The Economist - USA (2022-03-12)

16 BriefingThewarinUkraine TheEconomistMarch12th 2022

benefitstobe accruedfromrallyingthe

peoplearounda wartimeflag.

He may be particularly weakened in

someoftheregions.TherulingeliteinTa­

tarstan,Russia’slargestMuslimrepublic,

forexample,isdeeplyinvestedineconom­

ictieswiththeoutsideworldthathave

nowbeentornasunder.InNovokuznetsk,

a Siberiancoal­miningcity,angrycitizens

yelledatthelocalgovernor,SergeiTsivi­

lyov,thattheauthoritieswere usingyoung

menas“cannonfodder”.

Mr Tsivilyov responded gamely that

“Whilea militaryoperationisinprocess,

oneshouldn'tcometoanyconclusions.”

Butthereisa limittothelengthoftime

that an economy­crippling war can be

treatedasa technicalitytobeenduredwith

patience.OnMarch9th thegovernment

seemedtostarttakingthatin,withnew

talkofeconomiccostsandthebroadna­

tureofthestruggle.Thereare,it seems,Na­

zistofightbeyondUkraine.

Rocksandhardplaces

HowwellRussiawouldfareagainstsuch

foes,weretheyreal,ishardtosay.Thepoor

performanceofthearmyandairforcein

Ukrainehasshowna surprising—tosome,

astonishing—lackofoperationalacumen.

Joint operations have sputtered, equip­

menthasperformedpoorly,logisticsand

resupplyunitshavefailedtokeepupwith

combatforces. Atleastthreeseniorcom­

mandershavebeenkilledbecause,frus­

tratedbytheslowpaceofprogress,they

wenttothefrontandintoharm'sway.

ButgrindingandmudboundasRussia’s

advancemaybe,anadvanceitis.AlexVer­

shinin,a recentlyretiredusArmyofficer

whohasstudiedRussianlogistics,saysthe

commanders may have stretched their

supplylinestobreaking­pointintheiref­

forttoadvanceinthenorthandsouth,but

that“theyareexactlywheretheyaremeant

to be.”Others, while agreeing that pro­

gress,ifslow,hasbeenrealandseriousas

wellasdestructive,arelesssanguineabout

itsfutureprospects.

MichaelKofmanofcna, a think­tank,

says thatRussia ismaking “steady pro­

gress”towardsitsmilitaryobjectivesbut

attrition,logisticalproblems,andmorale

couldleaveit “combatineffective”withina

fewweeks.Itwouldnotbedefeated;butit

wouldbeforcedtopauseitsoperations.

ChristopherDougherty,a formerPentagon

officialnowatcnas, anotherthink­tank,

reckonsthattheinvasionhas“culminat­

ed”—staff­college­speakforrunningoutof

steam—andthattheremaynowbea 30­

40%chanceofa settlementinwhichRus­

sianforceswithdrawfromUkraineandits

president,VolodymyrZelensky,remainsin

office.Thosearefarbetteroddsthanany­

onewouldhaveofferedwhentheinvasion

began.AndeverydayUkrainekeepsfight­

ing,MrPutinloses.

ThesiegeofKyiv,ifittranspires,will

probablyshowwhoisright.Despitethe

muchdiscussedimmobilityofa hugecon­

voytoitsnorth­west,thecitycentre,acces­

sibleonlyfromthesouthandsouth­east,is

increasinglycutoff.TheInstituteforthe

StudyofWar,a think­tan s thatRus­

sianforcesarebeingconc tedinsub­

urbstothewest(Irpin)an t (Brovary)

withinrocket­artilleryran hecentre.

The Instituteseesthisaspreparation

foranassaultinthecomingdays.Butital­

soseesindicationsthatRussiaisstrug­

gling to puttogetherthe combatpower

suchanattackrequires.Oneredflagisthat

elements of the Rosgvardia (national

guard),ChechenfightersloyaltoRamzan

Kadyrov,theheadoftheChechenrepublic,

andtroopsfromWagnerGroup,a Kremlin­

linkedmercenaryoutfit,areallgathering

around the city, presumably to supple­

menttheregulararmy.

Again,Stalin’s ruleoffersaparallel—

thistimethe“Winterwar”foughtagainst

Finlandin1939­40.Russia’scampaignbe­

ganwithwildlyoptimisticassumptionsin

Moscow,poorplanning,disastroustactics

andhigh casualties.And Stalin did not

conquerFinland,ashewanted,sothewar

isoftencitedasanexampleofa pluckyun­

derdogholding off alargerinvader.But

after theirdodgy starttheSoviet forces

paused,regroupedandwentontoover­

powertheFinnswithsheernumbersand

firepower.Thecountrywasforcedtohand

overterritoryandagreedtoconstraintson

itsforeignpolicy.

YettheWinterwarishardlya perfect

analogy,notesRogerReese,a historianat

Texasa&mUniversity.Stalin’sarmywasfar

largerthanMrPutin’s,anditdidnothave

toreckonwithurbanwarfare.Italsoen­

joyedsupportathome.“Stalincouldac­

Source:UNHCR

Crimea

Russia

,

Belarus



Romania

,

Moldova

,

Slovakia

,

Hungary

,

OtherEuropean

countries

,

Poland

,,

UKRAINE

200 km

ArrivalsfromUkraine,Feb

thtoMarth



ByMarch9th2.3mUkrainianshadleft

thecountry,accordingtotheunRefugee

Agency.Butattemptstoarrangefree

passageforciviliansinencircledand

bombardedUkrainiancitiesoverthe

courseoftheweekmostlyfailed.

Thearmyand civil-defence forces kept

uptheirresistance to Russian advances.

Thepresident, Volodymyr Zelensky,

continuedto inspire the country as he

chastisedthe West for not imposing a

no-flyzone in its skies.

The flow of refugees Ukraine’s morale

Departures from Ukraine, Mar 2022

200,

100,

0

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