The Economist - USA (2022-03-12)

30 The Americas TheEconomistMarch12th 2022

than  to  rile  them  up.  He  posts  poetry,  is

frank about his obsessive­compulsive dis­

order  and  gushes  about  his  caramel­col­

oured  rescue  dog,  Brownie,  which  has

389,000 followers on Instagram.

He is distinctive in other ways. Whereas

old­fashioned  leftists  defend  dictators

who  claim  to  oppose  American  imperial­

ism, Chile’s president­elect is a full­throat­

ed  fan  of  democracy.  He  condemned  the

invasion of Ukraine and criticises human­

rights abuses by Latin America’s three left­

ist  dictatorships:  Cuba,  Nicaragua  and

Venezuela. He has invited to his inaugura­

tion  writers  forced  into  exile  by  Nicara­

gua’s despot, Daniel Ortega. 

Mr Petro may join Mr Boric as a rare crit­

ic of such strongmen. Until recently a fan

of Chávez, he now scolds his successor, Ni­

colás  Maduro,  especially  for  his  depen­

dence on fossil fuels, and accuses Mr Orte­

ga of turning “a dream of liberation into a

banana dictatorship”. 

But several elected leftists defend auto­

crats  as  long  as  they  are  anti­American.

The  governments  of  Argentina  and  Peru

were among the 94 that sponsored a reso­

lution  at  the  unGeneral  Assembly  con­

demning the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

But  Mr  Fernández,  Argentina’s  president,

visited  Vladimir  Putin  in  Moscow  last

month offering to be “the entry point” for

Russia in Latin America. 

Mexico’s  government  has  tried  to  have

its  tortilla  and  eat  it:  Marcelo  Ebrard,  the

foreign  minister,  condemned  the  inva­

sion.  But  Andrés  Manuel  López  Obrador,

the populist president, who is often known

as  amlo,  said  blandly  that  he  wanted  to

keep good relations with all countries and

criticised the “censorship” of Russian state

media  by  social  networks  in  the  West.  He

praises Cuba as “an example of resistance”

but has criticised repression in Nicaragua.

Lula refuses to denounce the tyrants. 

Some leaders of the last pink tide were

themselves aspiring dictators. Mr Morales

in  Bolivia  and  Mr  Correa  in  Ecuador  fol­

lowed Chávez’s example in using new con­

stitutions  to  take  over  the  judiciary  and

other independent institutions. The newer

presidents  tend  to  chip  away  at,  rather

than sweep away, the separation of powers.

amlo has  given  more  duties  to  the  army,

which  he  controls.  He  has  placed  cronies

in  regulatory  bodies  and  slashed  the  bud­

get of the independent electoral authority.

But he remains constrained by Mexico’s ju­

diciary and his parliamentary majority was

reduced in a mid­term election last year. 

Peru’s Mr Castillo, who stood on a hard­

left  platform,  stirred  fears  that  he  is  plot­

ting a Chávez­like power grab by calling for

a constituent assembly to rewrite the con­

stitution. But he is too weak to succeed. His

supporters,  faction­ridden  themselves,

have  only  44  of  the  130  seats  in  Congress,

which  repeatedly  threatens  to  impeach

him.MrPetrohasdroppedhiscallfora

constituentassemblybutwouldseekde­

creepowerstodealwithColombia’secon­

omy. The risks ofsuchoverreach seem

smaller with Lula. As Brazil’s president

from 2003 to 2010 hewasgenerallyrespect­

fulofindependentinstitutions.

InChilethemainworryisthata consti­

tutionalconventionelectedinMay2021,in

whichthefar­lefthasa largepresence,may

notbeasliberalastheincomingpresident.

Amongitsearlyproposalsaretheabolition

oftheSenate,whichissplitequallybe­

tweenalliesofthenewgovernmentand

theopposition,andcurbsonfreespeech.

Today’s left­wing governments face

tougher economic times than did their

predecessors,whichwerehelpedbya com­

modityboom.Althoughcommodityprices

haverisen,especiallyinrecentdays,the

bonanza maybe smaller. Thepandemic

hasincreaseddemandsforsocialspending

and,withinterestratesrising,publicdebt

willbemoreexpensivetoservice.

