The Psychological Assessment of Political Leaderswith Other that we hypothesize are associated with the four types of
operational codes in the revised Holsti typology of belief systems dis-
cussed in chapter 9. The vertical axis in figure 14.1 is the continuum
of standard deviations for a leader's image of the political universe
(P-i) and approach to political strategy (I-i). The horizontal axis is
the continuum of standard deviations for a leader's attribution of his-
torical control to Self (P-4a) and Other (P-4b). These axes provide
coordinates for a leader's location within each quadrant.
Clinton's I-i score for approach to goals and his P-4a score for
self s control over historical development place his generalized image
of Self in the type C quadrant in figure 14.1. His P-i score for nature
of the political universe and P~4b score for other's control over his-
torical development locate his generalized image of Other in the
type A quadrant. The strategic and tactical interaction implications
in figure 14.1 for Bill Clinton's general operational code as a type C
leader are that his extremely cooperative strategic orientation and
very high sense of historical control are likely to lead him to initiate
the reciprocity tactics of reward and punish and to tempt him to
employ exploit and compel tactics if he encounters opposition.
However, the American leader's diagnostic propensity to view
Other as a friendly type A is likely to generate a cooperative outcome
unless Other directs hostility toward him. Because of his very high
sense of historical control, President Clinton is more likely to diag-
nose a hostile Other as a type DBF than as a type B opponent. If Clin-
ton takes the strategic initiative against a hostile Other, he is less
likely to use bluff or appease tactics and more likely to employ reci-
procity or compel and exploit tactics.
President Clinton: Cognitive Manager in TroublePeter Suedfeld and Philip E. Tetlock
While the content of a leader's beliefs may dispose him toward dif-
ferent decisions, it also seems reasonable to hypothesize that a presi-
dent's cognitive style in decision making and decision implementa-
tion has an important influence on the fate of his proposals. The
following analysis of President Clinton's leadership is based on a rel-
atively parsimonious and, to some extent, even simplistic model.
This is the assessment of the president as a cognitive manager. The