Assessing Leadership Style: Trait Analysis

The Psychological Assessment of Political Leaders

approached and, presumably, as the need for a peaceful resolution

seemed more pressing. These findings were not compatible with our

previous conclusions that the nearing of military conflict leads to

disruptive stress and a consequent reduction in complexity (e.g.,

Suedfeld and Tetlock 1977); Hussein may have thought that he had

a chance to break up the coalition and delay or even avoid the long-

threatened attack.

TABLE 18.2. CHRONOLOGY OF THE GULF CRISIS AND THE COMPLEXITY OF
SADDAM HUSSEIN

Event

1990

Peace

Pre-Invasion

Invasion of Kuwait begins

Invasion complete

Iraq consolidates conquest of Kuwait;

UN negotiations and sanctions:

Security Council (SC) announces

trade embargo

U.S. and Egypt announce they will

defend Saudi Arabia if it is attacked

Iraq takes Westerners hostage

SC authorizes naval interception

to enforce embargo

Diplomatic attempts continue:

Secretary-General Perez de

Cuellar's mission to negotiate

withdrawal fails

Hussein offers free oil to Third World

nations that break blockade

SC announces air embargo

SC announces withdrawal deadline

Hussein frees Western hostages

1991

U.S. Congress votes for armed action

if SC deadline is not met

SC deadline (not met)

Coalition-Iraq war

Coalition air attacks begin

Air war continues

Coalition air attacks suspended

Coalition ground attack begins

Iraq defeated

Postwar restructuring

Date

Dates M Score

May-July

June 28-Aug. 1

Aug. 2

Aug. 3 Aug. 2-9

Aug.-Sept.

Aug. 6 Aug. 10-24

Aug. 6

Aug. 25 Aug. 25-Sept. 24

Aug. 25

Oct.-Dec.

Sept. 2

Sept. 10

Sept. 25 Sept. 25-Dec. 2

Nov. 29

Dec. 6 Dec. 3-31

Jan. 12 Jan. 1-15

Jan. 15

Jan. 17 Jan 16-31

Feb. 1-22

Feb. 24

Feb. 24 Feb. 23-27

Feb. 27

Feb. 27-March 31

Hussein

Complexity

2.1

1.2

1.3

1.6

2.2

1.5

1.9

1.4

1.2

2.2

1.2

3.1

1.4

2.8