The Economist - USA (2022-03-12)

36 China TheEconomistMarch12th 2022

Aswell ascutting taxes,thegovern­

mentwillincreasespending,broadlymea­

sured,by12.8%.Itwillembarkonsomeof

the 102 “mega­projects” outlined in the

five­yearplan,whichcanbeunpacked,like

a “matryoshkadoll”,intoover2,600small­

er projects,according to He Lifeng,the

headofChina’splanningagency.Itwillal­

sospendmoreonunglamorousbutneces­

sarysocialinfrastructure,suchasday­care

centres.About9.8trnyuanwillbetrans­

ferredtocash­strappedlocalgovernments,

18%morethanlastyear.Theywillneedall

thehelptheycangettocopewithChina’s

propertydownturn, which hasdeprived

themofrevenuefromlandsales.

A bigfiscalpushwillbenecessaryif the

economy is to fulfil the government’s

growthtargetof“around5.5%”.Thatpace

ofgrowthwouldsetthestagenicelyfor

PresidentXiJinping’sconfirmationfora

thirdtermaspartychieflateintheyear.It

is,however,higherthanmanyprivate­sec­

torforecasts(seechart).Anexpansionary

budgetisalsohardtosquarewithMrLi’s

insistenceonfiscalprudence.Hesaidthe

budgetdeficitthisyearwouldnarrowto

only2.8%ofgdp, from3.2%lastyear.

Thatnumberis,however,misleading.

Muchofthisyear’s additional spending

willbeundertakenbygovernment“funds”

thatarenotincludedintheheadlinebud­

getfigures.Localgovernmentswillalsotap

moneyraisedin 2021 thatwasnotspentbe­

foretheyear’send.Andstatecofferswill

benefitfrom1.65trnyuanof“surpluspro­

fits”handedoverbystate­ownedfinancial

institutionsandstatemonopolies,suchas

ChinaTobacco,whichhavenotpaiddivi­

dendstothegovernmentsincethepan­

demicstruck.(WeiHeofGavekalDrago­

nomics,a consultancyinBeijing,callsita

“specialfiscaloperation”.)Thelargestcon­

tributortothiswindfallisthecentralbank,

which will transfer to the government

about1trnyuanofprofitsithasearnedon

itsforeign­exchangereserves.Asanother

rapperonceputit,“Moneytreesistheper­

fectplaceforshade.”n

A tad optimistic

China, GDP growth forecasts, 2022*

Number of analysts

Source:Bloomberg

15

12

9

6

3

0

GDP, 2022 forecast,

% increase on a year earlier

4.54.3 5 5.5 5.9

Government

target:

~.%

*Forecasts made

Feb 24th-Mar 3rd 222

SupportforUkraine

Brave voices

I

t isimpossibletoacquirea massfollow­

ing  on  Weibo,  China’s  Twitter­like  ser­

vice,  while  being  politically  careless.  A

post  that  annoys  the  government  can  re­

sult  in  an  account’s  sudden  closure  and

with it painful severance from millions of

fans.  Take  Jin  Xing,  a  transgender  dancer

who was once a colonel in an army enter­

tainment troupe. She had been keeping her

page  updated  with  news  of  her  travels  in

Europe when she took a risk that plunged

her into digital darkness. 

On March 1st Ms Jin published a post on

Weibo that referred to two of the platform’s

hottest topics: Vladimir Putin’s invasion of

Ukraine and the story of a woman in east­

ern China who had been sold into marriage

and  was  found  in  chains  in  a  shed.  “The

most horrifying things of 2022 have been a

Chinese woman with an iron chain around

her  neck  saying  this  world  doesn’t  want

me,” Ms Jin wrote to her more than 13m fol­

lowers.  “The  other  is  a  Russian  madman

saying if you don’t want me to continue as

president, I don’t want this world.” 

Ms  Jin’s  post  was  quickly  deleted.  She

sent another saying Weibo had removed it.

That was her last. Her account now carries

a  message  at  the  top:  “For  violating  rele­

vant laws and regulations, this user is now

in a state of being forbidden to speak.” But

comments are still possible. Netizens have

dived into a post showing a picture of her

German mother­in­law’s home. Some have

expressed  support  for  Ms  Jin.  “Brave  per­

son,” said one. Others have hurled insults,

laced with transphobia. 

In online debate in China about the war,

by far the most common voices are of anti­

Western backers of Mr Putin (contempt for

the  West  is  rife  in  China’s  offline  world,

too). Their cheers for Russia are amplified

by  censors  whose  eagle  eyes  and  algo­

rithms  help  to  suppress  other  views.  On

politically  sensitive  topics,  many  dissent­

ers do not even try to speak, fearful of being

kicked off social media, vilified by trolls or

confronted (in person) by the police.

But  some  supporters  of  Ukraine  have

piped  up.  Freeweibo,  a  website  outside

China  that  automatically  publishes  cen­

sored posts from selected Weibo accounts,

shows  that  some  users  with  many  thou­

sands  of  followers  have  posted  pro­Uk­

raine  messages.  Five  academics—one  in

Hong  Kong  and  the  others  from  presti­

gious  mainland  universities—published

an open letter on WeChat, a messaging ser­

vice,  denouncing  the  invasion.  “Ukraine’s

wounds  have  hurt  us  deeply,”  they  wrote.

The  trolls  fired  back,  calling  them  “trai­

tors”  and  America’s  “running  dogs”.  Cen­

sors swiftly deleted the letter. 

Some  anti­Russia  posts  dig  at  the  na­

tionalists  by  reminding  them  of  land  that

was wrested from Chinese control by Rus­

sia in the 19th century, and to which China

has  not  pursued  claims.  The  territory  in­

cludes the city of Vladivostok. “A bunch of

people  spread  information  about  the  his­

tory of Ukraine,” wrote one user on Weibo.

“But if you try searching for Vladivostok on

Weibo you can’t find much of anything.” 

The government stops short of echoing

the  nationalists’  full­throated  support  of

the invasion. But at a press conference on

March 7th, China’s foreign minister, Wang

Yi, said his country’s ties with Russia were

“rock solid”. In a clear reference to America

and nato, he accused a “major country” of

stoking “bloc confrontation”.

Most netizens brimmed with delight at

his  eloquence  (and  praised  his  “hand­

some”  appearance—Mr  Wang  is  popular

among “little pinks”, as young nationalists

are commonly called in China). But among

more  than  2,000  comments  on  the  event

that were posted on state television’s Wei­

bo account, there wasbarely a mention of

Ukraine. That, no doubt,isjust as the gov­

ernment would likeit.n

Despite abuse from fellow netizens,

some Chinese dare to criticise Russia

Covid-19

Redefining zero

N

ot sincethe early days of the pandem­

ic has China seen so many new, locally

transmitted  cases  of  covid­19.  More  than

400 were reported on March 9th (counting

only  those  that  were  symptomatic).  Clus­

ters  have  been  found  in  most  of  China’s

provinces (see map on next page). A surge

of  this  size  would  not  trouble  most  coun­

tries.  Indeed,  many  are  learning  to  live

with the virus. But in China the new cases

are  testing  the  government’s  “zero­covid”

strategy, which uses mass testing and lock­

downs to crush any hint of an outbreak.

Many  foreign  experts  are  questioning

the strategy. Can it work, they ask, against

the highly transmissible Omicron variant?

Michael Osterholm, an American epidemi­

ologist, calls Omicron unstoppable. In Jan­

China’s scientists are looking for a way

out of the zero-covid policy

We’re hiring: The Economistis looking for a data

journalist with strong coding skills and proficiency in

Mandarin. This is a full-time position with a focus on

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