Thismeansthereislikelytobelessstat­

ismandmorepragmatismthaninthepre­

viouspinktide.Mostleftistleadersarein

favour offiscalresponsibility andinde­

pendentcentralbanks.Lula,whowaseco­

nomicallyprudentduringhispresidency,

appearspoisedtopickashisrunningmate

GeraldoAlckmin,a formergovernorofSão

Paulowhoisclosetotheprivatesector.

Butpragmatism is notuniversal. Mr

Castillo,whoremainsanenigmaaftersev­

enmonthsinoffice,announcedthe“na­

tionalisation”ofa gasfield.Butthatpro­

posalwasstillbornpartlybecauseofoppo­

sitionwithinhisgovernment.Debt­ridden

Argentinaremainsdefiantlyunorthodox:

it has increased untargeted energy and

transport subsidies. amlo’s government

spentlessthanalmosteveryotherinthe

regionasa shareofgdptofighttheeffects

ofthepandemic.Butithaspouredmoney

intoPemex,thestate­ownedoilfirm,and

istryingtochangetheconstitutiontope­

naliseprivateinvestorsinenergy.

Thirty­twoyearsyoungerthanamlo,

MrBorichasmorefashionableviewson

everythingfromtheeconomytosocialis­

sues,thoughheretainssomethingofthe

oldleft’sscepticismoftheprivatesector.

HewantstomakeChilemoresocialdemo­

cratic,withuniversalfreehealthcare and

biggerpublicpensions,andplanstofor­

givestudentdebt.Hechampionsa “green

transition”,whichwouldphaseoutcoal,

andplanstosetupa statefirmtominelith­

ium, used in electric­car batteries. He

backsfeminism,abortionandgayrights.

Theonlyotherleaderwhocomescloseto

hissocialliberalismisArgentina’sPresi­

dentFernández,whosecureda lawtoal­

lowabortionin2020.

Otherleftistsaremoreconservativeon

socialissuesand,inmostcases,moreret­

rogradeonenvironmentalones.MrPetro

hasbeenguardedinhisreactiontoa deci­

sion by Colombia’s constitutional court

lastmonthtoallowabortionondemandin

thefirst 24 weeksofpregnancy.Lulaiscau­

tiousaboutabortion,too,sincehefears

losingthevotesofevangelicalProtestants,

whomakeupalmosta thirdofBrazil’selec­

torate.ThePeruvianandMexicanleaders

havebothangeredfeminists.MrCastillo

appointedtohiscabinetmenaccusedof

beatingwomen(thoughhesackedthem

afterapublicoutcry).amlohasclaimed

thatprotestsagainstfemicideswerestaged

byhisopponents.

LuisArce,MrMorales’ssuccessorinBo­

livia,sharesamlo’senthusiasmforfossil

fuels,andsoprobablywouldLula,though

hewouldendeavourtoslowthedespolia­

tionoftheAmazonrainforestthathastak­

enplaceunderBrazil’srightistpresident,

JairBolsonaro.AttheotherextremeisMr

Petro,whowantsColombiatoceasetoin­

vestinitsoilandcoalindustries,whichbe­

tweenthemprovidehalfofitsexports.He

has suggested that coffee and tourism

couldreplacethem,butthatseemsunlike­

lyfora longtime.

Despitetheirdifferences,thereisa lot

offellow­feelingamongthenewleftists.

amlotalksofa MexicoCity­BuenosAires

axis.MrBorichassaidhehopestowork

closelywithMrArce,LulaandMrPetro.

ThemostsignificantofthemcouldbeLula,

ifhewins,becauseofhisexperienceand

theweightofBrazil.Whileeachleft­led

countryhasitsownways,“IthinkLulawill

besomesortofequilibrium”amongthem,

says Celso Amorim, his former foreign

minister.Butfornow,alleyeswillbeon

theboyishMrBoric.n

URUGUAY

ARGENTINA

CHILE

PA R AG U AY

ECUADOR

HONDURAS

COSTA RICA*

NICARAGUA

MEXICO

BRAZIL

SURINAME

GUYANA

BOLIVIA

PERU

COLOMBIA

CUBA

VENEZUELA

Government ideology, March 2022

Notleftist Notincluded

Electedleftist leaders

Leftistsleadinginthepolls(forelections this year)

Leftist dictatorship

*Centrist leading in polls for April run-o election

Source: The Economist