The Economist - USA (2019-08-17)

26 TheEconomistAugust 17th 2019

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A

s he concludedhis eighth round of

negotiations with the Taliban on Au-

gust 12th, Zalmay Khalilzad, America’s en-

voy for Afghan peace talks, did not quite

say that a deal allowing the extraction of

American troops was done. But he came

close. After “productive” discussions in the

Qatari capital of Doha, the two sides were

down to “technical details”, he said. It has

taken a year of formal meetings to arrive at

this point (and years of quiet chats before

that). But it is too soon to celebrate. Those

details will be devilish.

The talks involve a relatively straight-

forward bargain. America will start pulling

its 14,000 troops out of Afghanistan. In re-

turn the Taliban will promise that Afghan

territory will not become a staging ground

for international terrorist groups such as

al-Qaeda and Islamic State. That would sat-

isfy the main demand of Taliban insur-

gents, and address the problem that led

America to invade 18 years ago. “I hope this

is the last Eid where #Afghanistan is at

war,” Mr Khalilzad tweeted, referring to

this week’s Muslim festival (Kabul resi-

dents marking it are pictured).

But those negotiations were “the easy

part”, says Laurel Miller, a former State De-

partment official now with the Interna-

tional Crisis Group, a think-tank. Mr Kha-

lilzad also wants the Taliban to agree to a

ceasefire. And he expects the Taliban to talk

to other Afghans about a political settle-

ment and, by early September, agree on a

loose “road-map” towards achieving one.

That, the Americans hope, would obviate

the need for presidential polls that are due

to be held in Afghanistan on September

28th and that are likely to result in the usu-

al bickering over alleged electoral fraud.

Mr Khalilzad insists that all these ele-

ments must be part of the package. But it is

far from clear what America’s red lines are.

Many Afghans, particularly those in power

today, fear that America is likely to make

big concessions in its rush for the door. It

may, for example, settle for a lull in vio-

lence rather than a formal ceasefire.

The Washington Posthas reported that

America will initially reduce its force in Af-

ghanistan by between 5,000 and 6,000

troops. “A substantial withdrawal starting

before the end of the summer is already in

the works,” says one source. “Part of the ur-

gency of getting the us-Taliban deal done is

to maintain the pretence that the first stage

of uswithdrawal is a result of that agree-

ment.” If a deal is achieved, the remaining

troops would probably be withdrawn grad-

ually while intra-Afghan bargaining—over

issues such as power-sharing and constitu-

tional change—is still under way.

One problem is that the Taliban have re-

fused to negotiate with other Afghans until

America announces a timetable for a com-

plete withdrawal. Even if America were to

do so, it is unclear whether the Taliban

would talk separately to the Afghan gov-

ernment, which it denounces as a puppet

regime, or only as part of a group of Afghan

political figures.

On July 7th and 8th such a group—in-

cluding government officials and opposi-

tion leaders, as well as members of civil

society and journalists—met 17 Taliban

Security in Afghanistan

Exit strategy

America and the Taliban appear closer to a deal. Clinching one will still be hard

Asia

27 CivilrightsinKashmir

28 DramainKyrgyzstan

28 A sultanainJava?

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