The Economist - UK (2022-03-19)

46 Middle East & Africa TheEconomistMarch19th 2022

Cashcropsandglobalwarming

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J

eremiahlettinglearnedaboutcoffee from his father. As a child in the late 1980s, he worked on his family’s oneacre (0.4 hectare) coffee farm in the hills of Nandi county, western Kenya. The cycle ran like clockwork: cultivate, plant, ripen, harvest and sell. “Every year was the same,” he says. “It was timely.” No longer. As the chairman of a coop erative, he now represents 303 smallholder coffee farmers who are suffering from droughts, unpredictable rains and rising temperatures that bring pests and disease. Warming weather in east Africa, the birth place of coffee, is already beginning to harm one of the region’s most important export crops, which is worth some $2bn a year (see chart). Overheating coffee shrubs also foreshadow the harm that may befall other vital crops such as tea, Kenya’s big gest export. And if coffee becomes more expensive or less tasty, it is not just farmers who will suffer, but the big chunk of hu manity who together glug down some 3bn cups of the stuff a day, at a cost of about $200bn a year. Some of the world’s best Coffea arabi cais grown on the fertile slopes of Mount Kenya. This variety of the plant, which originated in the highlands of Ethiopia and Sudan, produces beans that are tastier (and more valuable) than those from its poor cousin, Coffea canephora (known as robus ta), which often ends up in instant coffee granules. Arabicais also more finicky. Global warming may shrink the total area that is most suited to growing arabica beans by about half by 2050, according to a recent peerreviewed paper. Rising tem peratures may make some new places suit able for cultivating coffee, because they will raise the maximum altitude at which the crop can be grown, but such spots are relatively small and generally given over to other crops already. Overall “trends are mainly negative,” says Roman Grüter, one of the authors of the paper. Arabica plants, which account for roughly 60% of worldwide coffee produc tion and more than 98% of Kenya’s, thrive at altitudes of 1,0002,000 metres in equa torial regions and at temperatures between 18°C and 21°C. Over the past 60 years aver age temperatures in some of Kenya’s coffee regions have already risen by 1.1°C, reach ing daytime highs of 25°C, says Patricia Ny ing’uro, a climate scientist at Kenya’s Mete orological Department.

RosabellaLangat,whoownsa sixhect are estate with15,000 coffee bushes in Nandi,wokeonemorninglastyeartofind thattheentireharvestofhermostsought aftervarietyhadturnedfromriperedto deathlyblackfroma fungusthatfestersin highhumidityandwarmtemperatures.“It eatsintoourprofitability,”shesays.“We don’tgetmoneytoputbackintothatcrop.”

Coughingit up Although coffee is only Kenya’s fourth largestexport,itprovidesa lifelineinthe countryside.Theindustrydirectlyorindi rectly providesanincomeforabout6m people,accordingtodatafromtheKenyan government.Thatismorethana tenthof thepopulationof54m.Smallholderfarm ersgrow65%ofKenya’scoffeeontinyplots averagingjust0.16hectares. Manybarelyscrapebyasitis.MrLet tinghas about 500 coffee plants onhis plot.Lastyeartheirbeansfetched174,000 Kenyanshillings($1,500).“Thatwasa good price,”hesays,laughing.“Itwasanim

provementfromtheotheryears.”MrLet tingsupplementshisincomebyworking asanaccountant.Mostofthefarmersin hiscooperativecannottodosobecause theyneverwenttoschool.“Peoplearenot abletoraiseenoughschoolfees,”hesays. “Peopleare notevenable to havethree mealsa day.Sometimestwo.” Some farmers are trying to adapt to warmingbymovinguphill.Yetthispushes themintoareaslongusedforgrowingtea. Notonlyistherelessspacehigherup;the movehighlightshowwarmingalsothreat enstoharmtheteacrop,whichbringsin exportearningsofabout$1.2bna year,and supportsabout10%ofKenya’spopulation. Warmerweatherwillpushteaitselfhigher upnarrowingslopes. Kenya’sgovernmentfundedCoffeeRe searchInstituteistryingtofindotherways ofhelpingfarmersadapt,suchasencour agingthemto planttreestoshadetheir coffee bushes, or to switch to growing hardierrobustaplants.Itisalsotryingto breed a hybrid, Arabusta, which would combinethehardinessofrobustawiththe flavourofarabica. Coffeesnobsmayturn uptheirnosesatit,buttheymayhavelittle choicebuttoswallowit.“Whatelseisleft?” asksEfremFesaha,theownerofBoonBoo naCoffee,anAmericanroasterspecialis inginAfricanbeans.“Ifarabicaisgoingto begone,it’sgoingtobegone.” Inadditiontoa bittertaste,suchadap tationmaybringsocialcosts.Manysmall holderfarmersareatriskofbeingpushed outoftheindustryaltogetherbecausethey cannotaffordtheinvestmentsneededto protecttheircrops.Thismayleadtothe concentration of production in bigger firms,whichcanadapt. Sasini,oneofKenya’slargestpublicly listedagriculturalbusinesses,isalsoone ofitsbiggestcoffeegrowers.Thefirmhas installeddripandsprinklerirrigationon itscoffeeestatesandisreviewingplansto moveintonewcoffeegrowingregions,in cludingneighbouringcountries.“Itisvery possibleforustoexpandourcoffeebusi nessina newareawherewecanstartfrom scratch,” says Martin Ochieng, Sasini’s groupmanagingdirector. Anotheroptionmaybeentirelynewva rieties.ResearchersattheRoyalBotanic GardensinKew,inLondon,areinvestigat inga wildtypeofcoffee,Coffeastenophylla, firstrecordedbya Scottishbotanistin1834. Itisdeliciousandcanalsotaketheheat. Butitproducesloweryieldsthanexisting commercialvarietiesanditmaybeyears beforeit iswidelygrown.Withouta break throughofsomesort,caffeineaddictsmay faceafuturetooghastlytocontemplate, warnsVernLongofWorldCoffeeResearch, anindustryfundedbody.“Ifwedon’thave theinnovationtorespondtoclimatechal lenges,”shesays,“we’rejustgoingtobe drinkingsyntheticcoffee.”n

N AIROBI Climate change will hurt one of east Africa’smainexports

Come and smell it East African coffee exports January 2022, 60kg bags, ’000

Source:ICO

*Madagascar,Zambia,Zimbabwe

Burundi 25

Rwanda 21

Kenya 37 Tanzania 120

Ethiopia 220

Uganda 402

Total 8

Others*

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