous casualties, replace them,
and deny the public information about
them,” says Mr Reese. “Putin cannot do any
of these.” On March 9th the government’s
admission that, contrary to previous deni-
als, conscripts had been sent to Ukraine
looked likely to stoke new anger, despite
promises that the people who had “mistak-
enly” sent them would be punished.
Russians of military age had relatively
little attachment to the country even be-
fore the war: 43% of Russians between the
ages of 18 and 24 said they wanted to leave
the country for good. Now they are desper-
ately googling ways out. And some are
protesting against the war, despite the in-
creasing danger of doing so.
The anti-war rallies held on March 6th
led to 5,000 detentions, half of them in
Moscow. That was double the number de-
tained the previous Sunday, not because
there were more protesters, but because
there were several times more police. “It
felt as if thousands and thousands of
troops were brought to Moscow,” one wit-
ness said. “They were everywhere.” Rus-
sianuniversitiesareexpellingstudentsin-
volvedintheprotests.Policeandsecurity
servicesarerandomlysto g peopleon
thestreetsandinthemet checktheir
smartphonesandreadthe ssages.
Perhapsmoreworryin r Putinare
largerprotests in neigh ng Belarus.
FranakViacorka,theright-handmanfor
SvetlanaTikhanovskaya,whowouldprob-
ablyhavewonthecountry’spresidential
electionin 2020 hadthecountbeenfair,

saysthatonMarch6thBelarussawthebig-

gestprotestsincethatelection.Alexander

Lukashenko,thedictatorwho stoleitto

prolonghisstayinpower,islookingdis-

tinctlyshaky.

HavingplayedhosttoRussianforceson

theirwaytoKyiv,MrLukashenkowassup-

posedtosendhisownsoldiersintobattle

behindthem.Hehasnotdoneso,andis

nowpledgingthatthetroopswillstayat

home—notoutofloveforUkrainebutout

offearthatiforderedsouththeymight

turnagainsthim,orrun.Henolongerin-

sultsMrZelenskyontelevision.

Hell,bywayofbadintentions

MrPutinhasnotproppedMrLukashenko

upjustbecause,aswithBasharal-Assadin

Syria,hehatestoseea murderoustyrant

fall.AnendtoMrLukashenko’sregimeat

anytimeinthepastfewyearswouldhave

invigoratedRussia’soppositionunaccept-

ably.Incurrentcircumstancesitwouldal-

sodelightUkrainewhilemakingRussian

forcesaroundKyivhardertosupport.

EvenifMrLukashenkostaysinpower,

MrPutin’spositionisbad.A victoryinUk-

raine that sees its government collapse

mightatleastbringthecostofthewartoan

end,butitwoulddolittleelsetohelpthe

economy.

Intheabsenceofsuchvictoryhecould

insteadsimplyescalatetheviolence,per-

hapsusingweaponsofmassdestruction

andblaminghisenemiesasa pretextfor

evergreatercarnage.Atsomepointcom-

mandersinthefield,movedeitherbyhu-

manityorfearoftheInternationalCrimi-

nalCourt,mightrebel.ButRussiadoesnot

havemuchhistoryofmilitaryrebellions.

AlternativelyMrPutinmightpullback

andpretendthathehaswon.Hehaspre-

paredthegroundforsucha manoeuvreby

separatingthecountry’smythicalandface-

lessNaziantagonistsfromtheUkrainian

armedforces,whomhepresentsasvictims

ofWesterngovernmentsratherthanper-

petrators.Sucha manoeuvremayseemim-

plausible;butsodidgoingtowarinthe

firstplace.Andappealingasitmightbe,

likealltheotheroptionssaveacoupit

wouldbebadforRussiawithoutproviding

stabilitybeyondit.Atbay,MrPutinwould

still be dangerous both to the outside

worldandathome,wherehewouldinflict

more deadlyrepressions ashe battened

downthehatches.

NovayaGazeta, theonlyprominentin-

dependentnewspaperleftinthecountry,

isnotabletoreportonthewar,butisstill

reportingontheoutrageswhichgoalong

withit:“Militarycensorshipdoesnotex-

tendtothefactthatthewarisgoingonin-

side [Russia],”its editorial board wrote

withcourage.Itrecentlypublisheda tran-

scriptofabusedirectedata n wom-

anbeingbeatenandsexually liatedin

a custodycell:“Fuckingfreak t doyou

thinkwe'regoingtogetfort utintold

ustofuckingkillthem.Tha Putinis

onourside!You’retheenemiesofRussia,

you’retheenemiesofthepeople.We'llalso

geta bonusforthis.”Thereisnooutcome

inUkrainewhichwillstopsuchthings.n

OnMarch7thAmericabannedoilimports

fromRussia;theeu, a muchbigger

customer,wasdividedaboutwhether

tofollowsuit.A muchdiscussedplan

toprovideUkrainewithPolishfighter

aircraftcametonothing.

Russian crude petroleum exports, 2019, $bn

Other OECD



China



European Union



Oth.



US



External support

EstimatedUkrainiancivilian casualties at
March 8th. Source: OHCHR

1,