The Economist - USA (2022-03-12)

42 Middle East & Africa The Economist March 12th 2022

L

oungingoncushionsintheprowof

a sturdywoodendhowasit glidesin

totalsilencethroughthemangrove­

edgedcreeksoppositetheislandofLa­

mu,thespoiltWesternvisitor,freedfrom

twoyearsofcovid­19restraints,islulled

intothinkingheisinparadise.

Thebreezeisbalmy.Theseaistur­

quoise.A blood­orangesunslipsunder

theequatorialhorizon.Thesailorsatthe

helmaremuscularandfriendly,deftly

handlingtheslantingtriangularsailsas

theirforebearshavedoneforthepast

thousandyears.Itistimeforthemto

proffera cocktailfromtheice­box

stowedbelow.

Lamuhasservedasa havenforty­

coonsandbackpackersalikefordecades,

butneverhasit beensoeagerlyvisitedas

inthepasttwoyearsofglobalplague.

Somehowtheweboftravelcurbshas

beenwidelycircumvented.Localairlines

andprivateplaneshaveflownindroves

toManda,anislandlyingnexttoLamu.

Passengers arethencarriedbyboattoan

arrayofthatch­roofedvillasandhotels

dottingthecoastlineoneithersideofthe

channelofseasloshingintotheIndian

Ocean. Setapartfromthefanciervillas,

theoldtownofLamu,famousforits

carvedArabesquedoorways,isa mes­

merisinglabyrinthofalleyswherecars

arebannedanddonkeysholdsway.

Yetit isa bubblethatthemalevolent

wouldlovetoburst.Forthepastfew

yearsthepeopleofLamuhavebeen

lappedbya waveofAfghanherointhatis

smuggledinboatsfromPakistanand

Yemenforonwardtransport.Toomany

localyoungstershaveacquireda tastefor

it.Anotherthreatisposedbythejihad­

istsofal­Shabab,basedupthecoastin

Somalia,only100km(62miles)asthe

fish­eagleflies.Theyhavebecomemore

active.IfyoucrossfromLamutothe

mainlandandheadsouthbyroad,you

mustjoina convoy;a curfewhasbeen

enforcedatdusk.InJanuaryKenya’s

interiorministerdeclaredLamucounty,

whichincludesa chunkofthemainland,

tobe“adisturbedarea”.

PeacehasprevailedonLamuand

Mandasincetwolethalkidnappingsof

Westernersin 2011 ruinedtourismfora

while.In 2014 al­Shababmassacred 47

non­MuslimKenyansinanattackona

nearbymainlandvillage.Twoyearsago

thejihadistskilledthreeAmericansina

dawnattackona discreetmilitarycamp

acrossfromLamuisland.

“Theywouldlovetohavea goattour­

istsinLamuitself,”meaningtheisland,

saysa resident.Butthelocals,hereck­

ons,wouldbequicktohandoveranyone

amongthemvoicingpro­jihadistsenti­

ment,becausetheeconomydependsso

heavilyontourism.Anotherkidnapping

couldspelldisaster.Thebeautifulbubble

feelssafeenough.Crossyourfingers.

Kenya

Lamu, anisland bubble

L AMU

Atouristhavenfearsjihad,drugsandmodernity

Justdon’tstraytoofar

Amadou  Bah  of  Action  Mines  Guinée,  an

ngo.  Rusal,  a  huge  Russian  aluminium

producer with three mines in Guinea, has

stopped  operations  at  its  refinery  in  Uk­

raine,  which  processes  bauxite  mined  in

Guinea.  Its  junta  recently  suspended  an

honorary  consul  from  Ukraine,  presum­

ably to keep Mr Putin sweet. 

On  February  24th,  as  Russian  tanks

were rolling into Ukraine, Mohamed Ham­

dan  Dagalo,  a  powerful  Sudanese  general

known as Hemedti, was hobnobbing with

Russian officials. Russia has long sought a

military presence at Port Sudan on the Red

Sea  and  reportedly  buys  smuggled  gold

from  the  country.  But  in  the  coming

months Sudanese angry at high bread pric­

es  (see  earlier  article)  may  renew  protests

against their Russian­backed junta. 

Russia has tried to extend its reach be­

yond  a  few  rickety  states.  It  is  the  biggest

arms  exporter  to  Africa.  Its  trade  with  the

continent has increased since 2014, though

it still accounts for just 2% of Africa’s trade

in goods with the rest of the world. Krem­

lin­linked firms have formed an Africa­fo­

cused  trade  association.  A  subsidiary  of

veb (a bank under sanctions) has shares in

Afreximbank, a development bank.

For  most  countries  Russia  is  but  one

player  among  many.  Like  many  African

leaders, João Lourenço, Angola’s president

since 2017, has tried to build a “portfolio of

foreign­policy  interests”,  notes  Ricardo

Soares  de  Oliveira  of  Oxford  University.

Angola  sells  its  oil  to  China,  has  an  imf

programme and digs for diamonds with Al­

rosa,  a  Russian  miner.  “Historically  we

have  relations  with  all  these  countries.  I

don’t see it as a major issue,” says an Ango­

lan cabinet minister. 

Ethiopia, which did not vote at the un,

is  in  a  similar  spot.  Russia  is  its  largest

arms  supplier.  At  the  unRussia  has  sty­

mied  efforts  to  constrain  Ethiopia’s  gov­

ernment in a civil war against rebels from

its  northern  region  of  Tigray.  Gazprom­

bank  has  shown  interest  in  a  project  in

Ethiopia’s eastern Somali region. However,

“I’m not convinced we need [Russia] more

than the West,” says an Ethiopian official.

The newly fickle Gulf

Self­interest  and  fence­sitting  prevail  in

the  Middle  East,  too.  The  United  Arab

Emirates  (uae)  shocked  America  by  ab­

staining in the un Security Council on Feb­

ruary 25th. The Arab League’s statement on

the war three days later did not even men­

tion  Russia.  Though  their  governments

voted  in  favour  of  the  General  Assembly

motion,  officials  in  Egypt  and  other  Gulf

states argue that this is not their war: they

have no formal alliances with either side. 

Oil  is  one  reason.  Saudi  Arabia  is  keen

to  preserve  opec+,  an  alliance  of  big  pro­

ducers  of  which  it  and  Russia  are  the  big­

gest. Weapons are another factor. Egypt is

the  region’s  second­biggest  recipient  of

American military aid. But President Abd­

el­Fattah al­Sisi has sought to diversify, in­

cluding by buying Russian fighter jets.

Gulf  states  have  relied  on  America  for

protection. But they now think its security

umbrella  has  holes.  Diplomats  hope  stay­

ing neutral on Ukraine will send a message

to America. “If we can’t count on you, you

can’t count on us,” as one puts it. 

Western governments are less likely to

chastise  African  countries  for  abstaining.

They  know  that  all  states  have  interests.

“It’s  very  unlikely  that  African  countries

will  be  forced  to  choose  a  side,”  says  Fo­

lashadé Soulé, an academic also at Oxford.

But if Russian firms struggle to find dol­

lars they will be less attractive to Africans.

“I  don’t  think  the  government  of  Sudan

wants  roubles,”  says  a  sanctions  lawyer.

Big  energy  or  mining  deals  often  involve

ancillary  Western  firms,  which  may  not

want Russians involved, if only for reputa­

tional  risk.  If  the  West  stops  buying  Rus­

sian  hydrocarbons,  that  too  could  have

knock­on effects on African buyers. 

The  next  Russia­Africa  summit  is  due

later  this  year  in  Ethiopia.  Its  vip listwill

show how many “African friends”MrPutin

still has. It may well be less than 43.n