The Economist - USA (2022-03-12)

The Economist March 12th 2022 MiddleEast&Africa 41

57% of the inflation index.

The few African countries that produce

oil,  such  as  Nigeria  and  Angola,  stand  to

benefit.  However,  even  they  may  do  less

well than hoped. Both countries subsidise

petrol for consumers. Fuel subsidies could

now  cost  the  governments  of  Angola  and

Nigeria the equivalent of about 2% of gdp,

up  from  an  expected  1.4%  in  Angola  and

0.8% last year in Nigeria.

Better news may come only in the me­

dium term. Europe is on a desperate hunt

for non­Russian oil and gas. Algeria, which

has pipelines to Spain and Italy, is looking

to take advantage. Other African producers

hope to cash in by shipping more liquefied

natural  gas.  The  big  prize  would  be  Euro­

pean  support  for  one  of  two  mooted  gas

pipelines thatcould link Nigeria to Moroc­

co and go on to Europe, or Nigeria to Alge­

ria through the Sahara.

For  years  Arab  autocrats  have  sought

closertieswithRussia.WhereasAmerica

lecturedthemabouthumanrights,MrPu­

tinurgedstrongmentobestrong.Whenhe

visitedCairoin2015,forthefirsttimeina

decade,hegavea KalashnikovtoMrSisi,

whointurntreatedhimtodinnerata res­

taurantoverlookingtheNile(withplenty

ofbreadonoffer).Nowthosesameauto­

cratsfacebrokenbudgetsandangryciti­

zens—courtesyofMrPutin.n

RelationswithRussia

Nostalgia and

Kalashnikovs

I

n 2019 vladimir putinwelcomed 43 Af­

rican leaders to the inaugural Russia­Af­

rica summit, a higher turnout than Britain

or  France  attracted  to  similar  shindigs.  At

the  bash  in  Sochi  the  Russian  president

lambasted  the  West  for  how  it  imposed

“political  or  other  conditions”  on  African

countries, a reference to chiding about hu­

man  rights.  “We  have  a  lot  to  offer  to  our

African friends,” said Mr Putin. 

The  summit  stressed  Russia’s  increas­

ingly  muscular  approach  to  Africa.  After

Russia  annexed  Crimea  in  2014  and  the

West imposed sanctions, it boosted efforts

to sell arms, extract resources and prop up

shaky  regimes.  Now  that  Russia  is  suffer­

ing  far  more  sweeping  sanctions,  it  may

wish to redouble its activities on the conti­

nent. But do African governments think it

still has enough to offer? 

The vote on March 2nd at the unGener­

al Assembly to condemn Russia’s invasion

of  Ukraine  suggests  many  are  hedging

their  bets.  Of  the  54  African  countries,  28

backed themotionbut 17 abstained and

eightwereno­shows.Eritrea,a gulagstate,

joined Russia,Belarus,NorthKoreaand

Syriainvotingagainst.

Whether thesevotes reflect ordinary

Africans’viewsisunclear.Mobile­phone

surveyscarriedoutlastweekinsixAfrican

states for The Economist by Premise, an

Americanresearchfirm,suggestthatgov­

ernments’ambivalenceisreflectedinpub­

licattitudes(seechart).InKenya,Nigeria,

SouthAfricaandUgandapluralitiesheld

Russiamostresponsibleforthewar.Butin

MaliandtheIvoryCoast,natowasmost

oftencitedastheguiltyparty.

Thevotesattheunpartlyreflecthis­

toricaltiesbetweenRussiaandrulingpar­

ties,especiallyinsouthernAfrica.Manyof

theregion’selitestudiedintheSovietUn­

ion;some have fondmemoriesof their

timethere.Theliberationpartiesthatstill

runAngola,Mozambique(whoseflagfea­

turesa Kalashnikov),Namibia,SouthAfri­

caandZimbabwesawtheSovietUnionas

anallyintheirfighttoendwhiterule,and

considerRussiatobeitssuccessor.Allab­

stained,eventhoughUkrainewaspartof

theSovietUnion,too.

Thisnostalgiagoeshand­in­handwith

latentanti­Westernviews.MurithiMutiga

ofInternationalCrisisGroup,a Brussels­

basedthink­tank,notes“resentment”in

theHornat“thewaytheusbehavedinits

unipolarmoment”.nato’sinterventionin

Libyain2011,whichignoredtheAfrican

Union,angeredleaderslikeYoweriMuse­

veniofUganda(another abstainer). The

subsequentchaos,whichspilledoverinto

theSahel,alienatedgovernmentsthere.

ButAfrica’s relationswithRussiaare

mainlyaboutself­interest,nothistoryor

ideology.Thisisacutelysoforcountries

thatrelyonmercenariesfromtheWagner

Group,whichisbackedbyYevgenyPrigoz­

hin,a chumofMrPutin.Thereareanesti­

mated2,000WagnertroopsintheCentral

AfricanRepublic(car) keepingrebelsfrom

toppling President Faustin­Archange

Touadéra,reportedlyinexchangeforgold

anddiamonds. He is toodependent on

themtochangetack.

ThejuntainchargeofMalisincea coup

lastyearhasalsoturnedtoWagner.About

800 guns­for­hireoperatethere,saysEm­

manuelMacron,France’spresident,whois

withdrawingFrenchforcespartlybecause

oftheRussianarrivistes.Europeanatten­

tiontotheSahelwillfurtherdiminishbe­

causeofthewarinUkraine,reckonsPaul

StronskioftheCarnegieEndowmentfor

International Peace, anotherthink­tank,

leavinga “relativelyopendoor”forWag­

ner.HeaddsthatRussiawillseethebattle

forinfluenceintheSahelaspartofa wider

contestagainstWesternenemies—anecho

ofproxyconflictsduringtheColdWar.

Guinea is another African country

unusuallydependentonRussia.Itisalrea­

dya “collateralvictim”ofthewar,laments

A DDIS ABABA, DUBAI, JOHANNESBURG AND PARIS

Why Russia wins a degree of sympathy

in Africa and the Middle East

Mali’sunflaggingardour

Polling on Putin

“Do you approve/disapprove of Russia’s actions

in Ukraine?”, % responding, March 7th 2022

Source:

Premise

Approve

South Africa

Kenya

Nigeria

Uganda

Ivory Coast

Mali

100806040200

Strongly/somewhat Somewhat/strongly

Abstained from UN vote to condemn

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Disapprove

Neither